Donald Trump has reportedly agreed a deal for the US to jointly develop Ukraine’s mineral resources. Although the agreement, which has yet to be signed, is not thought to include any security guarantees for Ukraine, Kyiv will hope it will pave the way for continued US support in its fight against Russia’s invasion.
The deal also appears not to include Trump’s previous demand for rights to US$500 billion (£394 billion) of revenue from Ukraine’s rare and critical minerals. But it will help secure American access to what are essential resources in the 21st-century economy and for which the US has been heavily reliant on supplies from other countries, notably China.
Rare minerals such as gallium are critical for advanced defence technologies but are not readily available to the US domestically. And China, a leading supplier of gallium, has used its control over the resource as leverage against the US. It has imposed a ban on rare minerals being exported to the US, as part of its retaliation to increased US tariffs on Chinese goods.
Other minerals are crucial for military technology such as missile system, electronics and electric vehicles. In Ukraine, there are deposits for 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical .
So Trump sees a resolution to the Ukraine war as an opportunity to secure alternative sources of critical minerals, reducing US dependency on China and allowing Trump to take a more aggressive approach towards it. He also may not have predicted that China would hit back against the US tariffs with restrictions on these vital resources quite so quickly.
Gallium is valued by the defence manufacturing industry because it is reliable and durable. In particular, the element is seen as a crucial tool enhancing radar, satellite communication systems , and electronic warfare systems. It is also used in multi-chip modules utilised by navigation and air traffic control systems.
In addition to gallium, Ukraine has vast resources of graphite , an element that is used in the construction of electric vehicles and nuclear reactors, and a third of Europe’s supply of lithium , which is used in batteries.
Trump’s focus on critical minerals has also influenced his interest in Greenland which possesses significant reserves of critical minerals, making it a potential alternative to Chinese-controlled resources.
Why is China so important?
Trump’s concern over China is also driving his negotiations with Russia more generally. One of Trump’s core concerns is China’s partnership with Russia. There is no doubt that China is now the dominant force in the Sino-Russian alliance .
Given the increasing cooperation between the two nations in military, economic, and technological areas, Trump believes that China’s influence in global affairs needs to be countered aggressively. The Trump administration has sought to undermine the alliance by softening the US’s approach to Russia, a move that has shocked European leaders.
Trump has long viewed China as the major threat to the US, considering it their biggest economic rival and a significant obstacle to making America “great again”.
His economic policies have targeted Chinese trade practices, supply chain dependencies and geopolitical manoeuvres. One of his key trade advisers has argued American businesses are at a disadvantage from China’s state-controlled economy, intellectual property theft and trade imbalance.
The recent tariffs imposed by the US on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, were intended to make US products more competitive by driving up the cost of Chinese imports, thereby encouraging businesses and consumers to buy domestic goods instead.
At the same time, Trump sought to weaken China’s export economy by making it more difficult for Chinese companies to sell goods in the US. His tariff policies extended beyond China, with similar measures being considered for Europe.
By targeting multiple regions, Trump aimed to shift global supply chains and solidify the US as a manufacturing powerhouse. By ending the war in Ukraine, Trump believes the US can redirect funds and resources used in Europe toward countering China’s growing influence.
Trump has tried to justify the tariffs on China by claiming Chinese manufacturers are responsible for the mass production of fentanyl, which is then trafficked into the US through various channels. Trump has proposed stricter measures to curb the flow of fentanyl, including sanctions and tariffs on Chinese firms allegedly involved in its production.
Following China’s retaliation, Trump needs peace in Ukraine and the consequential mineral agreement with Kyiv before China’s ban on exports to the US affects critical US manufacturing. Such an agreement would then allow him to take an even more aggressive posture with China with fewer consequences.
However, Zelensky recently claimed that Russia has taken control of 20% of Ukraine’s minerals since the invasion. And it’s possible it will be years before any American investor gets any return on their money due to a chronic lack of investment in Ukraine’s minerals sector for almost a decade.
So even if Trump’s deal goes ahead, he will have to wait a while before Ukraine’s minerals will fulfil the US’s needs.
Written by Dafydd Townley Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth
