Tension is building up in the opposition following the surprise re-emergence of key political figures who abandoned Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga or took a low profile soon after the 2022 election loss and at the height of his anti-government protests.
Their comeback into the national limelight – following more than a year of conspicuous absence – has been linked to the possible opportunities from the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) recommendations that has proposed new offices for the opposition camp and Mr Odinga’s departure from national politics, should he win the African Union Commission chairmanship next February.
The Nadco report, which was endorsed by President William Ruto and Mr Odinga on Friday, proposes the creation of the Official Leader of Opposition with two deputies. It also seeks to create the office of the Prime Minister charged with coordinating government programmes, akin to the current Prime Cabinet Secretary role.
Some politicians are also said to be angling to succeed Mr Odinga in both his ODM party and in the Azimio coalition.
Some of the key players who have made a surprise comeback— after missing in action or only making brief appearances in political activities since 2022 — include former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, National Assembly Minority Party Whip Junet Mohamed, former Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, Kanu party leader Gideon Moi, among others.
Sunday Nation has established that the development has since rattled some politicians who have stood with Mr Odinga following his loss to President Ruto in the 2022 poll.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya are some of the individuals rattled by the re-emergence of Ms Ngilu and Mr Joho.
From left: Former Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, former Taita-Taveta Governor Granton Samboja, Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga, former Taveta MP Naomi Shaban and former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho during a campaign rally in Taveta town on February 22, 2022.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
Critics have linked Ms Ngilu’s comeback to possible angling for one of the deputy Opposition Leader positions, a scenario that could complicate matters for Mr Musyoka who is considered best placed to occupy the Opposition Leader’s slot should Mr Odinga exit the local political scene. Both Mr Kalonzo and Ms Ngilu come from Kitui County.
Ms Ngilu is banking on the renewed push for gender parity that will see a woman picked for one of the slots.
That she showed up in public in a meeting addressed by President Ruto to celebrate the seven women governors—and in which the President praised her for her pioneering role—shows her ability to adapt, and might go a long way if the Bomas talks report is adopted by Parliament.
Days earlier, Ms Ngilu joined Mr Odinga in Homa Bay County where she asked; “Baba (Mr Odinga) umepangaje? (Baba, what’s the plan?)” before asking him to give directions on his succession plan.
In the run up to the 2022 elections, the former Prime Minister had named some of these leaders as part of his 22-member Cabinet.
But when he lost, some of the once prominent Azimio figures disappeared from the public eye.
And in the intricate chessboard of Kenyan politics, where ambitions, alliances, and strategic moves shape the narrative of a nation, they have been making a comeback into national limelight, re-emerging from the depths of political obscurity.
Mr Joho and Mr Mohamed on Thursday joined Mr Odinga in the ODM mass voter registration in Wajir County where local leaders, in a single script, sustained pressure on the former PM to endorse the former Mombasa County boss as his successor.
In his planned government, Mr Odinga had nominated Mr Joho to the Land’s docket.
Since Mr Odinga’s loss, Mr Joho and Mr Mohammed have kept off the political scene, giving most of the ODM activities a wide berth. Mr Mohamed, whose life revolved around hopping from one chopper to the next in the company of Mr Odinga during the campaigns for the 2022 poll, was in January served with a show cause letter for skipping party activities.
Mr Joho on Thursday defended his absence, stating that he has always briefed his party boss on his whereabouts.
“Some people have been spreading falsehoods that I have disappeared from party affairs, but today I want to set the record straight. Everything I have been doing Baba was well aware,” said Mr Joho.
He explained: “Since joining politics, there is no decision or step I took without the knowledge of my party leader. The government that will be coming in 2027 belongs to ODM, and there are two things. If it is not Raila Odinga it will be Hassan Joho. The person I can forgo my ambitions for without question is Raila, but the others like my brother Oparanya, we will fight in-house and then we will decide.”
Mr Joho stressed that he is not known to back down when pursuing his political interests, and if it means putting up a fight, he is ready.
During the Wajir event, Mr Mohamed, who was among the leaders blamed for bungling the opposition campaigns, said: “Just like a father leaves his sons in charge of the homestead when he’s away on safari, ODM also has energetic sons who will be in charge of operations when Mr Odinga is away on AUC duties in Ethiopia. The party has two deputy leaders and I am also there as ‘mtu ya mkono’ (errand boy).”
Recently, during an event in Migori County attended by ODM chairman, nominated MP John Mbadi, Mr Mohamed told off his critics, insisting that his political sabbatical has ended. He said he just took a break and some people thought he could have been replaced, with others claiming that he is not from Suna East.
