President Uhuru Kenyatta’s speedy assent to the Political Parties (Amendment) Bill has heralded a new political order that will see presidential contenders compete to form coalitions with rival camps, and potentially thrown the August 9 General Election race wide open.
The new law opens a battlefront that will see each of the current three major political formations; Azimio La Umoja, One Kenya Alliance (OKA) and Kenya Kwanza jostling to form the most formidable coalition party to deliver an electoral win.
While the initial intention of drafting the amendments was to bring together up to 15 parties backing the Raila Odinga-led Azimio la Umoja formation, the law has handed a lifeline to the former prime minister’s political opponents who are now planning to also reap big from its provisions by inviting coalition partners.
“You’re forming a coalition party; we are also forming a coalition party. What is good for the goose is also good for the gander,” Senator Johnson Sakaja, who now backs the Deputy President William Ruto-led Kenya Kwanza Alliance, said in his contribution to the debate on the floor of the Senate.
The Bill, which President Kenyatta signed into law yesterday after it sailed through the Senate, introduces coalition political parties that can conduct joint nominations for various electoral seats and support a single presidential candidate, while at the same time retaining their different identities, with no need to dissolve into one outfit.
President Kenyatta’s Jubilee was in September 2016 formed by the dissolution of 12 parties that merged into one, while Mr Odinga’s National Super Alliance; comprising five different parties, failed spectacularly in its bid for joint nominations, losing key parliamentary and county seats in the process.
As Mr Odinga now swings into action to formalise his partnership with the supporting political parties led by President Kenyatta’s Jubilee next week, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance and the OKA formation will also get an opportunity to regroup and go into the 2022 State House race as a bigger teams.
Sponsors of Kenya’s political parties have long harboured fears of folding up their outfits to form coalitions, as dissolution makes them lose their identities.
Elimination of this fear opens a fresh window for negotiations and coalitions building for the August race.
The Nation has learnt that the ‘Kenya Kwanza’ coalition name was reserved with the Registrar of Political Parties in October last year by allies of Mr Mudavadi, giving the new formation a ready name that will only go through the legal motions of formalisation.
OKA, which now has Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper, Gideon Moi’s Kanu, and Cyrus Jirongo’s United Democratic Party, has already reached out to Martha Karua’s Narc-Kenya, Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party (DP), and billionaire businessman Jimi Wanjigi, following the exits of Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula.
Mr Musyoka yesterday said OKA was “re-energised”, planning a bigger coalition, and was ready to go all the way to the ballot.
“OKA is stronger than ever before. We have lost two (principals), but gained four. We will remain as OKA to the tape. There are no two horses in this presidential election. We want to tell them: The Buffalo Soldier is here. And we are coming for you!” Mr Musyoka told a rally in his Kitui backyard, making reference to the story of African soldiers in Native America said to have fought so valiantly and fiercely, they were feared like the animal.
OKA has announced a rally in Ms Karua’s Kirinyaga County on Sunday, after a series of rallies in Mr Musyoka’s Ukambani backyard, in what they say is confirmation of their continued presence in the race.
For Mr Musyoka and the OKA team, a presidential bid with such a team expands their horizon and complicates chances for DP Ruto and Mr Odinga, in what analysts say might force a run-off in that no candidate will surpass the 50 per cent plus one vote threshold set by the Constitution for a first-round win.
The entry of Mr Wanjigi, thought to have been a key financier of Mr Odinga’s 2017 campaigns, as well as Ms Karua and Mr Muturi, also opens up to OKA the vote-rich Mt Kenya region.
The mountain region is integral in DP Ruto’s State House plan and in Mr Odinga’s eyes to boost his chances of a win following the camaraderie with President Kenyatta.
Similarly, the new law also opens doors for DP Ruto to enter into fresh agreements with Mt Kenya-based parties, including Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria’s Chama Cha Kazi (CCK) and former Agriculture minister Mwangi Kiunjuri’s The Service Party (TSP), both of which were allied to the DP, but had drifted off after the deputy president demanded they fold their parties to join his United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Already, Mr Kuria has given the strongest hint yet that he might be willing to come back to the DP’s table, after the passing of the political parties law.
“Azimio is a bad idea, fronted by the wrong people, for all the wrong reasons. Its fate is Jehanum and Judgement Day is here,” Mr Kuria said on Wednesday.
And with the Bill now signed into law, Mr Odinga, who pushed for its passing, as well as OKA and DP Ruto, are now free to engage the fringe, regional parties, with no requirement for their dissolution and with an opportunity to craft a nominations agreement that boosts their chances at the presidency.
“Politics is strange. President Kenyatta and Raila spent huge political capital and state resources to pass the Political Parties Bill so that Hon Mudavadi, Musyoka and Wetang’ula are accommodated in Raila's ODM and DP Ruto is isolated. The Bill is passed. Ruto will use it to accommodate all,” Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi, who often comments on politics, said on Twitter.
In the end, it seems, no one party might dare go it alone in the 2022 campaign, and with the new law paving way for the sweetening of deals with regional parties, presidential candidates are back to the drawing board in a race that President Kenyatta has thrown back to the ring.
“Kalonzo and I have said we will stick with OKA. We have agreed: Where one goes, all go. I want to ask you to give him the space to negotiate for you. He has your interests at heart,” Senator Moi told OKA’s Kitui rally yesterday.
