Then deputy president Rigathi Gachagua greets Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru on arrival at Our Lady of Sorrows Baricho Catholic Church for the celebrations of 100 years of Faith and Evangelisation for the Church.
Kirinyaga Governor Ann Waiguru’s remarks early last week — when she apologised and distanced herself from the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua — captured perfectly the dilemma facing many politicians from the Mt Kenya region who are loyal to President William Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza administration.
With elections approaching, they are also painfully conscious that standing with the president could also be a self-inflicted kiss of death in a region where the ground has inexorably shifted from a near-unanimous vote in his favour at the last elections in 2022, to outright rejection leading to 2027.
At a function in Mwea last Monday, Ms Waiguru, who has been one of President Ruto’s reliable supporters in Mt Kenya, raised eyebrows by publicly acknowledging that Mr Gachagua’s impeachment in October 2024 had poisoned the ground. She also distanced herself from the impeachment, pointing out that it is the preserve of Parliament, but nevertheless felt constrained to offer an apology for a move she said had left the people pained and angry.
Ms Waiguru did not go to the extent of saying that she would ditch Kenya Kwanza; in fact going on to restate her conviction that the people should still back the present administration.
Her remarks, with a video from the occasion going viral on social media, were still taken as very significant, especially in an environment where two of her neighbouring governors, Kimani Wamatangi of Kiambu and Irungu Kang’ata of Murang’a, recently announced they would be ditching UDA come the 2027 elections.
Alternative political options
Serving out her second and final term as Kirinyaga governor, Ms Waiguru will not defend her seat at the next elections, but will also obviously be weighing alternative political options.
Two days after the Mwea function, the governor was at another function in Nyeri, where she seemed to modify her stance by urging support for President Ruto’s re-election bid. She used the analogy that former President Uhuru Kenyatta had himself campaigned for a second term on the promise that his base would also back Ruto, his then deputy, for two terms, saying that remains a debt to be repaid.
Waiguru may well have felt a need to reassure the party leadership of her loyalty, given the jitters caused by her earlier comments.
In an exclusive interview with The Weekly Review, Waiguru explained her position amid the changing dynamics, but reiterated her continuing support for the president despite a hostile environment in Mt Kenya. She expressed cautious confidence that there was still time to turn things around and regain the support that appears to be fast waning.
Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru.
There is still no doubt, however, that Ruto loyalists in Mt Kenya are at a crossroads as Gachagua’s momentum gains ground. His new political vehicle, DCP, has grown in leaps and bounds to assume primacy that has relegated all other opposition outfits, including Uhuru’s Jubilee Party, to the periphery. It also seriously threatens the primacy enjoyed by Ruto’s UDA, which boasts the majority of elected leaders.
The latest opinion poll by TIFA released last Thursday showed that beyond the Mt Kenya bedrock, Gachagua’s party now stands tall on the national stage, running neck-and-neck with UDA and its partner in the broad-based government arrangement, late former opposition chieftain Raila Odinga’s ODM.
Every opportunity he gets, Gachagua has been warning UDA elected leaders in Mt Kenya to make up their minds and cross over to his side before it is too late.
Prior to the recent statements by Waiguru, all eyes had been on two of the most admired leaders from the region, Murang’a Governor Kang’ata and another politician from the same county, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro. The two, plus Waiguru, made up a trio of politicians from the Mt Kenya region, besides Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, who were widely tipped for higher office as it became apparent that Ruto was looking to reshape his power structure about one year after assuming office in 2022.
When it became clear that Gachagua was falling out of favour even before the GenZ revolt of June 2024, they were closely watched as potential replacements.
Nyoro was openly moving to position himself as a Mt Kenya alternative, attracting Gachagua’s wrath, while Kang’ata, more subtly behind the scenes, was also making his own moves to catch Ruto’s eye.
When Ruto finally moved to impeach Gachagua, however, Nyoro was a notable no-show at the National Assembly proceedings before the matter was escalated to the Senate. His absence at such a crucial vote was not taken lightly by Ruto's allies, who immediately put him on their ‘watch list’ of suspect figures.
He took some flak, but largely kept his silence, neither joining the Gachagua bandwagon nor publicly indicating where his sympathies lay. In a conversation with The Weekly Review sometime after the impeachment, Nyoro conceded that the mood in Mt Kenya had swung firmly against the Ruto administration, and by default against the loud foot soldiers carrying the Kenya Kwanza banner. He, however, would not delve into likely party preferences heading to 2027.
Kang’ata, at around the same time, was also facing scrutiny. He was not rebelling against the party line, but neither was he joining the roadshows led by figures such as Kindiki, National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wa, Cabinet secretaries and a large cast of MPs traversing the region taking war to Gachagua forces.
In his public statements, and also in his weekly opinion piece in the Nation, Kang’ata put on display a carefully cultivated image of priority on governance issues rather than partisan politics, a stance which to some of the party faithful, was suspect.
