Donald Trump gestures during a campaign event at Dorton Arena, in Raleigh, North Carolina, US on November 4, 2024.
As world leaders sent congratulatory messages to Donald Trump on winning the election on Wednesday, Kenya’s President William Ruto took his time. Ruto would later congratulate Trump, but that wait-and-see may have been significant.
Republican Trump defeated Democrat Vice-President Kamala Harris to win back the seat he lost to Joe Biden in 2020. The counting of college votes is still ongoing.
His presidency in the first term showed he would be unpredictable, with the running thread in all that being “America First”.
All eyes will be on Trump once he takes the oath of office in January.
He may upend policies targeting African countries like Kenya, or maintain a trajectory albeit with a shift in priorities.
In Nairobi, the US backing of the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS) in Haiti, which Kenya leads, guarantees on climate change, support for counter-terrorism and security missions in Somalia and completion of a trade agreement whose talks had begun are among the matters whose fate lies in Trump’s hands.
Republicans had stalled approvals for US funding for Haiti. Biden pledged $300 million but had only delivered $100 million for the MSS, with the rest pending in Congress.
The Trump victory also comes with the House majority wins Republicans will control for the next three years.
They will be key in approving or rejecting money heading outside the US. Trump has been critical of Biden’s funding of projects abroad, accusing him of ignoring domestic issues.
Stalling funding for MSS could cripple its intentions, and may force Kenya to delay more deployments due by January.
Biden had cancelled Trump’s trade agreement with Kenya, instead launching talks, which are still on.
They are unlikely to be completed before Biden leaves office. Kenya is unlikely to sign any trade deal with the US in the next one year, analysts say.
Trade agreement
For Kenya, that means a longer wait for a trade agreement which looked likely in the first Trump years (2016-2020).
According to experts, the coming into effect of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2021 and the likely renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) present a dilemma to the US-Kenya trade agreement.
“Trump and Harris are nationalists. They are looking at protecting and nurturing ‘made in America’, and that means attention to enhancing the American market access opportunities, which was a major achievement of President George W. Bush. It is increasingly going to the backseat,” said Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, former Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development and ex-Trade Cabinet Minister.
“Africa is going to have diminished significance in economic and other international engagements of the next US government.”
Biden’s shift from a free trade area agreement (FTA) to a strategic trade and investment partnership (STIP) deal was a different from Trump’s, suggesting the new leader would not continue with it.
“The broader picture is that Presidents Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto were cheated into a line of thinking that Kenya could do a bilateral market access preference by the US outside Agoa,” Dr Kituyi said.
“We raised the red flag as there was no way Kenya could negotiate on a one-on-one basis with the US a better deal as part of a package of more than 40 countries.”
Former Trade Principal Secretary Johnson Weru agreed with Dr Kituyi, saying as the United States decides on who takes over from Biden, STIP may be dead and buried.
World Trade Organisation
According to Mr Weru, the legality of the STIP under the World Trade Organisation rules, the AfCFTA and Agoa on preferential trade agreements is still uncertain.
“Kenya is likely to be caught up by international laws because the US is supposed to give developing countries trading preferences according to article 24 of the WTO,” Mr Weru added.
“It grants preferences to developing countries first before being granted to third parties.”
The fundamental principle of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is that there should be no discrimination between contracting parties – currently 164 countries.
Known as the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principle, it means any preference given one country by another must be available to the other 163, except when it is an FTA which covers “substantially all the trade” between them.
“The US and Kenya are working to conclude an agreement by the end of the year on a high standard ambitious STIP that reflects mutually shared goals and values, to further deepen our trade relationship and elevate Kenya as a business and investment destination on the continent,” said Catherine White, Deputy Press Secretary, Office of the US Trade Representative in response to the Daily Nation on the future of the STIP.
These sentiments were reiterated by Investments, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Salim Mvurya.
“The US and Kenya will conclude negotiations of their Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership.”
In the wide-range of uncertainty, Cameron Hudson, a Senior Fellow for the Africa Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think-tank, argued before the results were out that the winner was expected to follow a similar formula involving signature development programmes, supporting democracy and human rights, and the ever-expanding security partnerships in Africa overall.
Trump’s profile of speaking honestly, even when arrogant, however, could give Africa some certainty to tamper with its expectations
“Trump’s decidedly derogatory tone during his first term still causes Africans to bristle, but some now view this in retrospect as a harsh yet honest assessment of where they stand in the hierarchy of Washington’s priorities,” Hudson said.
Financial partnerships
“As difficult as this truth is, having it openly stated sets clear expectations for what African leaders can anticipate from Washington and puts the onus on them to deliver for their people, something that they are already doing as they seek new security and financial partnerships.”
In Trump’s first term, he withdrew from the climate pact known as the Paris Agreement and planned a pull-out from UN agencies like the World Health Organisation, UN High Commissioner for Refugees and even Unesco.
Trump himself has argued that the US would not send money to multinational organisations unless other countries pay their fair share of the obligations.
That could be awkward for countries like Kenya which have pursued multilateralism as a solution to shared problems.
Kenya has campaigned for climate change equitable funding, for example, and joined the international lobby seeking UN reforms.
Trump had promised to slash funding to organisations that undercut American interests.
Alice Hill, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group in the US told the Daily Nation: “Trump’s victory presents a real obstacle in the global fight against climate change. Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States will almost certainly step back from international and domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increasing fossil fuel production.”
“However, this outcome does not spell the be-all and end-all for climate action in the US. The power of state-level action should not be undermined, with significant progress made at sub-national level in some states.”
She added that local political and regulatory intervention would be critical in the fight for a healthier planet, with or without support from the Trump administration.
