The push and pull in Nasa that could derail Raila’s swearing-in

The tussle between perceived hardliners and moderates in the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) is threatening the planned January 30 swearing-in of Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka.

Behind the scenes, the two sides are locked in a quiet war that could derail the much publicised oath, which the government has warned against.

But whichever side carries the day could eventually win the fight to shape Nasa’s future.

The source of this silent, but vicious, war is the whole question of the swearing-in and whether it can achieve the overall objective of delivering electoral justice after the coalition’s October 26 election boycott and the eventual victory of President Uhuru Kenyatta for his second term in office.

In private, the four principals are also said to be divided over the swearing-in even though they put up a united front in Machakos on Friday and are expected in Mombasa today for the launch of the People’s Assembly.

ELECTORAL JUSTICE

The perceived hardliners in the coalition argue that the only way to get electoral justice, the truth of what happened on August 8 – an election nullified by the Supreme Court – and ensure elections are not rigged in future is by ensuring that Mr Odinga is sworn in to put pressure on Jubilee.

They are also against dialogue or any power-sharing deal, something US Ambassador to Kenya Robert Godec and some religious leaders have been pushing for.

“Those holding this position also believe it will anger our core supporters who have been disappointed after the promised swearing-in was put off twice,” said an MP from the Nyanza region, who spoke in confidence, for fear of antagonising his colleagues. 

On the other hand, the perceived moderates argue the clamour for the swearing-in is too much ado about nothing as it will not have a bearing on Mr Kenyatta’s legitimacy as President. Besides, they reportedly say, it could trigger a brutal police reaction which will result in more deaths. The group prefers national dialogue instead, even though some are not opposed to the formation of the People’s Assemblies.  

Nasa insists Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka won the august poll but it accuses the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) of having conspired with the Jubilee Party to tamper with the tallying of presidential votes which ultimately denied Mr Odinga victory.

TRAITORS

Though a late entrant into Nasa, Mr Miguna Miguna has emerged as the face of the perceived hardliners. In public, the tough-talking lawyer often makes his position clear on TV talk shows and social media.

It is a stance he is said to hold behind closed doors – that Mr Odinga must be sworn in on January 30 and those opposed to the event are traitors. Dr David Ndii, the coalition’s top strategist who also chairs the People’s Assembly Organising Committee, is also said to be pushing hard for the oath with no room for compromise.

The entire committee is said to be fully behind the swearing-in and is doing everything to ensure the event comes to pass.

Other senior politicians said to back the swearing-in without room for dialogue are Siaya senator James Orengo, businessman Jimi Wanjigi, former Machakos senator Johnson Muthama, Kakamega senator Cleopha Malala, and ODM treasurer Ogla Karani.

Some of the key perceived moderates are leaders mainly in Ford Kenya, Wiper and ANC. They include Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana, Mr Musalia Mudavadi’s legal adviser Dan Ameyo, former deputy speaker Farah Maalim, MPs Ayub Savula (Lugari, ANC), Titus Khamala (Lurambi, ANC) and Richard Onyonka (Kitutu Chache South, Ford Kenya) – who has since endorsed President Kenyatta.

DIALOGUE

“My position is that dialogue is better than the swearing-in option. And remember the Jubilee administration has not said ‘no’ to dialogue but rather there are those among us (Nasa) who are saying they do not want dialogue,” Dr Boni Khalwale told the Nation. 

In a previous interview, Mr Maalim said he will not take part in any swearing-in ceremony.

Mr Malala, the Kakamega Senator, says the swearing-in was the only way to show Mr Odinga won the August 8 election. However, Jubilee’s President Kenyatta was declared winner before the Supreme Court nullified the results and ordered a repeat election on October 26 that the Nasa candidate boycotted.  

Mr Malala, who is behind the affidavit that seeks to bind Nasa MPs in openly supporting the swearing-in, argues that proper national dialogue will only happen after Mr Odinga has been declared the “People’s President”. 

“We get the motivation to swear in Mr Odinga because data in the IEBC servers shows he won on August 8. We want to swear him in because Kenyans elected him,” he said. The Senator did not, however, show evidence of such results, only indicating they will be revealed on January 30.

DECLARED WINNER

The coalition may have boxed itself in when it threatened to swear in Mr Odinga in the event that Mr Kenyatta was declared the winner of the repeat October 26 poll, which Nasa boycotted. The call has developed its own life and the coalition leadership finds itself in a difficult spot unable to go back out of fear of isolating its core support base.

“We have reached a point where we have no option but swear in the two leaders because that is what our supporters are demanding. The matter is totally out of our hands. You can see this in our supporters,” Mr John Mbadi, the Leader of Minority in the National Assembly, said.

He argues that the leaders would have had a different strategy had the demand for the swearing-in been so intense as it is today.

“One way of losing your support is by not doing what your supporters want. Sanctions are palpable. Our supporters are tired of postponements and they are not receptive to calls for dialogue. We have to swear in Mr Odinga.”

SUPPORT BASE

As it is, Nasa has no option but push on with the demand of its support base, which wants the swearing-in as a continuation of the message of defiance against Jubilee Party.

According to Dr Ndii, the swearing-in will give Nasa the opportunity to reclaim its “stolen victory on August 8, 2017 besides giving the people an opportunity to reclaim their sovereign power by having their elected leaders assume authority, entrench democracy and ensure that every vote counts.

He further argues that electoral justice is key for a stable, fair, prosperous nation in which every vote counts.

“We are not interested in boardroom deals or the so-called nusu mkate. In 2007 we had a boardroom deal but that did not solve our problem as a country. We are back where we were 10 years ago,” Dr Ndii says on why the swearing-in must go ahead.

PEOPLE'S VERDICT

Ms Karani, the ODM Treasurer, argues that the oath will be an affirmation of the people’s overwhelming verdict.

“We want Mr Odinga to be sworn in because that is God’s will as the people of Kenya elected him president,” she said.

So what after the swearing-in? Mr Mbadi argues that there will be confusion.

“Mr Kenyatta is an illegitimate president as far as we are concerned. We are sure that when sworn in, his supporters can regard Mr Odinga as an illegitimate president as we regard Mr Kenyatta. But Mr Odinga will also be legitimate in some areas the same way Mr Kenyatta will be in some.”

The position, the Nasa plan explains, will be bolstered by the People’s Assemblies in counties controlled by Nasa.