Sifuna's make-or-break decision: Options amid push to oust him from ODM

Seemingly unwilling to reverse course, the Senate deputy minority whip now faces a make-or-break decision on his political future ahead of the next polls. While Mr Sifuna has several political options, none appears straightforward.

An outspoken critic of any formal endorsement of President Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid, he finds himself navigating a fraught political landscape marked by internal ODM turmoil and shifting alliances — with his next move likely to have far-reaching implications for his career.

Political analyst Javas Bigambo says Senator Sifuna has multiple choices  some promising, others potentially disastrous — depending on how he views himself politically.

“If he thinks he is a tiger but is not in a forest of tigers — instead finding himself in a swimming pool — then he will struggle. There are people cheering him on who are not voters in Nairobi and who will forget him the way Ababu Namwamba was forgotten when his downfall came,” said Mr Bigambo.

He added that Mr Sifuna has been too open about his political strategy.

“In politics, you don’t lay all your cards on the table. It is easy to predict his next moves, which points to a lack of strategy. Sometimes wisdom dictates that you keep everyone guessing,” Mr Bigambo said.

Read: ODM without Raila: Those plotting exit ahead of 2027 polls

Nonetheless, Mr Sifuna appears almost determined to force ODM to expel him, repeatedly daring the party to take action.

Apart from spearheading the Kenya Moja Movement, he has increasingly associated himself with the United Opposition, attending its public events and fuelling speculation about his political allegiance.

The United Opposition includes the Jubilee Party led by retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, whom Mr Sifuna has publicly defended over his role in Raila Odinga’s failed 2022 presidential bid.

It also includes former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) and Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Patriotic Front, among others.

The opposition alliance is expected to enjoy significant support in Nairobi due to entrenched ethnic voting patterns, making any of these outfits a potentially viable political home for the first-term senator.

Speaking during the burial of Embakasi North MP James Gakuya’s mother in Murang’a on Saturday, Mr Gachagua openly hinted at Mr Sifuna’s possible defection.

“We are waiting for many people, including Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who want to join us,” said the former Mathira MP.

At the same event, Mr Sifuna hit out at unnamed leaders he accused of attempting to dictate his associations.

“I will not allow anyone to choose my friends or enemies, or decide which funerals I can attend. I was elected Nairobi senator by all tribes,” he said, invoking his now-familiar reminder of the offices he holds.

However, Mr Bigambo cautioned that Mr Sifuna must assess whether he has a solid and loyal constituency.

“The influence he enjoys was cultivated and cemented by Raila Odinga. It is not entirely organic. Nairobi can turn against anyone at any time. He can choose to work within ODM, destroy it, or decamp,” he said.

ODM powerbrokers

He warned that aligning with individuals previously regarded as Mr Odinga’s political adversaries could alienate ODM’s core support base.

“He may receive cheers from the Mountain but jeers from Raila’s loyal supporters,” he said.

Another option for Mr Sifuna is to remain in ODM and fight from within, leveraging support from senior figures such as party leader Oburu Oginga and deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, who have defended his stance.

However, this path depends on his ability to convince ODM powerbrokers that the party’s future lies in disengaging from President Ruto’s administration and charting an independent political course.

His vocal criticism of the broad-based government resonates with sections of ODM’s support base who feel disenfranchised and see him as a principled dissenting voice aligned with the party’s pro-people ideology.

A third option would be to quit ODM before the planned National Delegates Conference, slated for the first quarter of this year, and run as an independent candidate in 2027.

In August 2025, Mr Sifuna hinted at quitting the party should ODM formally endorse President Ruto’s re-election. Together with Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, he threatened to lead a mass walkout.

Speaking at a women’s empowerment event in Lukhome, Trans Nzoia County, Mr Sifuna was categorical that he would not be party to any ODM decision backing President Ruto.

Read: ‘ODM won’t dissolve despite President Ruto deal’

Mr Bigambo warned that while Mr Sifuna is a sober politician, strategy and restraint must guide his decisions.

“He is ready to make enemies within ODM and appears to see himself as larger than life in the party,” he said.

At a time when Kenyan politics is in flux, Mr Sifuna’s opposition to the broad-based government has defined him as a bold dissenting voice — but whether that stance translates into a sustainable political base remains uncertain.

“Sifuna can choose to destroy ODM from within and bolt, or sink with it. But like Marcus Brutus, the same sword he seeks to destroy the party with could end his political life,” Mr Bigambo said.

In the 2022 General Election, Mr Sifuna won the Nairobi senatorial seat with 716,651 votes out of 2,415,310 registered voters, defeating UDA’s Bishop Margaret Wanjiru, who garnered 524,021 votes.

His tally surpassed that of ODM Woman Representative Esther Passaris, who received 698,929 votes, but fell slightly short of the 721,211 votes won by the late Raila Odinga in Nairobi City.

Voting in cosmopolitan Nairobi has historically followed ethnic lines, with Kikuyu, Luhya, Kamba, Luo and Kisii communities dominating the political landscape.

In 2022, the Azimio coalition swept most contests in the county, buoyed by support from all major communities except the Kikuyu.

With Kikuyu, Kamba and sections of Luhya and Kisii now aligning with the United Opposition, the political arithmetic could favour Mr Sifuna should he emerge as the coalition’s candidate — especially in the absence of Raila Odinga, long the central figure in Nairobi politics.

Follow our WhatsApp channel for breaking news updates and more stories like this.

[email protected]