Opposition leader Raila Odinga is on an aggressive plot to ring-fence his traditional backyards to avoid mistakes committed by former President Uhuru Kenyatta in dealing with President William Ruto .
Mr Kenyatta allowed Dr Ruto a free hand in his populous Mt Kenya backyard, a scenario that Dr Ruto exploited to endear himself to the region in the run-up to the 2022 General Election.
Mr Odinga and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are already toying with the idea of backing President Ruto in his re-election , but still want to sway influence in his backyards of Nyanza, Coast and Western for purposes of retaining bargaining power.
In the last election, Mr Kenyatta backed Mr Odinga but faced an uphill task of mobilising his Mt Kenya backyard to the ODM leader’s fold, a situation that probably, the ODM brigade seeks to avoid.
In the end, Dr Ruto beat Mr Odinga in the region, with his UDA party whitewashing Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee in terms of seats in the County Assemblies, National Assembly and the Senate.
Keen to maintain grip, especially on his key political bastions, Mr Odinga’s party has launched activities aimed at strengthening the outfit, to bolster its chances of capturing power or boosting his possible coalition partner to have a central role in the next administration.
The thinking by the party officials is that should President Ruto succeed on this front, Mr Odinga would lose his influence and bargaining power going into the 2027 General Election. Since the impeachment of Mr Gachagua, President Ruto has made more trips to Nyanza, Coast and Western in a shift of focus from Mt Kenya that handed him nearly three million votes.
The latest scheme by Mr Odinga comes even as Kenya’s main political players begin to shift focus to the 2027 election in earnest, as they embark on plans to strengthen their parties and establish possible strategic partnerships to propel them to power.
The top politicians, including President Ruto and his 2022 main opponent – Mr Odinga, are playing a high-stakes game of numbers, where alliances and power dynamics are meticulously orchestrated to ensure dominance in the political battlefield.
President Ruto has taken a swipe at his opponents who are gearing up to challenge him in the 2027 presidential election.
“There are many leaders here who are pushing me (to react) but I ask them to relax. The real test will be in 2027, let everyone get prepared in the meantime,” he said.
Even though President Ruto did not give details of his planned deal, Nation established that he is crafting a possible re-election formula with Mr Odinga, who has since embarked on a strategy to popularize his outfit ahead of the 2027 pre-election talks.
This, analysts say, also emanates from the possible shift of the Mt Kenya region which overwhelmingly voted for the Kenya Kwanza administration in the 2022 poll.
Mr Odinga has exuded confidence that he will secure the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC), a position that would lock him out of the 2027 poll unless he resigns to make a sixth stab.
The term for the Chairperson of the AUC is four years, and the position can be renewed once, meaning that should Mr Odinga win the February 2025 election, he shall have served only two years by the 2027 election in Kenya.
ODM Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi on Tuesday said they had embarked on activities to shore their popularity, maintaining that “nothing is wrong with strengthening our outfit.”
“We have started the process with grassroots elections to give our party fresh impetus and the main focus is to strengthen the party.
“We are still two and a half years to 2027 and talks of coalition building will come and we shall handle everything step by step,” Mr Osotsi told Nation.
ODM Director of Election Junet Mohamed, who is also the Secretary General of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition has been accompanying the President on his Coastal tour since Monday, where he has reiterated support for the Ruto administration.
Mr Mohamed has teamed up with their former members who joined the broad-based government including Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi in advancing support for the government and possible Ruto re-election.
“Our tactics will change to respond to the realities of the day, but with no compromises on our end goal - a democratic and prosperous Kenya,” Mr Mohamed recently said.
“When the elections come in 2027, ODM will be the party to form the next government. But it is only possible if our supporters are well prepared because we have a manifesto, we have faith and we have the capacity and strength,” Mr Odinga said in Vihiga at the weekend.
But the ODM leader also fell short of confirming his handshake with President Ruto, as he chided former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua over his sentiments that he had set traps to prevent him from accessing State House.
