ODM leader Raila Odinga at the funeral service of the late Mzee Chirchir Masit in Keiyo South Constituency on August 13, 2024.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s declaration that he plans to exit local politics to take up a continental role has triggered a flurry of jostling and lobbying for succession in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party.
During a second joint-press briefing with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi in Nairobi, Mr Odinga said it was all systems go in his campaigns for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship bid.
"I'm not going to be very active in Kenyan politics henceforth as I continue to focus my attention on the continental campaign. But it is a transitional phase from active participation in Kenyan politics to moving towards African continental politics," he said.
"I'm going to begin to work with the continent once I'm elected and that's going to be in February next year,” he said.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, a veteran politician with reformist credentials is among names already being mentioned as possible successors of Mr Odinga in the running of the party. A source in the party said that Mr Orengo has the backing of colleague governors, especially from Nyanza and Western.
Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o who is doing his final term as Kisumu Governor is also being touted as a potential successor of Mr Odinga. ODM draws most of its support from Luo Nyanza hence the argument that the leader to succeed Mr Odinga has to come from the region.
Mr Orengo has remained loyal to Mr Odinga since the death of his father Jaramogi Oginga. His brave and fearless trait of speaking truth to power has also endeared him to the population that has largely been in the opposition politics for decades.
His political journey with Mr Odinga dates back to the late 1980s and early 1990s when both were part of the opposition’s Young Turks fighting the second liberation struggle.
Those pushing for his elevation have cited the recent party appointments when he was sidelined in the party’s new lineup of officials.
Mr Orengo was among senior ODM politicians who was recently left out when Mr Odinga unveiled new faces to take up plum party positions left by those who joined the Cabinet. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga was nominated as party’s National Chairman, replacing John Mbadi who has joined the executive as National and Economic Planning Cabinet Secretary.
Mombasa Governor Abdullswamad Nassir, Kisii Governor Simba Arati and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi were endorsed by the party’s Central Management Committee as the party’s three Deputy Party Leaders, replacing Ali Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya.
Ms Wanga told Sunday Nation that discussion about who takes the role of party leader was still premature. She said the jostling should wait until Mr Odinga takes up the AUC job.
“There is still a lot of time before the election. It is only after the election that party organs will have such discussion. At the moment, it is like trying to inherit someone’s wife when the husband is still alive,” Governor Wanga said.
Mr Orengo has not publicly declared his interests in the position, but his recent utterances suggest he is keen on taking up the role.
Last week when Azimio Coalition partners started discussion of kicking out Mr Odinga from the coalition leadership, the county governor known for his role in the second liberation said even if the former premier was out of the coalition’s leadership, his successor can only come from ODM, which is the largest party in the alliance.
According to Mr Orengo, the leadership of the coalition after the exit of Mr Odinga will be determined by the strength of one’s party within the outfit.
“The next Azimio party leader is subject to discussion; however, it must reflect the strength of the party within the outfit. That is not only in the standing orders but also in the Azimio instruments. The ODM party is, by far, a major stakeholder in the coalition,” said Mr Orengo.
He added, “The rules and the standing orders at the national assembly and the senate, nominations in terms of seats of both the houses depend on the strengths of the political parties within the coalition,” he said.
Mr Osotsi, one of the party’s deputy leaders told Sunday Nation said talks of succeeding Mr Odinga are non-issue at the moment since the former premier has not taken up the continental role. Mr Osotsi also said that there is no law barring Raila for continuing being in ODM after taking up the AUC post.
“There is no law under the sun that stops Baba from belonging to a political party and his party of choice is ODM. Baba will continue being part of the ODM team either as a player or a coach. Baba understands the two roles very well,” said Mr Osotsi.
“He is more effective and lethal when he is a coach. The 2002 election Baba played as a coach and delivered the Kibaki presidency and sent the then stubborn KANU regime to political obituary. I see ODM remaining strong even if baba exits to AU. Those people expecting to rip from the impossible ODM collapse are dreaming,” he added.
