The polarising and enigmatic American billionaire-politician, Donald Trump, is set to return to the White House as the world anticipates significant geopolitical changes under a Republican administration. Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States tomorrow (Monday, January 20), four years after a highly disputed presidential election in which he lost to the Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
Trump skipped the previous inauguration ceremony, fuelled by his unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election had been stolen from him, and after inciting an insurrection at the US Capitol. More than 1,000 individuals faced arraignment, and Trump was charged with attempting to subvert the will of the people.
Joe Biden, a Democrat, expressed his determination “to do everything I can to respect the peaceful transfer of power and restore the traditions we have long respected in America”. At least six outgoing heads of state — John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, Andrew Johnson, Woodrow Wilson, and Trump himself — did not attend their successors’ inauguration ceremonies.
Trump is making history by being the first president-elect in recent times to invite world leaders to his inauguration, with Argentina’s Javier Milei expected to attend. No world leader has attended an inauguration since 1874.
A key aspect of the event involves the president-elect reciting the oath of office that states: “I do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will, to the best of my ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.” Authorities anticipate more than 200,000 attendees, including Trump supporters and protesters.
“Trump’s commitment to economic revitalisation could lead to job creation and innovation, particularly in key industries such as energy, education, manufacturing, and technology. His focus on deregulation has the potential to create an environment in which businesses can thrive, ultimately benefiting workers and immigrants like me,” said Michael Musangi, a Kenyan living in Dallas, Texas.
He added: “His approach to foreign policy, which prioritises ‘America First’ while seeking to strengthen international partnerships, may ensure that US interests are upheld on the global stage. This could result in better trade deals and a safer, more stable world for all of us.”
Kalunga Mwanza, a Zambian living in Seattle, Washington, said: “We just wish him the best and hope that he will appreciate the role of immigrants in this great country. Americans voted for him and thereby granted him the mandate to govern. I don’t see any reason for alarm among immigrants.”
The US foreign policy could take a dramatic shift, although the ‘special relationship’ between Washington and Nairobi is expected to continue. The healthy bilateral relationship between the two nations is driven by shared commitment to regional security. Following the 1998 US Embassy bombings and the 9-11 attacks in New York City, the Horn of Africa has come under increased scrutiny as a strategic focal point in the war on terror.
Kenya faces the brunt of terrorist attacks as it borders Somalia, a known breeding ground for extremist groups like Al-Shabaab. Washington provides significant military aid and training support to Nairobi to build its capacity to counter threats. Kenya, meanwhile, offers critical support to US counter-terrorism efforts in the Horn, including hosting US military personnel and intelligence sharing.
In June of last year, Washington designated Kenya as a major non-Nato ally . Biden described this decision as “a fulfilment of years of collaboration”, enhancing Nairobi’s role in regional and international security at a time when its police officers were preparing to arrive in Port-au-Prince to combat gangs in the troubled Haitian capital. This designation made Kenya the fourth African nation to attain this status and the first in sub-Saharan Africa, solidifying its position as one of the US’s closest allies in the region.
China, meanwhile, poses a significant challenge to American interests on the continent. It offers financial assistance without attaching strict conditions, undermining Western lenders and their efforts to control African economies.
Beijing leverages its immense resources to invest in infrastructure projects throughout the continent, facilitating the extraction of natural resources in exchange. These investments yield multiple advantages for China, including lucrative contracts for Chinese companies and political support from African leaders on international issues.
“China is determined to establish itself as a business leader in Africa. Trump will likely visit Africa not out of a genuine concern for the continent but to counter Chinese influence on African soil. This competition, which can be seen as a proxy war and a shift in geopolitical strategies, could ultimately benefit Africa,” said Edgar Githua, a professor of international relations at Strathmore University.
Beijing has become an essential player in Africa, prioritising strong diplomatic relations and political and trade ties, with an ideological focus on solidarity among Third World countries.
“The US and the West have viewed Africa as a problem that needs to be solved, whereas China and other countries see it as an opportunity to be seized. The question is often, ‘What is Africa’s interest’?” said Murithi Mutiga, the programme director for Africa at the Crisis Group, in an interview with the Associated Press.
He added: “We’re in an age of transactional global relations, and unless Africa can engage in a way that articulates its interests, America's (interests in Africa) will continue to be determined by geopolitical competition with its rivals.”
Rory Truex, an associate professor at Princeton University who focuses on Chinese authoritarianism, expressed similar sentiments in a May 2024 New York Times article: “America’s collective national body is suffering from a chronic case of China anxiety. Nearly everything with the word ‘Chinese’ in front of it now triggers a fear response in our political system, muddling our ability to gauge and contextualise threats properly.”
Trump’s first term saw the launch of initiatives like Prosper Africa, which aimed to enhance economic engagement between the US and the continent. Since its inception in 2019, Washington has facilitated nearly 3,000 deals across 49 countries, totaling over $120 billion, according to information provided on the initiative's website.
“The second Trump administration has the opportunity to shape US foreign policy for decades by outlining a vision for a strategic economic partnership with Africa. This would acknowledge Africa’s growing significance as a global economic partner, particularly with implementing the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. It would also help level the playing field for US companies competing against their European and Asian counterparts,” said Laird Treiber, a senior associate in the Africa Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
When President Obama left the White House eight years ago, he collaborated with the African Union to revise United Nations policies regarding funding for peacekeepers, aiming to establish a firm financial basis for African missions. The AU Commission worked alongside the UN and various multilateral organisations to develop an “African peace and security architecture”, which aimed at proactive diplomacy to prevent potential conflicts and coordinated mediation efforts in peacekeeping operations, all grounded in the norms and principles outlined in the UN Charter and the AU Constitutive Act.
However, initiatives for more robust peacekeeping disappeared with the transition to Trump’s first administration. Since then, no new UN or AU peacekeeping missions have been authorised, while several existing missions have been closed or scaled down.
