Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has rolled out a political scheme designed to create siege mentality in the populous Mt Kenya region even as he targets President William Ruto’s allies for an onslaught.
The Nation has established that Mr Gachagua’s camp is already working on a plan to instigate multiple by-elections in the region by seeking to have some of President Ruto’s allies recalled by the voters once the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is reconstituted.
The former second-in command has also publicly asked his allies to resign and seek fresh mandate in his yet-to-be-named new party.
In the scheme of things, Mr Gachagua seeks to create a platform for a direct faceoff with President Ruto that could serve as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 General Elections. He indicated that about 139 Members of County Assembly (MCAs) are ready to resign even as he asked for MPs and Senators to also consider resigning.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
Mr Gachagua has also been fanning anti-Ruto sentiments in the region by accusing the administration of unfairly targeting Mt Kenya despite forming the major voting plank that swept Dr Ruto to power in 2022.
He recently warned the President against ‘plotting’ for the removal from office of Chief Justice Martha Koome.
"She is being fought because she has refused to be a 'yes sir' person. If you chase our Martha Koome, don't set foot in Meru. You chased Rigathi Gachagua and the Mt Kenya people were silent, you thought they were cowards," claimed Mr Gachagua.
"We are telling you, if you dare plan to chase Martha Koome, stay in Nairobi and do not step in Meru again,” he added.
“You are advised not to engage in utterances that amount to propaganda for war, incitement to violence, hate speech or advocacy of hatred based on discrimination. Our concern as a commission is that such utterances could stir feelings of animosity between communities which is not good for Kenya,” NCIC Chairperson Samuel Kobia said in a February 27 letter to Mr Gachagua.
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru alias Mejjadonk, a close ally of Mr Gachagua, disclosed that they are targeting to recall four MPs and a Senator.
He told the Nation that signatures required to recall an MP have been collected in some of the areas. Mathira constituency represented by Eric Wamumbi is one of the constituencies targeted for a by-election.
“We are ready with signatures for some of the constituencies. Even those MPs are aware that the signatures to have them recalled have been collected. What is holding us back is the absence of IEBC, once it is reconstituted, we will proceed with the plan,” said Mr Gathiru.
He said that they already have a registered political party to take on Dr Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in Mt Kenya.
“We are just waiting for the launch. Otherwise everything is in place, including interim party officials,” said the MP.
The law provides that the electorate in a county or constituency may recall their member of Parliament before the end of the term of the relevant House of Parliament on specific grounds.
A member of Parliament may be recalled where the member is found, after due process of the law, to have violated the provisions of Chapter Six of the Constitution; to have mismanaged public resources and is convicted of an offence under this Act.
However the law stipulates that a recall shall only be initiated 24 months after the election of the MP and not later than 12months immediately preceding the next general election.
Mr Gachagua in an interview with KTN last week indicated that about 139 Members of County Assembly had already indicated their willingness to resign from UDA to seek a fresh mandate.
He said the region had since become hostile towards President Ruto’s UDA, making it uneatable for the leaders to continue serving on the ticket.
“We decided that we want to wait for IEBC to be constituted then we launch our party. We will have several by-elections. As of today, we have 139 MCAs who want to resign from UDA and go for by-elections. We are going to force a little general election after IEBC is constituted because our people do not want to live a lie. Mt Kenya residents are honest people, they are people of integrity, and they don’t know how to pretend,” said Mr Gachagua.
“I am encouraging my MCAs, MPs, and Senators the ones who make that very brave decision because that is very courageous to leave a seat you have been elected and go back to the people, I want to assure them the way I am listening to our people, any leader who makes that decision will be re-elected with a very serious majority and they will be heroes of our people and their politics will prosper for decades to come,” he added.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua addresses journalists at his Wamunyoro home in Nyeri County on December 27, 2024.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
But analysts have described the move as a major political gamble that could also backfire on Mr Gachagua as some of his allies could opt to abandon him in the event they are pushed against their wish to resign.
Also, resigning from an elective seat to face the electorate has a potential of having some of the elected leaders lose their seats barely two and half years after securing their five-year terms.
Such an election would also mean that leaders dig deep into their pockets to finance the campaigns when some were yet to recover from the 2022 expenses.
US-based university lecturer and political analyst, Prof David Monda, describes the move as a major political gamble that could backfire on Mr Gachagua.
“It is a major gamble. A risk because his allies could abandon him for safer and more certain political options if Gachagua demands they seek fresh mandates. A risk for him also because Gachagua could be left with allies who lose grassroots elections and then demand political favors in the form of soft landings. That is to say, losing allies demanding potential political appointments or material compensation for their loyalty,” says Prof Monda.
“It also comes with significant potential political reward. As we learned from Ms. Kamala Harris' disastrous run for president in 2024, earning the ticket to run for political office from the electorate is very important,” he adds.
Such by-elections would also mean that the leaders would face off with candidates from other political parties in a country where about three out of five MPs are voted out in every election.
In the August 2022 polls, the electorate sent home 211 members of the National Assembly and the Senate. In the National Assembly, 146 legislators who represented constituencies were sent packing while 34 of the 47 woman representatives were shown the door. The voters dismissed 31 senators out of the 47 elected lawmakers.
The trend is no different in 2017 where at least 166 out of 290 members of the National Assembly lost their positions after being floored by their opponents.
This means three out of every five MPs or 60 per cent who served in the 11th Parliament were voted out. Only 119 out of 290 MPS were re-elected during the 2017 elections. There was equally high turnover in the senatorial race, with only 14 out of the 35 senators making a comeback. Twelve out of the 47 elected Senators decided to run for governor.
Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu, an ally of Mr Gachagua, said there is such a plan but explained that not everyone will resign but a select few.
“It is true we are going to provoke a by-election but we have not decided who and when. So I would not want the people of Murang’a for now to think I am one of those who will resign because I don’t think this is the right time,” said Mr Nyutu.
The senator said the Mr Gachagua team has all senators from Mt Kenya West except for Nyeri’s Wahome Wamatinga, in addition to Laikipia and Kajiado senators.
He added that they also have a majority of Members of National Assembly in all the larger Mt Kenya counties except for Nyeri where many are still fence sitters.
A study by governance experts Karuti Kanyinga and Tom Mboya shows that candidates who spent more money have higher chances of winning an election.
The study published in 2021 placed the cost of running for the Senate at Sh35.5 million and Sh22.8 million for Women Rep position. The cost of constituency Member of Parliament is at an average of Sh18.2 million while that of Member of County Assembly is estimated at Sh3.1 million.
Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, an ally of Dr Ruto, dared the MPs to resign as soon as IEBC was reconstituted, saying that UDA would field candidates to face off with them.
Mr Sakaja, who was to face off with Embakasi North James Gakuya for UDA Nairobi branch chairperson, said some of the MPs would lose their seats.
“Let them put their money where their mouths are. We are waiting for them to resign so that we can field candidates to face off with them,” said Mr Sakaja.
“Let them not just issue threats. We will prove to them that UDA has influence, including in Nairobi,” he added.
Jubilee Party of President Uhuru Kenyatta through its Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni also told Nation that the ruling party would consider fielding candidates should the UDA decide to resign. He, however, described the decision as selfish and only meant for political preservation for some individuals.
“If they decide to resign, everybody would be free to field candidates. But I would ask them to look at the bigger picture of preparing for the 2027 elections because forcing by-elections would only hurt the economy of our region,” said Mr Kioni.
