Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has now entered a credibility test moment in his promise that he will issue a political directive to the Mountain region voters in January 2025.
A member of his inner circle, who spoke in confidence, told Nation.Africa that Mr Gachagua is expected to give a major interview on February 2 but it was not clear if he would make the eagerly awaited announcement after a church service in Murang’a County.
The former Deputy President could be the victim of his own political promise in Mt Kenya depending on how soon he makes the big announcement and how strong the formation he puts together is.
After he was impeached by President William Ruto's allies in October 2024, the former Deputy President has retreated to the Mountain and has been working to consolidate the region against the ruling UDA.
He has been coordinating activities from his Wamunyoro village home in Mathira constituency, Nyeri County.
Currently, his agenda to control the populous Mt Kenya voting bloc appears to be gaining ground, eroding the Ruto administration’s support.
Prof Kithure Kindiki , who replaced Mr Gachagua, visited the region for the first time since being named deputy president on January 31 in Nyeri and was on February 1 in Embu for various meetings.
In his stated agenda to make President Ruto a one-term President, Mr Gachagua has said "the movement I am crafting from the Mountain will make 2002 look like a joke".
It is in 2002 when regional leaders came together under Mr Mwai Kibaki and kicked out the ruling party Kanu out of its four decades in power.
It is a plan the president dismissed during a recent tour of Western Kenya when he declared he will beat his 2027 competitors "by early morning on voting day".
Key among what Mr Gachagua’s supporters are waiting for is the party that he intends to herd them into.
"The party is ready and only waiting for unveiling. The moment Gachagua makes it public, we will move our loyalty into it," Roysambu MP Kamande Mwafrika said.
The other issue that Mr Gachagua is expected to reveal are his possible allies as he builds a coalition he expects to debunk the image of an ethnic leader his critics have often hoisted.
"We have since made it clear that we are partnering with many friends among them Kalonzo Musyoka , George Natembeya, Okiya Omtatah, Dr Fred Matiang'i, Eugene Wamalwa— no one should feel apprehensive of the accusations by the likes of President Ruto and his appointed Deputy, Kindiki," said Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu.
It is in that breath that all will be waiting to get a clear picture of who Mr Gachagua will be preferring to be his project's Presidential candidate to unseat President Ruto.
"For now we are consulting. Our work will be simple: Be selfless, agree among ourselves and front one person,” he said recently as he attended the relaunch of Mr Wamalwa’s DAP-Kenya party, claiming he had the potential to deliver eight million votes as the other leaders also rally their regions.
With Mr Gachagua fighting his impeachment in court, anxiety remains that he might be banned from holding public office, knocking him out of the 2027 contest. His Plan B is, therefore, a matter of as much interest as the Plan A.
Attention will also be on any power sharing pacts ahead of 2027 with Mr Gachagua expected to give assurances on how it will play out after he claimed he was naïve to support Dr Ruto in 2022 without a formal agreement.
Mr Gachagua is also under pressure to issue a workable roadmap on how he intends to maintain the opposition politics momentum he has introduced in Mt Kenya more than two years before elections.
"We cannot take directions from a man who after sloganeering will leave us without development. It is development that we were voted for. I can as well issue a direction for my Kirinyaga people if we risk being led into an empty rebellion," said Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru.
It is in Ms Waiguru's notice that lies Mr Gachagua's dilemma in his intended directive. Pressure has been mounting on him to allow the president and his loyalists to work in the mountain region.
Even though President Ruto’s allies have been facing hostility in grassroots events in Mt Kenya, others in the Gachagua camp are also feeling the pressure.
"I have re-joined the government because of pressure to deliver on what I promised my Kangema people. It is hard to deliver while fighting the government," said Kangema MP Peter Kihungi.
It is out of the fear of losing more loyalists that Mr Gachagua is also under pressure to come with a plan that will transform him into a projects' crusader, demand them by name and by budget because he was part of the contest ticket that promised them.
With the process of putting in place the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in place now, Mr Gachagua is expected to rally his people to prepare for mass voter registration especially among his community's young population.
Murang'a Youth Forum for Gachagua 2027 lobby group chair, Mixson Warui, says the former Deputy President should also clarify on the space former president Uhuru Kenyatta and Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua occupy in the Mountain agenda.
As Gachagua loyalists continue to demand that Mr Kenyatta embrace unity of the region, the issue of how he (Gachagua) is treating those who impeached him has come to the fore.
"How will he manage looking us into the eye telling us to remain united for our collective cause yet remain hostile to those who impeached him? Are we going to be selective and apply double standards in forgiveness and reconciliation?" says National Democratic Congress Youth leader Ms Gladys Njoroge.
The biggest fear among Mt Kenya potential aspirants is how Mr Gachagua's declared party will handle nominations if all top contestants are put in one basket.
"It is most likely that the party that he will unveil will have the upper hand in Mt Kenya region. As it is, he has to assure us that he will not go for direct nominations. We cannot risk having a fraudulent picking of aspirants," said James Ngugi, a Kiharu constituency legislative hopeful.
Kikuyu Council of elders Chairman Wachira Kiago said he waits to hear how Gachagua will direct the community to deal with government excesses.
Mr Kiago added that Mr Gachagua must clearly issue strong comments about the ongoing abductions, extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances crisis in the country.
"We also want to hear about one man one shilling one vote formula and how to approach the oncoming Finance Bill 2025," he said.
Laikipia Senator John Kinyua said he expects Mr Gachagua to issue a directive on how Mt Kenya should treat the threat fronted by former Mungiki leader Mr Maina Njenga.
"We have already seen a worrying trend where the former gang is regrouping perceived through government patronage and the residents fighting it off," Mr Kinyua said.
