Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's plan to make his former boss, President William Ruto , a one-term president on the back of the vote-rich Mt Kenya region faces nine key fault lines that could make or break his bid.
Political pundits Weekly Review spoke to highlighted baggage—both personal and beyond his control—that may hamper his bid to rally the opposition for a joint candidate to face President Ruto in the 2027 General Election.
Mr Gachagua is seen as a man with a personal vendetta against President Ruto following his impeachment in October 2024, which triggers two further problems: the fightback within government and from the president himself, and the baggage of the impeachment, including barring him from holding any public office unless a court clears him.
The former deputy president also faces the challenge of the retired President Uhuru Kenyatta factor in Mt Kenya, the risk that his attempts to push an almost cult-like following in the region could backfire, and the disadvantage of relying on political greenhorns to push his message.
Then there is the ‘truthful man’s' own demeanour: he is seen as someone who talks too much, with political pundits arguing that he often exposes himself to his enemies too early or too quickly, risking voter apathy.
Calvine Odhiambo of the Bunge la Mwananchi says Mr Gachagua has failed to conceal his personal vendetta against President Ruto, making him appear more driven by revenge than by a desire to liberate Kenya. "Listening to Mr Gachagua give his directions to his community on 9 February 2025, it was hard to differentiate between his love for Kenya and his thirst for revenge in his speech," Mr Odhiambo said.
People’s Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua (center) with opposition leaders (from left) Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Party), Dorothy Semu (ACT Wazalendo party) and Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua during PLP's launch in Nairobi on February 27, 2025.
Photo credit: Boniface Bogita | Nation Media Group
He noted that in over three hours of speech at the rebranding of Martha Karua’s Narc Kenya to the People’s Liberation Party , Mr Gachagua's focus was solely on President Ruto.
"Truth be told, Gachagua has failed to position himself as a man working to rescue the country from bad governance… Instead, he comes across as a man driven by the need to avenge his impeachment last October, which he blames on the President," he added.
Mr Odhiambo further argues that should the urgency to remove President Ruto from power diminish, Mr Gachagua will struggle to redefine his political agenda.
"This is high-stakes politics, my friend. Sometimes, those in its combat will throw all caution to the wind and resort to even reckless strategies to safeguard their collective interests," says Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology lecturer Mr Charles Mwangi.
Other counter-strategies by the incumbent are expected to include sponsoring vote divisions in Mt Kenya to complicate Mr Gachagua's ambitions.
“This appears to be the norm, where Mr Gachagua might find himself fighting State-sponsored presidential candidates in every county in Mt Kenya, with the aim of neutralising his numerical advantage," Mr Mwangi says.
Advocate of the High Court Kariuki Mwangi warns that Mr Gachagua is trivialising the impeachment issue, which is still before the courts.
"He is a man who risks being barred from holding public office for the next decade, yet he continues to dismiss the matter as insignificant," Mr Mwangi argues.
In a recent interview with Ukambani media houses, Mr Gachagua stated, "My impeachment case has nothing to do with my plans. It is neither here nor there and does not affect my focus on assembling a serious movement ahead of 2027."
Mr Mwangi believes Mr Gachagua has yet to fully grasp the workings of the justice system in the country.
President William Ruto addresses residents of Mlango Kubwa in Nairobi on March 11, 2025.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
"He appears oblivious to the signs of the times. None other than Supreme Court Judge Isaac Lenaola has questioned the conduct of some justice system departments during the handling of his impeachment case," he remarked.
Mr Gachagua's legal battle was plagued by a series of coincidental irregularities, including an IT system shutdown, prompting Justice Lenaola to publicly express doubt over whether it was deliberate.
"Those who followed the Riggy G saga will recall that at some point, the judiciary's online filing system went down. I want you to carry this question into 2027: Why did that online platform collapse? Why did the firewalls that were in place before 2022 suddenly become vulnerable? Imagine what could happen in 2027. I will say no more," Justice Lenaola recently stated.
These judicial dynamics are said to be among the factors Mr Gachagua is ignoring in his confidence that the ongoing cases are inconsequential.
Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni fears that Mr Gachagua is pursuing "lone shepherd politics" in driving forward his 2027 agenda.
Mr Kioni believes Mr Gachagua must unite all like-minded stakeholders in Mt Kenya who share the aspiration of removing President Ruto from power.
"We are many in this cause. Mt Kenya is unanimously against Ruto’s rule. But this cannot be achieved through lone-ranger politics. We have key figures like former President Uhuru Kenyatta, various pressure groups, elected leaders, and aspirants. We need a collective effort, not solitary politics," Mr Kioni said.
What reinforces the perception of Mr Gachagua as a lone-ranger is his repeated insistence that he alone controls the 2027 vote switch in Mt Kenya.
"When President Ruto impeached me, he thought I would be forgotten in two weeks. He thought he could pick a new Deputy President and take over Mt Kenya. But I left his government with all my people, and I will direct their votes in 2027," Mr Gachagua declared on February 9.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri believes Mr Gachagua is fixated on a siege mentality in the Mt Kenya region, attempting to impose candidates.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri during the interview with the Nation at his office in Nairobi.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
"He has been going around Mt Kenya and on media platforms branding those of us who do not submit to him as traitors and sellouts who deserve to be voted out in 2027. He forgets that no politician is so unpopular as to have no loyal supporters. All loyalists combined form a force. He needs all the numbers he can get for his cause," Mr Kiunjuri said.
“Gachagua does not represent any of our forefathers’ aspirations of battling poverty, disease, and illiteracy… He is only chanting slogans about a one-term presidency, traitors, Mt Kenya, and himself."
Mr Kiunjuri further argues that Mr Gachagua is using inexperienced politicians to execute the complex project of leading a political revolution.
He claims Mr Gachagua is exhibiting a "capture mentality" by surrounding himself with inexperienced individuals who cannot challenge him, enabling him to monopolise the Mt Kenya voting bloc.
Mbeere South MP Geoffrey Ruku accuses Mr Gachagua of urging Mt Kenya voters to abandon development and focus solely on politics, even rejecting government services.
"This is a man who risks becoming a driver of poverty by discouraging government projects in our region, despite us being taxpayers, just to fuel his 2027 agenda," Mr Ruku said.
Political scientist John Okumu argues that, as politics is a numbers game, Mr Gachagua risks self-sabotage with his sustained attacks on the government.
"Gachagua might end up making Mt Kenya voters disillusioned with government, increasing voter apathy in the region. A low turnout could complicate his efforts to mobilise support for his political plan," Mr Okumu said.
Democratic Alliance youth leader Ms Gladys Njoroge cautioned Mr Gachagua to exercise caution in his public remarks, as he is not above the law.
"Gachagua appears overwhelmed by the celebrity status that Mt Kenya opposition politics has accorded him. He is getting carried away and making reckless statements. The recent warning from the National Cohesion and Integration Commission should serve as a wake-up call," Ms Njoroge said.
