Scenarios: How the Manchester City cheating scandal could play out

One of the biggest cheating scandals in world sports history has erupted in England: Manchester City has reportedly been found guilty of 114 of the 115 alleged breaches of English Premier League financial rules brought against the club in 2023.

The charges relate to the club’s incredibly successful spell between 2009 and 2018 when they won seven major titles, headlined by three Premier League championships.

Manchester City was bought in 2008 by the Abu Dhabi United Group, led by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan – a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family.

The group now owns or has a stake in 13 football teams across the world, from New York to Melbourne, meaning there may be ramifications well beyond England.

But Manchester City is expected to appeal, having long protested its innocence – so this case is not over yet.

What are the charges?

The guilty findings are a potentially seismic development in a case that has hung over English football for more than three years.

The charges cover several areas, including:

• the accuracy of financial information supplied to the Premier League
• player and manager remuneration
• compliance with Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and Premier League financial regulations
• cooperation with the league’s investigation.

But there are important caveats. The independent commission’s decision has not yet been published, no sanction has been announced, Manchester City has consistently denied wrongdoing – which is why an appeal is expected.

Until the written decision is available, any assessment of precisely what City did and what should happen next would be premature.

What could happen to Manchester City?

Recent Premier League cases demonstrate how breaches of financial rules can result in sporting sanctions.

In recent years, Everton was initially deducted ten points (reduced to six points on appeal) for breaching the league’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules, while Nottingham Forest was deducted four points. Both sides narrowly avoided relegation after the sanctions.

But these cases provide limited guidance for Manchester City. They concerned relatively discrete breaches of spending rules, whereas the charges against City cover multiple categories of alleged misconduct over almost a decade.

So any attempt to extrapolate a likely points deduction for City from Everton or Forest would be speculative.

More severe possibilities – including relegation or expulsion from the Premier League – have inevitably been discussed, as has the prospect of retrospectively stripping City of titles.

Little precedent exists for the latter in English professional team sport. Saracens were relegated from rugby union’s Premiership following salary-cap breaches in 2020, but their previously won titles were not removed.

Australian sport, however, provides precedent. The National Rugby League (NRL) stripped the Melbourne Storm of their 2007 and 2009 premierships, three minor premierships, and all their 2010 competition points after it uncovered systematic salary cap breaches.

Those cases illustrate possible sporting sanctions. But they cannot establish what City’s penalty should be before the commission publishes its reasoning.

Could the consequences spread beyond Manchester?

The shockwaves from this case could also spread overseas.

The City Football Group owns or has a stake in 13 clubs worldwide – including Melbourne City, New York City and Italy’s Palermo.

For example, Melbourne City joined City Football Group in 2014 and is now wholly owned by it.

A Premier League sanction against the English team would not automatically apply to the Melbourne club.

Yet if the published findings concern governance, financial reporting or transactions within the wider ownership structure, they may prompt scrutiny of how the group oversees its international clubs.

That would not establish wrongdoing at Melbourne City or any other City Football Group club. It would test whether rules and oversight built around individual clubs adequately address shared ownership and decision-making across borders.

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