Why by-elections could leave big parties scarred

With the upcoming mini-polls setting the tempo for the next General Election, the country’s leading political parties are feeling the heat.

Even United Democratic Alliance (UDA), the new kid on the block associated with Deputy President William Ruto is not spared.

Voters are expected to elect a governor in Nairobi, a senator in Machakos County, members of parliament in Matungu and Kabuchai as well as ward representatives across the country.

Jostling is in high gear as parties embark on an overdrive to sidestep fallouts that come after nominations or the direct award of tickets.

Dr Ruto, for instance met 13 Machakos hopefuls – most of them independent – on Wednesday.

He was in the company of UDA chairman Johnson Muthama and MPs from the county.

However, the murmuring resumed when the lawmakers returned to Dr Ruto in the company of another aspirant –Urbanus Ngengele – the following day.

The DP favours an opinion poll, and not party primaries, to select a candidate for the Machakos Senate seat.

The outcome of the poll, which is commissioned by Dr Ruto, is to be made public by Wednesday.

Stamping authority

“We have agreed to pick the most suitable candidate as shown by the opinion poll and discuss with the others the modalities of working together to deliver the seat,” Mr Muthama said after the Wednesday meeting.

Jubilee, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Amani National Congress (ANC), Wiper Party and Ford Kenya are grappling with similar concerns, especially after Dr Ruto adopted a disgruntled aspirant in November 2020 Msambweni by-election, Feisal Bader who ran as an independent ticket, flooring ODM’s Omar Boga.

The seat had been left vacant following the death of Mr Suleiman Dori in March.

Mr Boga had been billed as the frontrunner.

Dr Ruto’s Jubilee wing – Tangatanga – hopes to ride on that victory and in the other by-elections to stamp its authority as a force to reckon with as the country witnesses more alignments and realignments ahead of next year.

In Matungu, ANC gave a direct ticket to Mr Peter Nabulindo – who ran on a Ford Kenya ticket in 2017.

The decision has seen those who wanted the Musalia Mudavadi party’s nod go independent as others support rival candidates.

Read: Top guns in by-election plan to lock Ruto out of western Kenya

This is threatening ANC’s chances as both ODM and UDA train their eyes on the seat.

Mr Justus Murunga, the immediate former Matungu MP, was a member of ANC. He died in mid-November, triggering the mini-poll.

More than 20 people hope to replace Mr Boniface Kabaka as Machakos senator. Mr Kabaka died while being treated at a city hospital last month.

The race has exposed the underbellies of the key political players in the region.

High octane drama has defined the political scene as Chama Cha Uzalendo (CCU), Wiper and Jubilee scramble for aspirants ahead of the March 18 by-election.

Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua’s Maendeleo Chap Chap party has settled on former Water minister John Mutua Katuku as its candidate.

The other major political parties mark time in picking theirs  ahead of the January 18 deadline set by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

The former Mwala MP has already assembled a campaign team and has been meeting various groups.

The race is billed a supremacy battle between Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Dr Mutua and Mr Muthama.

However, some analysts believe the March 9, 2018 handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga, the fallout in the ruling Jubilee Party, the 2022 succession battle and the support for the push for constitutional amendments through the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) will also influence the outcome of the elections.

That is why the parties are keen on dispatching agile candidates to the ring, doing so in a manner that should not be seen as playing into the hands of rival outfits. 

The delay has, however, stirred internal acrimony in some of these political parties.

The Sunday Nation has established that infighting in the formations and political brinkmanship among the key players has fuelled the confusion.

To minimise the risk of falling out, parties have chosen not to conduct primaries in picking their candidates.

CCU has, for instance, been vetting aspirants on their suitability.

CCU Secretary-General Philippe Sadjah promised to unveil a candidate next week.

“We have avoided primaries for fear of interference by our rivals,” Mr Sadjah said.

