What Tifa poll outcome means to DP Kindiki ahead of 2027 elections

Former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho, who was recently fronted by the Coast region for the position, got just one per cent of those interviewed.

Beyond the number, the outcome is a major boost for Prof Kindiki as he fights to retain the number two slot amid a push by ODM to get the position under the broad-based arrangement with President Ruto ahead of the 2027 elections.

In February this year, Dr Oginga said ODM is targeting the Deputy President’s slot.

“The Deputy President’s seat is the one we are targeting the most. If we have to go for a lower position, it must not be lower than number two in any formation. That is my take, we should not take less than that,” Dr Oginga said.

He, however, later recanted the statement, saying they have no personal animosity towards the Deputy President as a person.

Mt Kenya MPs have, however, told their colleagues that the Deputy President’s slot is not up for any negotiation ahead of the 2027 polls.

Going by the Thursday results, the outcome is likely to wade off other leaders, even from Mt Kenya, who have also been angling for the position.

Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru and Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah are among the pro government politicians who are said to have been silently eyeing the post.

Laikipia Woman Representative Jane Kagiri said that the good ratings Prof Kindiki received are a confirmation that Kenyans want a unifying deputy president who appreciates the diversity of Kenyans.

“An interaction with the Deputy President reminds one of a humble and progressive leader, and that is what Kenyans want. Kenyans abhor any leader who is arrogant, overbearing, polarising and toxic. Kindiki’s expansive coverage of most of Kenya is bearing fruit, and the majority of Kenyans feel represented by him,” Ms Kagiri said.

The outcome of the poll also now puts Prof Kindiki at the core of President Ruto’s inner circle as he creates his Mt Kenya re-election machinery that will help him in hunting for votes in the region, which many believe has slipped from him following the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua.

Political pundits say beyond the numbers, the ratings show that for Prof. Kindiki, it is about acceptability, stability, coalition management, regional arithmetic, elite trust, and survival politics inside Kenya Kwanza.

While others say that for Prof Kindiki, it may not necessarily be charisma or populism. It is predictability, and that is what President Ruto needs at this time.

Since assuming office following the dramatic impeachment of Mr Gachagua, Kindiki has carefully cultivated the image of a disciplined technocrat, loyal insider, non-combative operative, and institutional stabiliser.

Unlike many ambitious politicians around Ruto, he has avoided public confrontation, succession theatrics, factional wars, and ethnic brinkmanship.

That appears to be resonating strongly with the President’s support base at a time when the ruling coalition is battling multiple political fires simultaneously.

The impeachment of Mr Gachagua created a vacuum in Mt. Kenya politics that remains unresolved. While Gachagua still commands sections of the region politically, his legal uncertainty and confrontational posture have complicated his viability as a long-term national coalition anchor.

The TIFA survey itself shows Gachagua’s national presidential preference rating standing at just nine percent, behind Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i and Edwin Sifuna.

More critically, DCP’s rise in Mt. Kenya, where it now commands 39 per cent support, suggests that while Gachagua retains influence in the region, his movement may be evolving into a regional protest vehicle rather than a nationally expandable coalition.

The polls show that Mt. Kenya remains politically fluid, with the DCP gaining substantial traction in the region.

Beyond internal coalition stability, Kindiki’s political value to President Ruto lies in electoral arithmetic, particularly within the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region.

While the broader Mt. Kenya bloc has shown signs of political fragmentation following Rigathi Gachagua’s fallout with Kenya Kwanza, strategists within Ruto’s camp are understood to view Kindiki as one of the few figures capable of softening anti-Ruto sentiment in parts of the region while preserving significant support for the President ahead of 2027.

This may be especially critical in Mt. Kenya East — comprising Meru, Embu and Tharaka-Nithi — where Kindiki enjoys longstanding political, academic and regional networks, and where he is widely perceived as less confrontational and more institutionally grounded compared to other emerging regional actors.

In that equation, Kindiki is viewed not merely as a deputy president, but as a political stabiliser capable of limiting electoral erosion in strategically important parts of the mountain.

Prof Kindiki is, however, facing the daunting task of consolidating the Mt. Kenya East bloc to make it impossible for Gachagua and the opposition to garner significant support from the region, giving President Ruto the much needed shot in the arm politically.

According to political analyst Prof. Lumala Masibo, President Ruto has a tough balancing act to retain Prof Kindiki or give the seat to Luo Nyanza, which traditionally has a poor voter turnout.

“If he leaves Prof Kindiki, then Mount Kenya East will join the opposition camp. If he gives it to Luo Nyanza, he has a further headache to marshal them to vote now that Raila Odinga is not there. It is a tricky situation,” said Prof Masibo.

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