"Nimeona juzi mtu mwingine anabweka kule ati tumeweka mitego kila mahali, huwezi kupenya. Mtego ya aina gani? Ati aliwekea baba mtego, eti hakuna mambo ya handshake, na nusu mkate. Akowapi sasa Gachagua? (Someone used to claim that they placed traps all over, to prevent baba’s access. Which traps? Trapping Baba! They claimed that neither handshake nor ‘nusu mkate’ would happen. Where is Gachagua now?) Mr Odinga posed.
President Ruto leveraged his camaraderie with Mr Odinga to push for the impeachment of Mr Gachagua and is keen to galvanise the Western bloc (Nyanza, Western and Rift Valley) as a potential cushion against a possible loss of support from Mt Kenya.
Analysts believe that securing Western and Nyanza, the traditional bases of Mr Odinga could be part of a strategy to counter potential challenges in the politically significant Mount Kenya region.
Already the President is banking on Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Cooperative Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya in Western to lock the region in his favour.
He is also banking on Mr Odinga’s popularity at the Coast and hopes to tap on Blue Economy CS Ali Hassan Joho’s support to galvanise support in the region.
The political foes-turned-friends, Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga, enjoy wide support across the country, having been the winner and first runner-up respectively in the 2022 presidential election, accumulating a combined total of 14.1 million votes.
President Ruto garnered 7,176,141 (50.49 percent) against Mr Odinga’s 6,942,930 (48.85 percent) in the election with their parties; United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), respectively, securing the highest number of seats in the National Assembly and Senate.
Usawa Kwa Wote Party leader Mwangi Wa Iria who backed Mr Odinga’s presidential bid in 2022 argues that President Ruto’s coalition with Mr Odinga will guarantee him automatic re-election.
The former Murang’a governor believes that the two leaders who secured a total of 14.1 million votes in the last election enjoy support in most parts of the country and will win if they remain in the same team.
“I want to tell the people of Mt Kenya the truth, we are on half term of William Ruto and I have looked at it from far, and I can see Ruto being re-elected in 2027.
“His votes could be more than 70 percent. I’m not saying this to make somebody happy, but just do your calculations well, what he needs to do is to cool down the political temperatures in Mt Kenya by addressing our issues,” Mr Wa Iria said.
He went on: “Those thinking that because Gachagua was been impeached, William won’t be re-elected, I can tell you he will be re-elected. The last election result was 50-50, the coming one he will win by a wider margin.”
“This is a national coalition and those thinking it’s a joke should know that even if a few people of the 14 million left and we have 10 million intact, the re-election is real.”
“Tuko kwa ground mbaya sana (We are already on the ground aggressively). There is only one way to unseat a leader who is democratically elected. The only way is through a vote and not social media, Mr Joho said, scolding at Dr Ruto’s social media critics.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, a former ODM Chairman has also hinted at Mr Odinga’s bastions backing President Ruto in the coming election.
“President Ruto and the entire Rift Valley supported us in 2007. It is only fair for us to support him as a community in the next General Election,” Mr Mbadi said while in Nyanza last week. He went on: “Let us ignore any presidential candidate if Raila is not contesting and instead support President Ruto as a region.”
On Monday, Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, a former ODM Director of Political Affairs also declared support for the Head of State while accompanying him on a tour of the Coast region.
“President Ruto has opened a new chapter of leadership in the country by bringing forth the broad-based government.
“In Nyanza, we have walked with you people of this region and we have decided to support President Ruto today, tomorrow and forever,” said Mr Wandayi.
Former CS Moses Kuria, a senior economic advisor in President Ruto's administration recently let the cat out of the bag and announced the coming of a major political movement involving the president and Mr Odinga.
"Apart from the economic calculations I'm making in government, there's another political calculation that I'm making.
"I never go wrong...what I can see ahead is that in 2027, a new national movement same as the 2002 Rainbow moment, is loading and those with brains should join because you will be locked out," Mr Kuria said.
He was referring to the National Alliance Rainbow Coalition (Narc) which propelled former President Mwai Kibaki to power.
The movement had Mr Kibaki, Mr Odinga, former vice president Kijana Wamalwa, Narc leader Charity Ngilu, the late Prof George Saitoti, former vice president Moody Awori and Kalonzo Musyoka among other political luminaries.
