Azimio la Umoja Coalition leader Raila Odinga congratulates Prof Anyang Nyong'o after being sworn in Kisumu Governor at Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium on August 25,2022.
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga faces a tough balancing act as he seeks the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC), while trying to secure his ODM party leadership post.
By handing over his party post to Kisumu Governor Peter Anyang' Nyong'o on an interim basis on Wednesday, the move underscored his need to protect his political clout at home, while pursuing a higher continental post.
Mr Odinga had said he would move from Kenyan to African politics in his quest for the AUC post, signaling his possible exit from active local politics.
"I will not be very active in Kenyan politics henceforth as I continue to focus my attention on the continental campaign. But it's a transition period from active participation in Kenyan politics to African politics," he said.
But analysts have linked Mr Odinga's reluctance to step down from the ODM leadership to "uncertainty over his AUC bid".
While ODM insiders told the Nation that Mr Odinga had initially planned to formally relinquish the party's leadership to fully focus on his AUC bid, his U-turn to hand over to a "caretaker leader" could mean that he would still return to the helm should he lose the AUC elections set for February 2025.
Mr Odinga faces Djibouti's Foreign Minister Mahmoud Youssouf, ex-Mauritius Foreign Minister Anil Kumarsingh Gayan, and his former Madagascar counterpart Richard James Randriamandrato.
Of his three opponents, the Djiboutian minister is said to be his strongest challenger because of "his experience and strong support from regional organisations".
"Mr Odinga will kiss Kenyan politics goodbye if he secures the AUC role. He will assume a Pan-African mandate as his in-tray will be filled to the rafters," says political analyst Dismas Mokua.
However, he argues that Mr Odinga has given up his party leadership post on an interim basis as a "management of expectations strategy".
"He is being careful not to create a leadership split and crisis, while campaigning for the AUC role. This has nothing to do with the uncertainty of his AUC candidacy," he adds.
But for Herman Manyora, it will be next to impossible for Mr Odinga to stop pursuing his politics in Kenya just because of the AUC bid.
"The AUC won't stop Raila from pursuing his politics in Kenya. So the successor will have to be a caretaker leader," Mr Manyora told the Nation.
"Mr Raila Odinga has handed over the leadership of the ODM party to Prof Nyong'o on an interim basis in line with his AUC bid expectations. This move was deliberate and in line with the expectations of the international audience and AUC's best practices. The event was ceremonial and optical".
He argues that while Prof Nyong'o is the de jure leader of the ODM, Mr Odinga remains the de facto leader.
ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna insisted that in Mr Odinga's absence, Prof Nyong'o would only have to chair the party's Central Management Committee (CMC), the only organ normally chaired by the party leader.
"ODM has many organs, all other organs are chaired by the National Chairman. From the National Delegates Convention to the National Governing Council.
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"The only one that is chaired by the party leader is the Central Committee and we want to give him (Mr Odinga) time to do these (AUC) campaigns," Mr Sifuna said.
He said as a party, they don't want to reach a point where a meeting is necessary, and "we don't have a chairman because our constitution does not allow any other person to chair the CMC except a person appointed by the party leader".
"That is why he has appointed Nyong'o to do that job when a meeting is needed and he is not there. If he is there, he will continue to chair those meetings. There must be a need for this committee to meet and that's why this step has been taken," the official said.
Mr Mokua argues that it does not matter the leadership line-up in ODM because "Raila remains the glue that holds ODM together - Raila is ODM and ODM is Raila".
"Raila is the only ODM member and leader who can inflict pain and joy in the party. The ability to inflict pain and joy exclusively in ODM makes Raila the de facto leader of ODM. Everyone in ODM has to kiss Raila's ring," he says.
Some of Mr Odinga's allies in ODM have been mulling a future political coalition with President William Ruto, which could explain why the veteran politician still needs to be at the helm of his party to make key decisions.
Basking in the glory of their members' recent appointments to the broad-based Cabinet, ODM politicians including Mr Odinga's elder brother - Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga - say nothing would stop them from working with the Head of State if he delivers on his promises.
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, who is also the secretary general of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya, urged the head of state to ensure that Mr Odinga wins the AU chairmanship.
"Raila's AU aspiration is very important to us. We have seen a great start with the EAC presidents around.
"If we secure that post; mambo itakuwa matatu na hiyo matatu tutatangaza siku ingine (We will only have three issues and we will declare them at the appropriate time)," Mr Mohamed added.
Dr Oginga said his brother has since embraced President Ruto, adding that they are ready to pay his 2007 political debt.
"He has been welcomed in the Luo nation more than any other time he has been here. This is because Raila embraced him and I think it is not bad kurudisha mkono (paying a political debt)," Dr Oginga said.
He noted that President Ruto played a major role in making Mr Odinga Prime Minister of Kenya in 2007.
"He did not just support him by word of mouth, he mobilised people in the Rift Valley who voted for him to a man, yet we did not give him much in the last election," Dr Oginga said.
He continued: "...but we are telling you Mr President that as things move, let us continue to talk and negotiate and let our people feel the government, let them feel that they are also part of the government.
"We have given you our cream of the party. We have given you our two deputy party leaders (Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya), given you John Mbadi who was our chairman, and Opiyo Wandayi who was the minority leader in parliament, that's the cream of our party and we want them to work for Kenyans".
Dr Oginga wants President Ruto to ensure that the community is included in government, in employment in all sectors of government, "so that Luos feel they are part of the government".
Mr Odinga is expected to be endorsed by the Organisation of African Trade Union Unity (OATUU), which is meeting in Accra, Ghana, from 9 to 12 October.
OATUU president Francis Atwoli said the organisation was expected to endorse Mr Odinga for the AUC post "given his antecedents and his eight-point vision for Africa".
The organisation, he said, represents 60 affiliates and 25 million workers across Africa.
"During the meeting, OATUU has invited President of Ghana Nana Akufo-Addo and Mr Raila Odinga as chief guest and keynote speaker respectively," said Mr Atwoli.
