Weatherman: Brace for depressed rainy season
Rains pound the streets of Nairobi on January 19, 2022. The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of yet another depressed rainy season during the months of October to December thanks to an uncharacteristic cooling of the Indian Ocean.
What you need to know:
- The Met Department says this is due to an uncharacteristic cooling of the Indian Ocean.
- The short rainy season set for October to December is projected to start late and end early in most parts of the country.
- The weatherman attributes the depressed rainfall season to climate change triggered by La Nina.
The weatherman has told Kenyans to brace for yet another depressed rainy season during the months of October to December thanks to an uncharacteristic cooling of the Indian Ocean.
According to the seasonal weather forecast tabled by David Gikungu, the Kenya Meteorological Department director, the short rainy season is projected to start late and end early throughout the country save for Bungoma and Uasin Gishu counties which will receive normal rainfall.
"There will be a delay in the onset of the October-November-December rainy season and a possible early ending of the season in most parts of the country," he said Friday while unveiling the seasonal weather report at a Machakos hotel.
The weatherman attributes the depressed rainfall season to climate change triggered by La Nina, a global phenomenon characterized by uncharacteristic cooling of ocean temperatures, and advises the government and farmers to plan accordingly.
La Nina
"We have been observing the La Nina phenomenon. This is normally coupled with observation of different temperature levels over the Indian Ocean. We have been observing very low temperatures on the Western end of the Indian Ocean which borders the Kenyan coastline," he said.
"The low temperatures over the Indian Ocean have taken longer than we have seen over a number of decades. That is largely the reason for the depressed rainfall at the times that we would have expected that to happen. The fear now is that we do not know when that may end," he added.
Although the rain is projected to be depressed, it is expected to be associated with disasters such as flash flooding and the outbreak of diseases such as malaria and yellow fever.
"We expect county governments to put in place measures to fight malaria," said Michael Mwania, a senior Ministry of Health official.
Read: Why weatherman is predicting rain but hot sun comes up
If the prediction by the weatherman comes true, the October-November-December period will be the third consecutive season to record depressed rainfall in most parts of the country.
Such depressed rainfall is associated with declined performance in the agriculture sector.
"You will have less feed for the animals, less water for fish and less rainfall for crops. This will definitely trigger other things such as an increase in food prices," said Jane Njeri, a senior official at the climate change management unit in the Ministry of Agriculture.
Localised forecasts
In light of the broad seasonal forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture is set to create localised forecasts in consultation with farmers and other stakeholders.
"Immediately after this forecast, we shall have localised participatory scenario planning, a downscaled forecast at the counties. It is participatory in that we bring in the farmers so that they can tell us what can work for them, and what is practical for them. We work together and come up with a way forward," Ms Njeri said.
Read: Weatherman warns of flooding as rainy season starts
The possible mitigation measures that the Ministry of Agriculture recommends to farmers include planting early maturing and drought tolerant crops and pasture as well as going for climate-smart agriculture value chains such as high-yielding crop varieties which are adaptive to the various zones.
"Farmers should preserve whatever produce is in their possession to ensure subsistence food reserves," Ms Njeri said.
At the same time, the weatherman has advised the government to start working towards importing foodstuffs, off taking livestock and promoting climate-smart agriculture value chains as part of the contingency measures in wake of the expected decline in the performance of the agriculture sector linked to depressed rainfall.
