Allies of former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua are likely to defy his surprise call for them to resign from the UDA and seek fresh mandates under his yet-to-be-named party once the electoral body is reconstituted for fear of losing their seats.
Resigning from an elected seat to face the electorate has the potential to see some of the elected leaders lose their seats barely two and a half years into their five-year terms.
Such an election would also mean leaders digging deep into their pockets to fund the campaigns, while some are yet to recover from the 2022 expenses.
Analysts describe the move as a big political gamble that could also backfire on Mr Gachagua, as some of his allies may decide to desert him if they are forced to resign against their will to join the new outfit.
Some of the MPs allied to Mr Gachagua have already expressed a sense of uncertainty over the call, with none of the leaders committing themselves to resign and ask for a fresh vote.
Mr Gachagua told KTN in an interview on Monday that some 139 county assembly members had already indicated their willingness to resign from the UDA and seek a fresh mandate.
He said the region had since become hostile to President William Ruto's UDA, making it unpalatable for the leaders to continue serving on the ticket.
"We have decided to wait for the IEBC to be constituted and then we will launch our party. We will have several by-elections. As of today, we have 139 MCAs who want to resign from UDA and go for by-elections.
“We will force a small general election after the IEBC is constituted because our people do not want to live a lie. Mt Kenya people are honest people, they are people of integrity and they don't know how to pretend," said Mr Gachagua.
He added: "I encourage my MCAs, MPs, and Senators who are taking this very brave decision because it is very brave to leave a seat you have been elected to and go back to the people, I want to assure them the way I am listening to our people, any leader who takes this decision will be re-elected with a very serious majority and they will be heroes of our people and their politics will thrive for decades to come".
But such by-elections would also mean that leaders would face candidates from other political parties in a country where around three in five MPs are voted out of office at every election.
In the August 2022 election, voters sent home 211 members of the National Assembly and Senate. In the National Assembly, 146 lawmakers representing constituencies were sent packing, while 34 of the 47 female representatives were shown the door. Voters dismissed 31 senators out of 47 elected lawmakers.
The trend is no different in 2017, with at least 166 out of 290 MPs losing their positions after being sent packing by their opponents.
This means that three out of five MPs, or 60 per cent, who served in the 11th Parliament were voted out. In the 2017 elections, only 119 out of 290 MPs were re-elected. The turnover in the Senate was similarly high, with only 14 out of 35 Senators making a comeback. Twelve of the 47 elected senators decided to run for governor.
The IEBC selection committee has indicated that it will complete the recruitment of new commissioners for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) by April 25.
Mr Gachagua has also indicated that he will name his new party in May, paving the way for what he has described as a mass resignation to force the mini-polls in his Mt Kenya bastion.
Based on timelines, this means that the earliest the IEBC could hold such by-elections would be towards the end of the year, less than two years before the next general election.
Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu, an ally of Mr Gachagua, said there was such a plan, but explained that not everyone would resign, only a select few.
Former Rigathi Gachagua allies (From left) Kajiado North MP Onesmus Ngogoyo, Murang'a Senator Joe Nyutu and Nyandarua Senator Mr John Methu.
Photo credit: Pool
However, he said the plan will be implemented once the new party, which will be the vehicle through which MPs will seek a fresh mandate, is in place.
"It is true that we are going to provoke a by-election, but we have not decided who and when. So I don't want the people of Murang'a to think that I am one of those who will step down because I don't think this is the right time," said Mr Nyutu.
The senator said Mr Gachagua's team has all the senators from Mt Kenya West except Nyeri's Wahome Wamatinga, as well as senators from Laikipia and Kajiado.
He added that they also have a majority of MPs from all the major counties in Mt Kenya except Nyeri where many are still fence-sitters.
Similar sentiments were expressed by Nyandarua Senator John Methu, who told the Nation that he would need to consult his constituents before committing himself.
"We will consult our people, especially my constituents. Once we agree on the direction, we will pursue it," Mr Methu said.
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru alias Mejjadonk also refused to commit to stepping down. However, he noted that they have been pushed to the wall in the UDA and have no option but to look for a new outfit.
DPP recommends charging MPs James Gakuya, Benjamin MejjaDonk and three others with incitement, money laundering and conspiracy to commit a felony.
Photo credit: File | Nation
He said those who choose to resign will be given a direct ticket by the new party to avoid having to face competitive party primaries.
"If we continue to be in the UDA, the people will blame us for the bad policies that the UDA is implementing," Mr Gathiru said.
He noted: "If a sitting member decides to resign, it would be unfair to subject them to competition. I think they would be given the party ticket without any competition. I won't tell you whether I am ready to resign or not.”
A study by governance experts Karuti Kanyinga and Tom Mboya shows that candidates who spend more money have a better chance of winning an election.
The study, published in 2021, puts the cost of running for the Senate at Sh35.5 million and Sh22.8 million for the position of women's representative. The average cost of a constituency MP is Sh18.2 million, while that of a county assembly member is estimated at Sh3.1 million.
Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, an ally of Dr Ruto, dared MPs to resign once the IEBC was reconstituted, saying UDA would field candidates to face them.
Mr Sakaja, who was set to face Embakasi North James Gakuya for the UDA Nairobi branch chairmanship, said some of the MPs would lose their seats.
Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja at his office in Nairobi.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
"Let them put their money where their mouth is. We are waiting for them to resign so that we can field candidates to face them," Mr Sakaja said.
"Let them not just make threats. We will prove to them that the UDA has influence, even in Nairobi," he added.
President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party, through its secretary general Jeremiah Kioni, also told the Nation that the former ruling party would consider fielding candidates should those elected on UDA decide to step down. He, however, described the decision as selfish and aimed at political preservation for some individuals.
"If they decide to stand down, everyone would be free to field candidates. But I would urge them to look at the bigger picture of preparing for the 2027 elections because forcing by-elections would only hurt the economy of our region," said Mr Kioni.
US-based university lecturer and political analyst, Prof David Monda, says the move is a big political gamble that could backfire on Mr Gachagua.
"It's a big gamble. A gamble because his allies may abandon him for safer and more secure political options if Gachagua demands that they seek new mandates.
“It is also a risk for him because Gachagua could be left with allies who lose local elections and then demand political favours in the form of soft landings. That is, losing allies who demand potential political appointments or material rewards for their loyalty," says Prof Monda.
"He adds: "It also comes with significant potential political rewards. As we learned from Ms Kamala Harris' disastrous 2024 presidential bid, it is very important to earn the ticket to run for political office from the electorate."
Only opposition leader Raila Odinga took such a gamble in 1997 when he resigned as Lang'ata MP. He managed to win back the seat.
Mr Odinga was elected to the seat in 1992 on a Ford Kenya ticket. But when his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, died in January 1994, he challenged Michael Kijana Wamalwa for the party leadership and lost. He later resigned from Ford Kenya and joined the National Development Party (NDP).
