President William Ruto addresses the nation at State House, Nairobi on June 26, 2024.
As if the unprecedented insurrection posed by the Gen Z protests against unpopular taxation proposals is not enough of a headache, President William Ruto faces a brazen internal challenge from increasingly estranged Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. When last Wednesday the President called a press conference at State House to announce a retreat, withdrawal of the contentious Finance Bill and invitation to dialogue, the Deputy President followed up with his own presser clearly designed to steal the thunder from his boss.
Gachagua laid into National Intelligence Service head Noordin Haji, whom he accused of feeding the Ruto with wrong information on the gravity of discontent with the Finance Bill, with the president therefore not able to make the right choices until after youth protests had escalated to invasion of Parliament. The unspoken message, however, was that the president was out of touch with reality, had lost touch with his base, and was vulnerable to misinformation on which he then was not able to analyse critical issues and make the right decisions.
He also indirectly accused the President of going back on his campaign pledge on ceasing the use of security agencies to run political vendetta, pointing to reported abductions of Gen Z protest organisers and alleged attempts to link him and former President Uhuru Kenyatta to the unrest. Gachagua threw down the gauntlet, and Ruto will sooner or later have to pick it up.
Youth protests
In the meantime, the President must manage the fallout from the ferocious youth protests that have clearly shaken his administration to the core, while also applying the fixes needed to ensure that the economy doesn’t grind to a halt following his retreat on the Finance Bill. It was a contrite Ruto who last Wednesday appeared on national television to announce withdrawal of contentious Finance Bill and pledge to consider the pleas of youthful protesters.
His appearance was in stark contrast to the combative President who only the previous day from the same State House stage had likened the dissent to treason. Clearly something had changed overnight to make the President abandon his hardline stance and withdraw the unpopular taxation proposals in their entirety. Ruto’s climb-down was perhaps only comparable to the momentous about-turn witnessed from President Daniel arap Moi towards the end of 1991, in abandoning months of obduracy and giving in to citizen demands for an end to the one-party state and transition to multi-party democracy.
Like Moi nearly 33 years ago, Ruto showed that when faced with an existential crisis, he can put ego and pride aside and do what is necessary to avoid a catastrophe. That often means ignoring the advice and exhortations of an inner circle of rabid hardliners and reaching out to more sober and rational voices who have no self-interests to protect. While such a turnaround may often be interpreted as surrender or capitulation, it can also be seen as wise and statesmanlike, and the example of a leader who at critical moments will put the interests of the nation above self.
Even if just dictated by self-survival, it could well be one of the defining moments of Ruto’s young presidency. It came just a day after dramatic events never before witnessed in Kenya’s political history when a group of youthful protesters breached a tough police blockade, defying tear gas, water cannons and live bullets to storm into the hallowed precincts of Parliament Buildings.
It was an epic case of the revolution being televised live as the rapturous mob ran into the buildings, trashing furniture and fittings in the corridors and lounges, helping themselves to food in the cafeteria and some even breaking into the Senate Chamber and duly making videos of themselves in mock addresses to “Mr Speaker”. Shortly afterwards, one young man was seen on live TV parading on adjacent streets what appeared to be the 4.5-foot-long, 12kg gold and ivory mace, the symbol parliamentary authority.
The storming of Parliament came just shortly after the National Assembly had defied the growing wave of public protests and the clamour brewing outside to pass the 2024-2025 Finance Bill, whose taxation proposals had ignited unprecedented opposition. Members of Parliament were rushed out in a hurry as the barricades were breached in a stunning development just one week after the #OccupyParliament/#RejectFinanceBill protests were launched in the streets of Nairobi and other major towns. It looked like the campaign had escalated into #ParliamentHasFallen, an event that could be likened to a successful insurrection overthrowing the Legislative arm of government, and then turning sights on the Executive.
