Leaders of the nascent opposition coalition keen to deny President William Ruto a second term in office are working on strategies to manage their ambitions and competing interests to avoid the mistakes that befell the original Ford movement in 1992.
There are already fears in the opposition camp that the State could engineer a split by sponsoring multiple candidates to boost President Ruto's chances of re-election.
Both former Presidents Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki used such tactics in 1992, 1997 and 2007 to split the opposition, which initially presented a united front only to split in the run-up to the presidential race.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K)’s Eugene Wamalwa and Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua are some of the leading lights in the current opposition plan.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i is also in the shadows as a potential presidential candidate.
Some of the top politicians have in the recent past said they need to be on the ballot in 2027, raising fears that some of the leaders may go their separate ways in 2027 due to competing interests.
"These leaders must know that Kenyans will be voting to save their country and not necessarily to make someone president," warned Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua.
"The road to the maturing of our democracy is littered with cases of selfish interests, treachery and raw greed for political power in the ranks of the opposition. As a result, incumbent presidents have returned to power with relative ease," he explained.
In 1992, efforts to form a united opposition coalition in the multiparty era failed dramatically, handing another term to then-President Moi.
The giant Ford, which had led the country in the struggle to free Kenya from Kanu's one-party rule, could not field a single candidate to take on Moi.
Competing interests in the movement led to the emergence of splinter parties, with Kenneth Matiba forming Ford-Asili and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the father of ODM leader Raila Odinga leading Ford-Kenya. Kibaki, another key opposition politician, ran for the presidency on the ticket of his then Democratic Party.
In the end, Mr Moi triumphed. In the presidential election, Mr Moi polled 1,927,645 votes to Mr Matiba's 1,354,856.
Mr Kibaki polled 1,035,507 while Mr Oginga got 903,886. The figures show that the opposition would have easily defeated Moi had they fielded a common candidate.
It was the same script in 1997, even after the 'Hilton Accord', which indicated that all opposition candidates would renounce their claim to the presidency and consider a joint ticket.
Moi polled 2,500,865 votes, followed by Mr Kibaki (1,911,742), Mr Raila Odinga (667,886), Kijana Wamalwa (505,704) and Ms Charity Ngilu (488,600), among others.
In 2007, a united Orange Movement that defeated Mr Kibaki in the 2005 referendum split in the run-up to the presidential race, giving the incumbent a second term in a vote that plunged the country into deadly post-election violence.
Mr Musyoka led a group of ODM Kenya supporters, mainly from Eastern Province, while Mr Odinga's camp included fellow ODM presidential aspirants William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Najib Balala and Joseph Nyagah.
Kibaki of the PNU won re-election with 4,584,721 votes to Mr Odinga's 4,352,993 and Mr Musyoka's 879,903.
“Kenyans will be very unkind to any leader in the opposition who would come across as a spoiler for the much awaited salvation from the Ruto regime. I have personally interacted with all the top opposition leaders and I can tell you that every one of them surely understands that this election is more about saving Kenyans than ever before,” said Senator Wambua.
Speaking in Karen during the official launch of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), Mr Gachagua and Mr Musyoka seemed concerned about this possibility.
“We shall be selfless as a team, and let us not approach this election with a predetermined mindset that so and so will become this. We have one agenda, to remove this man. That is the first objective,” Mr Gachagua said.
Having been removed from office by impeachment, Mr Gachagua is barred from standing for public office unless he successfully challenges his removal in a court of law.
Mr Musyoka said they would form a team of experts to help them think differently about key issues ahead of the 2027 elections.
“We must do these things differently. We are dealing with very crafty characters. We need to be very deliberate. We are not going to announce everything to these people. We have to be strategic,” Mr Musyoka said.
“We cannot afford, in my view, to allow these people to manipulate, to steal, to mess up with 2027. That is why you hear some of them saying that they know how to manufacture the presidency,” Mr Musyoka said.
Mr Musyoka has in the past repeatedly vowed not to support any other presidential candidate, saying that would mean retiring from politics because of his age.
“I was ready to be president in 2002 when we said Kibaki Tosha and we allowed Kibaki. The arrangement was that after Kibaki I would run. I was ready in 2013 to move from being Vice president to president of the republic.
“Giving up my presidential ambitions would actually mean going home. It is as simple as that. That means it is not an option," Mr Musyoka, who turned 71 in December last year, told the Nation in an earlier interview.
“At this level I cannot become anyone’s running mate again. If there is any prayer you are making is for me to get the president’s seat that I will vie for in the next election. That one (running mate) I got done with in 2022,” said Ms Karua recently.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a close ally of Mr Musyoka, said opposition parties need to independently build their support base and structures before engaging on who should fly the opposition ticket.
He said a coalition of strong partner parties would be a good starting point for the opposition to send Dr Ruto home.
"Politics is a game of numbers; we must first have a strong grassroots support base before rallying behind a common candidate because if we run separately, we will be hanged separately," Mr Mwangangi said.
Fears of opposition splits ahead of the 2027 presidential election are also fuelled by personal differences among some of the political players.
Mr Kenyatta's Jubilee Party did not send a representative to the Karen event, as the secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni was conspicuously absent.
Reports of bad blood between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Gachagua are cited as the reason for Mr Kioni's absence from the event.
Also missing from the event was Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, who is a DAP-K member.
Prof Macharia Munene, a university lecturer and political analyst, says the leaders have so far demonstrated their willingness to sacrifice personal interests and ambitions to achieve their sole objective of unseating President Ruto.
"The spirit is there. They seem willing to sacrifice individual interests. At the moment, many are saying they are running; this is just for political posturing and to shore up their popularity ratings," said Prof Macharia, who thinks Mr Musyoka has the best chance.
But analyst Javas Bigambo disagrees, saying the opposition camp does not have a solid agenda to rally the country around.
"They have shown their formation too early; it would be easy for the state-sponsored candidates to engineer a split. Even in 2002, when the opposition presented a united front, Simeon Nyachae walked out because of betrayal," said Mr Bigambo.
US-based university lecturer and political analyst – Prof David Monda – says the only interest keeping the opposition together currently is their desire to remove Dr Ruto from power.
“As in 2002, if the public mood is anti-incumbent and Gachagua/Raila come out united against Ruto, these is a high likelihood of success. However, Ruto has the advantage of incumbency and the unlimited largesse of state resources to coerce, co-opt or eliminate opponents. It will not be a walk in the park to unseat him. But it's very possible especially if he's only left with his Rift Valley backyard,” Prof Monda explains.