Wiper vetted former Kibwezi MP Kalembe Ndile, BBI campaigns coordinator in the region Jackson Kala and Ms Jennifer Mutinda, one of the wives of former senator Kabaka, on Wednesday.

A panel of party officials and politicians conducted the interviews.

Ms Mutinda was expected to run on CCU ticket, the party that her husband led.

However, Transport Chief Administrative Secretary Wavinya Ndeti persuaded her to ditch CCU for Wiper at the last minute, upsetting a section of Wiper’s rank-and-file and CCU.

Mr Sadja said his party was the first to reach out to the Kabaka widow.

Wiper suffered a similar setback when the Tangatanga team pulled the rug from under its feet by poaching Mr Ngengele, a city businessman who had initially said he would contest as an independent.

Mr Ngengele was among the first people Mr Musyoka’s party approached to run for the seat.

With the support of Ms Ndeti, senators Mutula Kilonzo Jnr (Makueni) and Enoch Wambua (Kitui), as well as MPs Daniel Maanzo (Makueni) and Patrick Makau (Mavoko) who sat at the Wiper interviewing panel on Wednesday, Ms Mutinda exuded confidence that she would clinch the Wiper party ticket.

The dash to pick a candidate has seen Dr Ruto meet some of his allies from the region three times in the last seven days.

The meeting between MPs Victor Munyaka (Machakos Town), Vincent Munyaka (Mwala), Nimrod Mbai (Kitui East) and former Kathiani MP Peter Kaindi and the DP on Monday sparked grumbling among Mr Muthama’s associates and laid bare previously unseen cracks in Dr Ruto’s supporters at least as far as filling the Machakos Senate seat is concerned.

Unite region

Mr Muthama prefers former Machakos deputy governor Bernard Kiala who has not only declared his candidacy but also strongly believes he is the best man to fly the flag for the team that identifies with the “Hustler nation” – what Ruto and his team call themselves.

Mr Munyaka, however, is among the several leaders who say Mr Kiala is a hard sell.

The MP leads the pack that openly campaigns for Mr Kaindi.

ODM, ANC and Ford-Kenya have devised a multi-pronged approach in the Matungu and Kabuchai parliamentary by-elections to lock out Dr Ruto from making inroads in their strongholds.

Already, ODM has  tasked Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya to employ a door-to-door campaign strategy in ensuring the party captures the seat.

ODM Elections Director Junet Mohamed on Wednesday said the campaigns in Matungu will be under the supervision and command of Mr Oparanya.

“We will work under the command of Governor Oparanya,” Mr Mohamed told the Sunday Nation. 

Mr Oparanya had said the campaigns would be different from the previous ones.

“Due to the stringent health measures and the ban on political gatherings by the President because of the Covid-19 pandemic, we shall go down to the villages and campaign for our candidates. We are confident of a win,” the Kakamega governor, who is also the ODM deputy party leader and Council of Governors chairman, said.

ANC and Ford-Kenya are banking joint efforts in the two by-elections to emerge victorious and block DP’s incessant attempts to rally the former Western Province behind his 2022 State House bid.

On the other hand, the Orange party is expected to be neutral in Kabuchai constituency, Bungoma county.

ANC will not field a candidate in Kabuchai.

The Mudavadi-led party will support Mr Majimbo Simiyu Kalasinga, who won the Ford Kenya nominations last Tuesday.

The decision, according to the allies of Mr Mudavadi and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula, is meant to unite the region as the 2022 General Election fast approaches.

The Kabuchai contest presents the biggest test for Ford-Kenya and the greatest challenge to Senator Wetang’ula.

Mr Kalasinga’s victory would send a strong message that he is still in charge of the party that has had wrangles in the past few months.

Some MPs in Bungoma even initiated a coup but Mr Wetang’ula retained his seat following a court order.

Dr Ruto has for the last three years been doing all he can to make inroads in Western Kenya, at times holding several political and charity events in the region in a day.

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Additional reporting by Onyango K’onyango, Barnabas Bii and Shaban Makokha