In fact, as the street demonstrations gathered momentum in the first few days with the police clearly at sea on how to deal with the new breed of peaceful protests driven by sophisticated, tech-savvy middle and upper class Gen Z crowd, emergence of #OccupyStateHouse, #RutoMustGo and #ZakayoAshuke (Zakayo Climb Down) hashtags indicated that objectives were escalating from just rejection of the Finance Bill, to ejection of the Ruto government. It looked like a hopelessly fanciful, naïve and even foolish aim, but the successful invasion of Parliament against all odds showed that the unthinkable might just be possible. It was panic stations as President Ruto that Tuesday helicoptered onto the State House grounds from a meeting in Naivasha where he had hosted an African institutional reform meeting.
That evening he called a brief announce where the key take-way was his stated determination to apply whatever forcers at his command to conquer what he described as dangerous criminals who’d desecrated Parliament, an institution of Kenyan democracy, in action that could only be considered treasonous. He promised swift and effective punishment for the perpetrators, raising the spectre of youthful organisers of the protests being hailed before the courts to face charges of treason, one of the most serious offenses in the Penal Code attracting the death penalty.
There hasn’t been a treason trial in Kenya since Hezekiah Ochuka and Pancras Oteyo, leaders of the abortive 1982 coup attempt by elements of the Kenya Air Force, were found guilty and sentenced to death. It was also the last time the death sentence by hanging has been carried out in Kenya, with all subsequent convictions commuted to life imprisonment.
As the President was vowing the harsh stance, Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale was publishing a notice in the official Kenya Gazette authorising deployment of the Kenya Defence Forces to support the National Police Service to restore law and order in all areas affected by the tax protests.
In breaching Parliament, the youthful protesters had thrown down the gauntlet, and Ruto had picked it up. His equating the protests to treason and then bringing in the military was the clearest indicator that the protests were being treated as a serious insurrection designed to bring down the government, rather than mere political disturbances.
The panic evident was fuelled by boisterous indications from protesters that their ultimate aim was to topple the regime rather than just have the Finance Bill rejected. A big problem, however, was that nobody in government could put a finger on the real motivation and driving force behind the protests.
Their reference point to protest politics dating back decades has always been veteran opposition chief Raila Odinga. He has always been the one to tackle, either by putting security agents on him, or negotiating a political truce. Indeed, on the wake of the disputed 2022 elections Raila had embarked a series of protests, which were only stilled when he negotiated a ceasefire with Ruto, which included the establishment of a National Dialogue Committee, whose report is before Parliament.
Raila, now approaching 80, then signaled intention to step away from local politics by securing Ruto’s bid in his quest for the African Union Commission chairmanship. The remaining leaders in Raila’s ODM party and the wider Azimio la Umoja/One Kenya coalition have been threatening to resume street protests if their expectations on the National Dialogue were not met or if objectionable taxes in the Finance Bill were not removed. However, the likes of Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua clearly did not have capacity to call out the crowds.
A large group of civil society activists under the Kenya Bora Tuitakayo banner fronted by veteran campaigner Cyprian Nyamwayu had also been for a considerable period plotting alternatives to the political status quo, but barely going beyond WhatsApp group chatter. It was into that vacuum that entered a bunch of youthful activists, the most prominent being seasoned social justice campaigner Boniface Mwangi. In lightning quick time, aggressive social media sensitisation and mobilisation had spawned massive protest movement of comprised of young Kenyans who for the most part had never been involved in protest politics, but now ready and eager to play a role. Not the government, not the opposition, not the mainstream civil society, not the media was prepared for what happened next.
The march from social media to the streets presented Ruto with a giant headache. He could not comprehend that such a movement could grow so swiftly without a hidden hand providing massive resources. When not dismissive and contemptuous like National Assembly leader Kimani Ichung’wa, Ruto underlings such as government spokesman Isaac Mwaura and UDA Secretary-General Cleophas Malala spun wild and outrageous suggesting the movement was being funded by forces as disparate as the American and Russian governments.
Human rights struggle
In the absence of perpetual bogeyman Raila, they looked for scapegoats in unnamed corporate players unhappy with taxes on imported goods, and even, as is now being suggested, former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto’s increasingly estranged Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. After some reflection overnight following his first statement, it was apparent Ruto had time to calm down, reflect and look for solutions not based on wild allegations or knee-jerk reactions to imaginary enemies. He not only conceded that there were serious and genuine issues with the Finance Bill and offered to withdraw it, but also held out the hand for dialogue incorporating those selfsame activists he had accused of treason.
