Ruto, Sifuna tie in latest presidential opinion poll
President William Ruto (left) and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.
President William Ruto and Linda Mwananchi leader Edwin Sifuna are neck and neck in the race for the presidency, raising the prospect of a tightly contested 2027 General Election, according to a new opinion poll.
The survey by TIFA Research, released on Thursday, puts the two leaders at 31 per cent each, suggesting that neither has a clear advantage as the country heads towards next year's elections.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka trails at nine per cent, followed by Jubilee Party Leader Fred Matiang'i at five per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at four per cent.
Presenting the findings in Nairobi, TIFA researcher Tom Wolf said Mr Sifuna's popularity had surged since he moved from ODM to lead the Linda Mwananchi faction, which has since established itself as a political outfit.
"Mr Sifuna's ratings have sharply increased since he now has a political party, compared to previous polls when he was still in ODM," said Mr Wolf.
Nairobi Senator and Linda Mwananchi Movement leader Edwin Sifuna during a Sunday service at Jesus Teaching Ministry in Nairobi on October 18, 2026.
The Nairobi senator's support has risen steadily from 10 per cent in May to 15 per cent in July and 31 per cent in the latest survey conducted between October 6 and November 11.
President Ruto, on the other hand, polled at 24 per cent in both May and July before rising to 31 per cent. His support has grown consistently from 18 per cent in August last year.
"In this situation, both President Ruto and Mr Sifuna have gained, showing an interesting race ahead of 2027," Mr Wolf said.
Regionally, Mr Sifuna enjoys his strongest support in Western at 55 per cent, followed by Nairobi (39 per cent), the Coast (36 per cent) and Nyanza (31 per cent).
Interestingly, he commands 32 per cent support in Mt Kenya, surpassing Mr Gachagua, who has 11 per cent despite being considered the region's political heavyweight.
Mr Sifuna also polled 31 per cent in the South Rift, traditionally considered President Ruto's political stronghold, while his weakest support was in Ukambani at eight per cent and Northern Kenya at 20 per cent.
President Ruto's strongest support is in North Eastern at 62 per cent and the Central Rift at 59 per cent. He also enjoys 40 per cent support at the Coast and 35 per cent in Nyanza.
However, his popularity drops to 11 per cent in Mt Kenya, while in the South Rift he trails Mr Sifuna with 29 per cent.
On Presidential support by political parties, 42 per cent of ODM supporters are behind President Ruto while 33 per cent are behind Mr Sifuna.
President William Ruto addresses members of the public after commissioning the Kisii County Aggregation and Industrial Park at Tongeri in Bomachoge Borabu Constituency.
In UDA, 85 per cent of supporters are behind President Ruto while only seven per cent support Mr Sifuna. Linda Mwananchi supporters back Mr Sifuna at 90 per cent, while only two per cent are behind President Ruto and another three per cent support Mr Musyoka.
Mr Sifuna also has 35 per cent support among DCP supporters, with Mr Gachagua coming at 25 per cent, though only eight per cent of Wiper supporters are behind Mr Sifuna's presidential bid compared to Mr Musyoka’s 80 per cent.
President Ruto has 14 per cent of Jubilee supporters, and 57 per cent of them are behind Dr Matiangí.
On the preferred running mate, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki leads with 50 per cent, followed by Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga at 12 per cent and Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho at nine per cent. Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya trails at two per cent.
The findings come amid ODM's negotiations with President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA), with the Orange party demanding the deputy presidency and an equal share of government positions.
UDA remains the most popular political party nationally at 25 per cent, followed by Linda Mwananchi at 17 per cent. ODM has dropped to third place with 10 per cent, while DCP, Wiper and Jubilee command nine, five and four per cent respectively.
Mr Wolf attributed ODM's decline to Mr Sifuna's departure, saying a significant section of the party's supporters had followed him to Linda Mwananchi.
The new outfit leads in Western with 40 per cent, while ODM has fallen to 10 per cent, trailing UDA at 22 per cent. UDA dominates the Central Rift and Northern Kenya with 56 and 60 per cent, respectively, while ODM retains its strongest support in Nyanza at 33 per cent.
DCP enjoys 27 per cent support in Mt Kenya but has no measurable backing in Ukambani.
On opposition unity, 45 per cent of respondents want the coalition to settle on its presidential candidate by March next year, while 35 per cent want the decision made before the end of this year.
Despite the differences over the timing, 57 per cent believe the opposition will field a joint presidential candidate in 2027, while seven per cent think the coalition will fail to unite.
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