I learned my betting lesson painfully in junior secondary school.
We used to have this group of boys who would play cards long into the night. Do not ask me how this was possible when the school had strict rules on lights out time. Woe unto you if you were caught breaking that rule.
Students would wager money on these card games. Sometimes it was play for as little as 10 cents, 50 cents, even one shilling, but sometimes students would place Sh5, Sh10 or even Sh20, winner take all.
I used to see winners flossing with their newly acquired wealth, buying bread and other goodies at will.
Against my better judgment, I entered one of those card games one night, hoping to make some bread money. I played with one shilling, lost. Put in another shilling in an attempt to recover my dough. By the time we were retiring that night I had lost my entire term’s pocket money.
I later learned that several students in the group we played the card games with, with the connivance of the cards owner, knew how to identify almost every individual card. Those boys made a killing from the innocent players like me.
I did confront the card owner who, as expected, vehemently denied any knowledge of crooked play. Suffice to say, I could not report this matter to the school authorities lest I implicate myself.
It was a long wait for me before the next school visiting day. I have never gambled again in my life.
But if I were to bet again, I would wager Sh1m on Brazil winning the 2026 World Cup.
Yes, I am sticking my neck out. This is why?
One, in all seven World Cups held in the Americas thus far, no European team has won the trophy save for 2014 in Brazil when Germany went all the way.
Uruguay hosted and won the title in 1930 and in 1950 in Brazil. Brazil’s Selecao won in Mexico in 1970 and in the USA in 1994 while Argentina won on home soil in 1978 and in Mexico in 1986.
So this knocks out the two favourites from Europe, Spain and France.
Secondly, in the history of the World Cup only two teams have won back-to-back World Cup titles, Italy in 1934-1938 and Brazil in 1958-1962. It is very difficult to be on top of the football world for eight years and the aging champions Argentina are unlikely to go the distance.
Record five-time champion
Third, Brazil are a record five-time champion and have never gone beyond six editions without winning the World Cup trophy. They last won the tournament in 2002 in Korea/Japan and are, surely, destined to lay their hands on the coveted crown.
Fourth and finally, Brazil are for the first time in a long time entering a World Cup listed as others and not favourites, which will ease the pressure on the Carlos Ancelloti-coached squad and let them express themselves as only Brazilians can.
The accomplished Ancelloti admitted he sensed the pressure the squad faces to always put Brazil at the pedestal of world football.
He could not help saying: “We have two of the five best players in the world,”
Alisson, Gabriel Magalhães, Marquinhos, Casemiro, Fabinho, Lucas Paqueta, Gabriel Martinelli, Igor Thiago, Matheus Cunha, Neymar Junior, Raphinha, Vinicius Junior...