The problem, however, is that he does not know who to negotiate with. As acknowledged by Gachagua, the Gen Z rebellion is faceless and leaderless. It has no known secretariat, steering committee or command post. It can best be described as a hydra-headed monster, composed of various groupings operating independently, but brought together by shared antipathy to the Finance Bill.
It is also evident that the Finance Bill is not the only issue, but the trigger to a much wider range of issues around the economy, unemployment and unfulfilled promises of the Hustler Nation and Bottom Up campaign platforms. When Ruto held his press conference last Wednesday, a group of religious leaders, including retired Presbyterian clergymen Timothy Njoya, a veteran of democracy and human rights struggle, were already at State House for consultations. It is evident that he intends to make the religious fraternity key to establishment of the promised multi-sectoral dialogue, which will also bring in business lobby groups, civil society, professional associations. the political opposition and, most crucially, the youth movements whose revolt unseen in Kenya history forced him to the table.
However, there will be sceptism on how genuine the invite to dialogue is. Even after the major climb-down, scattered protests were still seen the following day in Nairobi despite military patrols, and also other towns where various groups insisted #RutoMustGo remained their primary objective.
There are also bound to be tussles over composition of the dialogue. On church representation, for instance, the Ruto State House has shifted from the mainstream bodies such as the Catholic Church and protestant groupings such as the Anglican, Presbyterian, Methodist, Baptist and others under aegis of the National Council of Churches of Kenya. It has instead embraced the evangelical movements, including the controversial ‘Prosperity Gospel’ churches who enjoy State House patronage, and claim to comprise the majority while most likely toeing the government line.
Most controversial could be who represents the youth. At his press conference last Wednesday Gachagua made the point of asking the Gen Z’s to come together and nominate their own representatives despite not having a formal organisation. He cautioned against young people at State House taking it upon themselves to select the youth reps, a clear reference to the group around controversial digital media strategist and blogger Dennis Itumbi, who is often seen as Ruto’s trusted link to youth. While some of those directly involved in the Gen Z protests might be invited, chances are they could be out-numbered by youth representatives from across the country picked directly by State House and toeing the party line.
Then there is Gachagua. Less than two years into the Kenya Kwanza government, the Deputy President came out with sensational claims that illustrate the gulf in the presidency. In a normal administration, his misgivings on the NIS Director-General Noordin Haji would have been raised within the Cabinet, or directly with the president.
That he chose to go public was very telling, as were his appeals to the president on compensation for victims of the Gen Z protests, and house demolitions on the banks of Nairobi River and riparian lands, decision on which he participated but now seems to disowning and indirectly laying blame at his boss.
Gachagua has been trying hard to fill the vacuum in Mt Kenya leadership since the exit of Uhuru, and it might seem Gen Z revolt presented him with the perfect opportunity to emerge as spokesman of a populous and disenchanted constituency. Like Ruto who as Deputy President who openly rebelled against President Kenyatta in the second term of the Jubilee administration knowing he cannot be sacked, Gachagua is doing the same but not even halfway through the first term.
He has obviously decided there can be no longer playing the meek, humble deputy. He wants to go toe-to-toe with Ruto now, fully aware that there is very little likelihood of his earning the Running Mate slot come 2027. In that regard one can only assume that Riggy G is serving out his notice in UDA and the Kenya Kwanza alliance. And having been DP, he can only look upwards to his own presidential bid at the next elections.
If he captures the hearts and minds of the populous Mt Kenya vote, he will be a force to contend with. However, chances are that Ruto will counter by tapping another Mt Kenya figure for running mate, with Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro the most open contender.
But there is also Martha Karua, Raila’s running mate at the last elections, who was key to the Limuru III Conference that enunciated Mt Kenya grievances, and is also examining a presidential bid that could possibly be backed by Uhuru. However, that develops, there is no doubt that a strong Mr Kenya presidential candidate could steal a critical voting bloc that secures Ruto’s 2022 victory. Karua’s run would, however, lead to breakup of Azimio, where Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is working on his own presidential bid, teaming up with former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa as his deputy.
