The impeachment of former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua has triggered a chain reaction in Mount Kenya with his camp and that of ex-president Uhuru Kenyatta jointly plotting a fierce war to oust President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) from the vote-rich region.
This unusual camaraderie between Mr Kenyatta’s and Mr Gachagua’s camps is reportedly fueling efforts to reclaim political influence in the crucial Mt Kenya region.
United in their opposition to President Ruto’s UDA, this faction is already gearing up to stage an intense campaign to weaken the yellow party’s grip in the area.
This newfound partnership may lead to a significant shift in Mt Kenya's political dynamics as both camps work to sway voters ahead of future elections, challenging Dr Ruto’s influence in the region.
Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni holds that with the people of Mt Kenya having been upset with president Ruto’s UDA, Jubilee being the second largest party in the region which deep grassroots presence provides an alternative vehicle for Mt Kenya.
“One fact which we have established when we started the voter registration drive as Jubilee is that people actually never left the party. They voted for UDA but never resigned from Jubilee.
“So many of the people whom you think are in UDA are actually in Jubilee. So Mt Kenta is still predominantly Jubilee and we only need to ensure we excite the ground again as a party and Jubilee will be a national political party. It will certainly be the party of choice,” Mr Kioni told Nation.
Mr Kioni has vouched for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka to run against President Ruto in the upcoming 2027 elections, promising him Mt Kenya's support, and recently there have been talks between his camp and Mr Gachagua's to bolster their team.
Mr Gachagua has in the recent days been seeking to mend fences with former President Kenyatta in what he describes as a push to unify the Mt Kenya region.
“We said all people; those who were in UDA, Jubilee, Azimio, if we are talking like me, let's forgive one another and unite. Even Uhuru Kenyatta is our child, let him come we walk together, is that okay," Mr Gachagua said in the past.
Already Mr Gachagua’s allies are seeking to acquire a new political party, with hopes that they will join forces with the Kenyatta-Kalonzo camps to wipe out UDA from Mt Kenya before setting out for national campaigns.
But Dr Ruto is also said not to be sitting pretty and is committed to wedge an all-out-war to try to galvanize support in the region that voted for him almost to a man in the 2022 election.
On Monday, the National Executive Committee (NEC) of Dr Ruto's UDA party approved Prof Kindiki as the party's new deputy leader, replacing Mr Gachagua and positioning him for a battle to ensure the party regains its lost glory, especially in the mountains.
But analysts say Prof Kindiki faces a daunting task to bring the "wounded region back into Ruto's fold".
While assuming his party’s role as deputy leader on Monday, Prof Kindiki assured of necessary support to steer the party to success.
“In that role, I expect to assist our party leader as he steers our party and he steers our country as the leader at the moment so that some of the functions that he delegates to me, requests me to assist him or asked to assist him by the party, I will be more than willing and available to assist him,” Prof Kindiki said.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua believes that all is not lost for president Ruto in the Mt Kenya region.
“President Ruto would have secured Mt Kenya vote with any other politician from Mt Kenya. Rigathi Gachagua started building his political capital after he was named running mate,” Mr Mokua says.
He adds that Prof Kindiki does not need to unite Mt Kenya behind President Ruto ahead of 2027 since he has the capacity of dong it by himself as the deputy leader does little in supporting him.
Mr Mokua argues that Prof Kindiki needs to proactively manage what he terms as “disinformation campaign” that is branding him and legislators from Mt Kenya who voted to impeach Mr Gachagua as traitors.
“Rigathi Gachagua is credited for agile grassroots mobilization skills. This is a key factor in elections. Prof Kindiki has two years to put up a results oriented grassroots mobilization infrastructure,” he says.
Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University of Kenya however, holds that the chances of Kenya Kwanza government gaining trust in Mt Kenya will be determined by how it will turn around the backlash from Kenyans in health sector, education, and solving the increasing number of strikes from several unions.
“If they do not fix these, then people will not look at him (Kindiki) as their son but as part of the system that has failed. Unless if he starts to advise the government now,” Prof Naituli says.
Unlike Mr Gachagua, he argues, “Prof Kindiki has natural intelligence that is enabling him to create good rapport with other leaders and Kenyans, hence, standing a chance of gaining support beyond Mt Kenya.”
In the 2022 election, president Ruto was overwhelmingly voted by the mountain region, both Mt Kenya East, West and its diaspora of Nakuru and Laikipia counties, to clinch the top seat.
Mt Kenya East where Prof Kindiki hails has Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties, where president Ruto secured 398,946, 187,981 and 145,081 votes respectively totaling to 732,008 votes against Azimio candidate Raila Odinga’s 103,679, 31,209 and 15,062 votes respectively, a total of 149,950 votes.
In Mt Kenya West, the home turf of Mr Gachagua which has Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu counties, president Ruto got a total of 1,632,788 votes, doubling what he secured from the East, against Mr Odinga’s 423,295 votes.
President Ruto secured 189,519, 272,507, 220,984, 343,349 and 606,429 votes in Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu respectively, while Mr Odinga had 49,228, 52,052, 37,909, 73,526 and 210,580 votes in that order.
In Nakuru and Laikipia counties, Dr Ruto managed 455,864 and 119,142 votes respectively, against Mr Odinga’s 226,052 and 48,908 votes.
