President William Ruto faces a tough balancing act as his allies begin the impeachment process against his deputy Rigathi Gachagua.
Whereas the president’s camp boasts of having marshaled the requisite number of signatures to remove the DP from office, the move could have far-reaching political ramifications in the country.
Mr Gachagua has already indicated that it would be unfair to hound him from office by more than 200 MPs yet he and President Ruto were elected by more than 7.2 million voters, insisting on public participation to have all Kenyans decide his fate and not some leaders.
The Constitution, however, allows for the impeachment of Deputy President under Article 150.The impeachment motion must be supported by one-third, which is 117 members, and then supported by 233 members of the National Assembly for it to pass.
“I’m just a weak man and I’m in the hands of Members of Parliament and senators. I will accept their decisions together with my people.
“But we were elected by 7.2 million Kenyans and it is a surprise to hear that about 200 MPs want to say that the leader who was elected by Kenyans is no longer needed,” the DP said during televised interview on Monday night.
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga, a close ally of the DP, had indicated that they will not take the impeachment lying down, insisting that “for every action, there will be an intense reaction”, signalling a possible “noisy and messy divorce”.
Political analysts say that a solution to the differences between the President and his deputy through an ouster motion only has the potential to flare up the current political temperatures.
“What the President should do is to call his house to order and wait for 2027 to have a deputy of his choice since removing Gachagua will not solve the problem of corruption and tribalism that the country is currently entangled in,” Political analyst Richard Bosire told Nation .
But the President’s camp insists impeachment remains the best solution that would end the long-standing Kenya Kwanza chaos where the government has failed to speak in one voice, thus sending mixed signals to the public.
This now leaves the Head of State with a delicate balancing act in his bid to satisfy competing interests in his administration.
First, Dr Ruto will have to placate the brewing conflict between Mt Kenya East and West, where Mr Gachagua’s allies have faulted him for breeding divisions.
Apart from satisfying the competing interests for Mt Kenya East and West, President Ruto is also staring at another headache of appointing his deputy should Mr Gachagua be ousted.
Whereas Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki from Mt Kenya East has emerged as a front runner, Nation has established a secret push to have a leader from the West to take over in a bid to “pacify” the region.
Female Governors uniting under the G7 banner last week endorsed outgoing Council of Governors (CoG) Chairperson Anne Waiguru for deputy president position in the 2027 elections, even as Nation established behind the scenes push to have the Kirinyaga governor replace Mr Gachagua should the DP be impeached.
Those vouching for Ms Waiguru believe that as a woman, and a native of Mt Kenya West, President Ruto “can kill two birds with one stone” and pacify the region.
There are also talks to have Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, the third ranking member of the Executive, to replace Mr Gachagua in the event he is impeached.
Political analyst Richard Bosire told Nation that Mr Gachagua’s removal from office does not make Mt Kenya region the automatic beneficiary of his DP post, adding that the President has a latitude to appoint any Kenyan to hold the position.
“It is a mirage to say the DP post is a preserve of the mountain. We cannot keep on recycling regions in the Executive. This will be the best opportunity to have a deputy president from another region instead of recycling two regions in the leadership of this country,” Mr Bosire told Nation .
President Ruto will have to scratch his head to make a decision that would forestall the current rising political tensions in the country.
The Head of State, who is heavily relying on his political foe-turn-friend Raila Odinga in his current political chess game, also has to be cautious as the ODM leader’s troops are yet to embrace the union as a united house.
Mr Odinga’s camp has been experiencing divisions over the move by some of their members to work with the government under the broad-based arrangement.
The high profile ODM leaders named in the broad-based cabinet are former deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, former ODM National Chairman John Mbadi and ex-Secretary of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, as well as former member of the party's elections board Ms Beatrice Askul.
A senior ODM official told Nation that the current scenario in the party is that of a divided house.
“What we have now is ODM in Government (ODM-IG) and ODM in Opposition (ODM-IO),” the senior official quipped.
This could spell uncertain future for the president should he sever links with Mr Gachagua and ODM refuses to play ball.
Removing the DP is also likely to lead to grueling fight in the Judiciary as the DP’s allies have lined up a fightback to save his political soul.
Already, the High court on Monday declined four attempts, including by former United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Secretary-General Cleophas Malala, to stop Parliament from commencing the process of impeaching the DP, signaling more cat fights in the courts of law that could only fuel the political temperatures in the country.
The Mt Kenya East and West politics that has tome to play at the moment could either make or break the President’s efforts to deal with his deputy.
At least 48 legislators drawn from Mt Kenya region and its ‘diaspora’ have declared Prof Kindiki who hails from the East as their spokesperson, eclipsing Mr Gachagua from the role.
They argued that the absence of a centralized representative had hindered efforts to advance the region’s agenda.
“Given the prevailing state of affairs and the urgency of the mission ahead, there is need to have a link that will create a nexus between us and the National Executive on matters development,” the MPs said in a joint statement.
But Mr Gachagua has warned that there is an elaborate plan to divide the region, adding that the people of Mt Kenya will not accept to be separated.
“Some people are lying to the president that we can remove Gachagua and have someone else, that the people of Mt Kenya will forget because we still have three years to the next election.
“I want to tell him that the people of Mt Kenya will not forget the atrocities committed against them. They have never forgotten the atrocities committed against them by the colonialists and former president Moi, and they will not forget what they are being taken through now. They will always keep it in their hearts,” the DP said in Meru at the weekend.
Mr Bosire adds that the Mt Kenya East and West politics will only introduce more fault-lines and further cause divisions in the country.
“It is unfortunate that we are still playing the old politics of dividing regions for political expediency,” the analyst said.
Mogotio MP Reuben Kiborek, a member of the president’s UDA party argues that the process for the removal of the DP is now irreversible.
“More than 300 MPs who want to remove the DP from office cannot be all wrong and he is the only one who is right. We have agreed that he goes home,” said Mr Kiborek.
The legislator said MPs were now ready to pay the price, including of serving as one term legislators “so long as we make him a half term deputy president.”