For his part, Mr Oparanya had in an earlier interview told Nation that he will be interested in succeeding Mr Odinga in ODM should he get the AUC job. Mr Oparanya, the deputy party leader, was with Mr Odinga through the street protests.
“If he succeeds in his AUC bid and may not be available to play local politics, I will ask for the party leadership. I know there could be other people also interested,” said Mr Oparanya.
The tension between Mr Joho and Mr Oparanya is also fuelled by the prospects of the proposed Office of Official Leader of Opposition and two deputies. The two are angling for one of the slots.
Although some individuals within Azimio are fronting Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka for the slot, with the two deputies going to ODM and Narc leader Martha Karua, Mr Oparanya has since suggested that he was ready to take up the slot since ODM is the largest party within the coalition.
“The decision about who takes that position should our party leader take the continental role would be based on numbers in Parliament. You cannot lead a team if your party has no members in the two houses. ODM will pick the holder,” said Mr Oparanya recently.
Ms Ngilu, who has in the past mastered the art of correctly predicting the direction of the country’s politics and aligning herself with the winning coalition—a trend that ended in 2022 — is also back in national politics and is among those putting pressure on Mr Odinga to make his succession plan clear.
“I have been with Baba for all my years in politics. It’s important that he tells us what he has in store for us with the AUC politics in mind. We’re allies in his political circle and when a father leaves his children behind, he must organise them. Organise us well. You organised us in 2022,” Ms Ngilu said.
She has since made public appearances in political events, including G7 strategy launch in Nairobi County by women governors that was graced by President Ruto.
Ms Ngilu, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru who is also the Council of Governors chair, former Bomet Governor, the late Joyce Laboso were the pioneer women governors in 2017.
Speaking during the G7 event, Ms Ngilu challenged President Ruto to consider Mr Odinga’s team in “his secret handshake”.
For Mr Moi, his re-emergence has led to suspicion of Mr Musyoka’s scheme to take over Azimio from Mr Odinga. Recently, he hosted Mr Musyoka, Mr Eugene Wamalwa, and Mr Mwangi Wa Iria at his Kabarak home.
The trio even flew back to Nairobi from Mr Moi’s airstrip at his vast Kabarak farm after addressing a rally in Nakuru.
The original One Kenya Alliance (OKA) had brought together Wiper leader Mr Musyoka, Mr Moi of Kanu, Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula and ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi, who came together in protest against Mr Odinga’s plan to run in the 2022 poll.
Reasons for the alliance’s revival mirrors the ones in the run up to the last poll that were designed to isolate Mr Odinga and force him into backing another candidate for the top seat.
An ODM official in the succession battle told Sunday Nation off the record that some of the politicians have realised that they could benefit from the opportunities presented by the nine Nadco-linked Bills in Parliament and Mr Odinga’s possible exit from local politics.
“But people have said that they are coming back when it is too late,” said the official.
Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni said they welcome the politicians, but they can never trust them with certain responsibilities in the coalition.
“After the push and pull that we had after the elections and having produced the Nadco report, there are new opportunities. I am not surprised to see those who were lukewarm and those who sat on the fence re-emerge,” said Mr Kioni.
He added: “As to whether they will be received well is another issue altogether. Those of us who were in the forefront of the ‘mandamano ’ will have to rethink how we will engage with them so that they don’t abandon us when given responsibility.”
University lecturer and political analyst Professor Macharia Munene said those making a comeback are doing so because of the opportunities.
“If Nadco is adopted, there are jobs to be created. There are those angling for positions. Whoever is given the Official Leader of Opposition will have a good job.
“Maybe Charity Ngilu is being fronted for one of the deputies. But this will create problems for Kalonzo because they are both from Kitui. If one of them gets, the other will lose out. It is a balancing act, that not everybody will be comfortable going forward,” added the don.
Also previously playing a prominent role in 2022 was former Meru Governor Mr Peter Munya, who was forced to give up his gubernatorial ambitions for a promised Cabinet slot in Mr Odinga’s administration that never was.
In the chessboard of Meru politics, Mr Munya is orchestrating a masterful return, and the pieces are moving in intriguing ways.
His resurgence is sparking curiosity and speculation in a county that has emerged as one of the most vibrant bastions of Dr Ruto’s support in Mt Kenya region.
However, the return to Meru politics is not merely a return to familiar territory but the curving of the image of a man with ambitions. Two weeks ago, he signalled the return of the PNU to mainstream politics, leading the outfit’s 15th anniversary celebrations in an event attended by Mr Odinga.