Waiguru, though making clear her loyalty to Ruto, was measured in her public comments, avoiding insults and the extreme comments which were expected of those resisting Gachagua’s growing presence. This did not go down well with some of her colleagues.
As time went on, Nyoro abandoned his reticence to become an outspoken critic of the Ruto government, especially in matters of corruption and the state of the economy. His exit from UDA is now all but assured, but he has yet to indicate whether he will join the Gachagua wave or seek an alternative ticket on which to defend his seat.
Ironically, as Gachagua entrenched himself as kingpin of Mt Kenya politics—but after impeachment, ineligible to vie for president—Waiguru, Kang’ata and Nyoro were being whispered about as likely contenders for President Ruto’s sponsorship of a ‘Manchurian Candidate’.
The idea was that if Ruto lost a large chunk of the Mt Kenya vote that earned him nearly 50 per cent of his of 2022 total, he would try to shift those numbers to an alternative candidate from the region rather than it going to whoever Gachagua directed it to. That could be effective if the region did not have a serious candidate of its own, as the former DP was indicating that he would throw his weight behind Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
A planted spoiler is still an option actively being discussed by Ruto’s strategists.
If Kenya Kwanza was already giving up on Mt Kenya, the TIFA opinion poll was further cause for worry. Ruto campaign number crunchers have been projecting that securing at least 30 per cent of the populous regions' vote, added to the numbers coming in with absorption of the late Raila’s ODM base, which in 2022 was just short of the national 50 per cent mark, would secure comfortable re-election.
But being reduced to just nine per cent of the Mt Kenya vote might be a veritable disaster. This is compounded by the split in ODM, where the rebel faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Ugenya Governor James Orengo was shown to command a dominant 73 per cent support from party faithful, compared to just 24 per cent for the official pro-Ruto party leadership under Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga.
On the presidential ratings, Ruto leads the pack with 24 per cent support, ahead of Kalonzo with 19 per cent, former Interior CS Fred Matiangi for the Jubilee party with 14 per cent, newcomer Sifuna with 10 percent and Gachagua with nine per cent.
That lead for Ruto is reduced to nothing when it is taken into consideration that all others are in the opposition and pledging to ultimately unite behind one flag bearer. If that vote is combined, it comes to a handsome 76 per cent.
A key lesson from the poll is Sifuna’s rise from zero, his command of the ODM base despite the Oburu camp being the recognised leadership, and also how he has leapfrogged established Western Kenya leaders, namely Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula, who may now be hard-pressed to deliver the populous region for Ruto.
The poll also shows the death of Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee in Mt Kenya, confirming that Gachagua commands the hearts and minds and likely dashes Kenya Kwanza dreams for a fratricidal power contest in the region.
Gachagua’s rise in Mt Kenya has been built up against playing up grievances on alleged marginalisation, mistreatment and betrayal of the region since his impeachment.
The counter-narrative is that Mt Kenya remains well-represented in government and is still getting its share of development resources.
Indeed, it is a fact that in addition to DP Kindiki, Mt Kenya has a disproportionate eight of the 22 cabinet secretaries, including Geoffrey Ruku (Public Service), Rebecca Miano (Tourism), Alice Wahome (Lands) and Eric Muuga (Water). Others are Mutahi Kagwe (Agriculture), William Kabogo (ICT) and Lee Kinyanjui (Trade).
The latter three, incidentally, were appointed as President Ruto sought to mend fences in the region by demonstrating a truce with Uhuru.
Following a well-choreographed photo-op when he paid a visit to the home of his predecessor, Ruto’s communications team planted stories in the media suggesting that the three were nominated by Uhuru in much the same way Raila had forwarded five ‘experts’ from ODM to join the cabinet as part of the broad-based government pact. The narrative turned out quite inaccurate as neither of the three Mt Kenya politicians was even a member of Jubilee.
Central Bank of Kenya Governor Kamau Thugge.
Other notable Mt Kenya figures in positions of influence include Secretary to Cabinet Mercy Wanjau, Central Bank Governor Kamau Thugge, Kenya Defense Forces commander, General Charles Kahariri, Inspector-General of Police Douglas Kanja and Chief Justice Martha Koome.
The Mt Kenya region also enjoys a healthy proportion of about 14 of the 38 or so Principal Secretaries, as well as many other top officers in the public service, state corporations and statutory bodies.
Secretary to the Cabinet Mercy Wanjau.
The Cabinet secretaries are already being trotted out to show the flag in Mt Kenya, and many other top public servants will be deployed on the campaign trail in the coming months.
Whether that succeeds in halting the Gachagua steamroller and halting the exodus to opposition remains to be seen. And part of the problem will be that reconciliatory messaging is usually instantly demolished from within the Ruto camp itself by UDA politicians openly playing up violent anti-Mt Kenya rhetoric.
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