The following comments were made to Reuters after Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was killed by the Israeli military in a powerful airstrike in Beirut.
Hezbollah confirmed he had been killed, without saying how.
ROSEMARY KELANIC, DIRECTOR OF MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM AT DEFENSE PRIORITIES
"The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, by an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon will not fundamentally alter the course of this conflict. Decapitation strikes against terrorist leaders almost never result in an organization’s collapse. Collapse is especially unlikely when the targeted organization is old, entrenched, and far-reaching, as in the case of Hezbollah. Killing Nasrallah does not substitute for having a theory of victory for how this conflict ends.
"Nasrallah’s death doesn’t change anything for the United States either, except that it further complicates American efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to prevent more bloodshed. The U.S. has no direct national security interest in this conflict. Washington should work more on staying out of the region’s troubles and less on trying to manage it with arms and troop deployments."
MEHRAN KAMRAVA, PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, QATAR
"There's a mixture of apprehension in the region's Arab capitals, and also a sense of joy — hidden joy — because, as you know, none of the conservative Arab states have been particularly fond of Hezbollah . In the regional capitals in particular, there is kind of an apprehension that (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu's expansion of the war would indeed succeed. He already has brought in Lebanon, and there is also some kind of relief that Hassan Nasrallah has been removed."
"From Tehran's perspective, even if the worst-case scenario has already happened, they are not going to act. Tehran has a doctrine called strategic patience, whereby they play the long game. And I think that doctrine will continue. They are reluctant to engage Israel in any direct way."
AZIZ ALGHASHIAN, SAUDI ANALYST SPECIALISING IN GULF-ISRAEL TIES
"There is clearly no love lost between Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah . They find Hezbollah very disruptive in the region ... With that said, the Saudis are not thinking short-term or shortsightedly. Yes, he may be gone, yes there is no love lost, but the Saudis are not thinking emotionally, they are thinking rationally. They are thinking now with concern about how this will have ramifications in the region. Moreover, they are probably wondering what the opportunities are that could come up from this. The reality is time will tell ... These are unbelievable developments. We are seeing things we did not think to see in a while."
ABDULLAH BAABOOD, NON-RESIDENT SCHOLAR AT CARNEGIE MIDDLE EAST CENTRE AND CHAIR FOR ISLAMIC AREA STUDIES AT WASEDA UNIVERSITY, JAPAN:
"I doubt if Iran will respond because Iran withstood an even much more obvious attack on its soil and did not respond directly. I think Iran would want to avoid doing that at all costs ... They understand that Netanyahu wants to implicate them and also, by extension, get them into an open conflict or open war with the United States."
“His assassination could mean many things. It depends, basically, on how the transition happens within the organization. It might fall down, into someone who's unknown. It's all up in the air, but as an organization, it has been significantly downgraded in terms of reputation, military capability, leadership. I think the ability to spring back and stand on their feet has been significantly diminished.
"This is a huge organization. Nasrallah was basically keeping them together. It was the glue of the organization."
