What does 2021 hold for Kenya’s fluid political landscape?

An assertion by Jubilee Party vice-chairman David Murathe that President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga could be on the same side in the next General Election, two archrivals who split the country down the middle in 2017, best illustrates the fluid nature of Kenyan politics. 

The rapprochement between the two which began in March, 2018 has redefined politics, relegating Deputy President William Ruto to the periphery in an administration he was central in forming. 

The handshake, and the Building Bridges Initiative, have also made President Kenyatta more assertive at a stage in his final term when he should ordinarily have started to become a “lame duck” as successors queue ahead of 2022.

In the process, it has turned DP Ruto’s lieutenants into ‘opposition within government’.

Today, it is commonplace to find Siaya Senator James Orengo, who never had any kind words for the Jubilee administration, pushing or defending the government’s agenda as his Elgeyo-Marakwet counterpart Kipchumba Murkomen — a Ruto camp insider — mounts sharp opposition.

Like in the words of former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, a week is a long time in politics, two years to the next polls is even longer with 2021 likely to be a defining year for realignments.

Kanu secretary-general Nick Salat, whose party has formalised its post-election deal with Jubilee, concurs that self-preservation is the major motivation for most political players, with little or no regard for principles or ideology.

Social democrat

“We see this at the end of every political cycle when people create vehicles for the sake of capturing state power. As Kanu, we have always stuck to our philosophy and hope the BBI report addresses such shortcomings in the national arena,” he said.

Critics say that Mr Odinga, who some describe as a social democrat, has lost his ideological compass by teaming up with Mr Kenyatta’s wing of Jubilee.

His ODM party secretary-general Edwin Sifuna disagrees.

He says Mr Odinga and the Orange party have never veered off their political ideology.

“The ideology of ODM has never changed. There are things we believe in like free press and justice for all. An ODM government cannot, for instance, disregard court orders.

“We are sometimes brought together with other parties by circumstances like in the case of Nasa coalition and that’s why we have manifestos to ensure we stick to what we stand for. Politics is about persuasion and you need the support of others to achieve your goal. Doing so does not imply forsaking your principles and ideals,” Mr Sifuna said.

Mr Odinga admits ‘the peace pact’ with the President has redrawn the country’s political script.

“Generally, we are where few expected us to be. The general expectation was that it would be chaos, standoff and rage all the way to 2022 and that was going to give way to divisive and possibly chaotic elections. There are even those who believe that if I had dug in (after the nullified 2017 elections and repeat polls), Uhuru’s government would have collapsed,” he said.

Shifting interests

Last year, Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago, a Ruto ally, succinctly captured the nature of Kenyan politics.

“The 2017 politics taught me a lot of things. Do not be too personal about it. Put it in the lungs, not the heart — so that in case of any shifts, you breathe it away and continue with your life. We successfully campaigned for Uhuru against a strong tide coming from Raila’s side. Then without any warning, came the handshake (in March 2018) thrusting Raila into Uhuru’s inner sanctum. Today, I would perhaps need Raila’s help to reach the president.”

Mr Mandago’s remarks capture how shifting interests, without a solid ideological backing, shape the political landscape.

The opposition, or what remains of it, has also had unexpected shifts since the 2017 elections. The triumvirate of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford-Kenya boss Moses Wetang’ula backed Mr Odinga for president in the last polls, but today they have all gone their separate ways, with lacklustre attempts to form alliances without Mr Odinga in the equation.

Even though they have warmed up to President Kenyatta’s wing of Jubilee, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula were earlier this year reportedly separately holding talks with the Ruto camp to explore the possibility of working together. Even though he appears to be an early front-runner to bag a majority of the Mt Kenya bloc vote, Dr Ruto is also hedging his bet on Western Kenya. In this equation, the choice of running-mate could be the perfect path to the regions’ bloc vote. The Nasa co-principals have since 2018 accused Mr Odinga of keeping them in the dark on his mock swearing-in as the People’s President and the handshake with Mr Kenyatta.

Death of Nasa

Both Mr Odinga and his running mate in the last two elections, Mr Musyoka, have previously declared the death of Nasa even though the deal they signed is valid until 2022. “We have resolved that the WDM-K moves ahead with speed to enter into a coalition agreement with the ruling Party, Jubilee, in line with the emerging political realignments in the country. That the WDM-K takes this step following the realisation that Nasa Coalition has become totally dysfunctional,” Mr Musyoka announced earlier in the year.

Mr Eseli Simiyu, who is the secretary-general of a Ford-Kenya trying to wrestle the party from Mr Wetang’ula, decries a dearth of principled leaders as the cause of the ever-changing political formations. “You can’t tell a capitalist, a social democrat or liberal democrat apart. I’m not even sure if they exists here. The flock ends up wondering because the leaders have no known leanings,” Dr Simiyu said.

The rocky political union between Mr Kenyatta and Dr Ruto, an alliance primarily brought into existence ahead of the 2013 elections by the International Criminal Court cases the duo faced at The Hague following the 2007/2008 post-election violence, echoes what some scholars have pointed out.

When regimes or alliances have no external threats, they find it hard justifying their existence to the people. Eventually, they fall from their own weight.

Blamed ‘deep state’

So bad has the feuding within Jubilee been that a frustrated Dr Ruto has this year repeatedly blamed the “deep state”, “system” or “cabal” for attempting to block him from succeeding President Kenyatta.

Like Mr Odinga in the disputed 2007 presidential elections, supporters of the DP believe he has the pulse of the nation at the moment and should use the opportunity to craft a winning team.

And in a case of guilt by association, allies of the DP have for some time now been on the receiving end by being removed from influential positions or, they claim, having corruption investigations and court cases opened against them .

While some erstwhile allies like Laikipia Woman Representative Cate Waruguru have changed tune supposedly due to the pressure, many have stayed put. Then there are the unlikely defectors to the Ruto camp like former Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama and former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar, among others. The three were key Nasa politicians in the 2017 elections.

President Kenyatta, despite his critics pointing out he had not done enough for his Mt Kenya base since 2013, remains influential and is likely to control the political direction the regions takes.

“Uhuru will remain the community kingpin even after he finishes his second term in office. That is not in dispute. He will still have a say on the direction the community takes,” former Gatanga MP and presidential hopeful Peter Kenneth says. Taking on him head-on would thus be a gamble fraught with many political risks for anyone scheming to wrest the control from him locally without his blessings.

In the Rift valley, the shadow of the late president Daniel Moi will no longer be at play in 2022, and so the DP is expected to have a firm command of the local politics despite a challenge from Baringo Senator and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi.

Political landscape

It explains why the likes of former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto are careful not to take on him head on.

The most probable way of predicting the country’s next political landscape is by looking at who will oppose — even in the background — or support a referendum to change the Constitution as being proposed by the BBI.

Tellingly, there will be two main forces emerging after the plebiscite with each side to build on the momentum to win the elections.

The DP has given conditions on supporting the BBI Bill — neither openly endorsing or opposing it. His critics, however, say he is secretly pushing for its rejection. Were Dr Ruto to openly lead the “No” side, it could be a case of history repeating itself as the DP teamed up with the religious bodies to oppose the 2010 Constitution.

If Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga go to the referendum on the same side, and the camp holds to the next General Election, it will front a handshake candidate.

But there is still hope among the DP’s supporters that the president will back his bid in keeping with his 2017 promise.

Another open channel is that of Mr Odinga and Dr Ruto regrouping again in 2022. Some of the DP’s handlers have even suggested he may pull a surprise by not running for president.

The truth is that the country enters 2021 amid the pandemic, 2022 formations are up in the air.

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