President William Ruto appears to have embarked on a strategic campaign to take the Nyanza and Western Kenya voting blocs as he seeks political stability and diversity of his vote basket.
While he has significantly reduced his visits to Mount Kenya — a key plank in his 2022 election — after falling out with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua , he has more than doubled his trips to the western part of the country and shows no signs of slowing down.
In a bid to consolidate votes, he was in the region in the last days of December 2024, where he celebrated New Year in Kisii and spent the following day there. He made his New Year address from Kisii State Lodge, in a part of Nyanza region whose leaders have been complaining of being sidelined.
President William Ruto with First Lady Mama Rachel Ruto on New Year's day at Kisii State Lodge in Kisii County on December 31, 2024.
Photo credit: PCS
Last week, the President made an impromptu visit to Homa Bay County, taking many by surprise, including former Prime Minister Raila Odinga who admitted that he was not aware that the President would be in the devolved unit. The President was hosted by Governor Gladys Wanga.
President Ruto was in Homa Bay in February last year and visited again when he toured the four Nyanza counties months later.
On January 2, he attended the Piny Luo cultural festival in Siaya, where he was accompanied by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and hosted by Mr Odinga — a rare meeting of the trio.
He later travelled to the Mumias Sugar Sports Complex to attend the Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa's cup final.
President William Ruto shares a light moment with Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka when they attended the Governor's Cup Final at Mumias Sports Complex, Kakamega County on January 1, 2025.
Photo credit: Pool
From bitter rivals hurling epithets at each other to win voters in 2022, to now friends sharing power in the form of a broad-based government, President Ruto and Mr Odinga continue to confound many as to what their endgame is.
When Mr Odinga handed over some of his closest allies as “experts” to help run the Kenya Kwanza government, many questioned the thinking behind it and whether it was a political trap for both of them.
However, pundits and politicians who spoke to the Weekly Review believe that the two struck a deal to benefit each other.
This includes Dr Ruto ensuring that his former rival is elected chairperson of the African Union Commission, whose term extends beyond 2027, while Mr Odinga would tone down his criticism of the government and “hand over” his supporters to the President to help him win a second term.
From allowing his troops to openly rally support for Mr Odinga, appointing more people from the opposition to the government, making many tours to Mr Odinga’s strongholds and reviving and commissioning major projects in the western region, President Ruto is leaving nothing to chance as he seeks to woo the region ahead of the 2027 polls.
Some believe he is taking a risk by focusing more on that side of the country as a Plan B, having lost much ground in the Mount Kenya region.
But other political players, including Mr Gachagua and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka appear to have noticed the shift and have joined the fray.
As Dr Ruto was in Mumias, Mr Musyoka, his DAP-K counterpart Eugene Wamalwa, former Kiambu Governor Ferdinand Waititu and Matungulu MP Stephen Mutinda were in neighbouring Mumias East sub-county attending the Peter Kalerwa (PK) Salasya tournament finals. They had no kind words for the President, insisting that he should not be re-elected.
“I urge Kenyans, especially the young generation, to come out and vote in large numbers to make it difficult for Ruto to steal victory,” said Mr Wamalwa.
Days earlier, Mr Gachagua had attended a football tournament in Kakamega sponsored by his key ally in the region, former UDA Secretary-General Cleophas Malala.
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) data from the last election, the Western region counties of Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma and Busia had a cumulative 2,217,948 registered voters.
The region already has two key allies of President Ruto—Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula — and the additional efforts are meant to consolidate support.
President William Ruto, Speaker of the National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka arrive for the burial ceremony of Wetang’ula mother at Mukhweya village in Bungoma County on January 3, 2025.
Photo credit: Isaac Wale | Nation Media Group
Mr Odinga’s traditional Nyanza base of Kisumu, Migori, Homa Bay and Siaya had at least 2,160,439 registered voters in the last election.
Kisii and Nyamira had 637,010 and 323,283 registered voters, respectively.
Given Dr Ruto’s narrow win against Mr Odinga in the last election and the struggle so far to retain the Mt Kenya vote, consolidating western Kenya appears to be a viable strategy for him.
If he succeeds in ensuring that Mr Odinga is elected chairman of the AUC, he will have eliminated his closest rival and could be rewarded with an automatic succession of the ODM leader’s votes.
This has been hinted at on several occasions by Mr Odinga’s close allies such as Junet Mohamed, the Suna East MP and Minority Leader in the National Assembly, who told the President that all he had to do was hand the continental seat to Mr Odinga and leave the rest to the former Prime Minister’s strongholds and supporters.
Political pundits Dr Obora Okoth, Mark Bichachi and Daniel Orogo said the President’s move is a reaction to his perceived loss of the Mountain, which he has to find a way of compensating for if he has to keep his re-election chances alive.
Conservative projections from the IEBC’s data puts the number of registered voters from the larger Mt Kenya region and its diaspora counties at six million.
“The President is clear: if you want to balance the Central kenya vote, look at western Kenya. If he can get Nyanza, Western and Gusii, he will have achieved a lot in his re-election bid,” said Mr Bichachi.
President William Ruto (left) and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at the Raila Odinga Stadium in Homa Bay County on December 27, 2024.
Photo credit: File | PCS
Mr Bichachi believes that Dr Ruto can either directly inherit Mr Odinga’s supporters or get half of them, but he said it will all depend on the politicians who have always jostled to take over from the former Prime Minister.
“Should Raila win the AUC chairmanship, Dr Ruto will have a better story to tell the people of Nyanza and earn their support,” said Mr Bichachi.
For Mr Orogo, Ruto appears to have miscalculated in appointing Prof Kithure Kindiki as Deputy President to deal with Mr Gachagua.
“The good prof is not confrontational like his predecessor and therefore their hope that he would bring back the Kikuyu vote is becoming elusive. They therefore need to seek new friends,” said Mr Orogo.
The many trips to the western side of the country could also be intended to shop for the next running mate as the Ruto-Kindiki ticket may not be attractive in the next elections, observers say.
According to Mr Orogo, Dr Ruto has simply started campaigning early in western like he did in the Central region immediately after the 2017 General Election.
Then there is the Dr Fred Matiang'i factor, which is fast gaining traction after he initiated plans to boost his 2027 presidential bid.
“The Matiang'i factor in Gusii is slowly gaining traction, and he is becoming a strong contender and possible opposition to Dr Ruto. This explains why Ruto was at Kisii State Lodge for two days to try and contain the former Cabinet Secretary’s rise,” said Mr Orogo.
President William Ruto (right), with President Yoweri Museveni (center) of Uganda and ODM leader Raila Odinga watch a footaball match between Gor Mahia and Uganda’s Kitara Football Club at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Stadium in Siaya County on January 02, 2025.
Photo credit: PCS
He, however, believes that Dr Ruto needs to address the issues of abductions, the economy and the high cost of living that are giving his administration a bad name to win the trust of the people.
Dr Okoth agrees, saying that while the Kikuyu vote is about 30 per cent of the national total, it is not automatic that Dr Ruto will get over 70 per cent.
“The maths may be in his favour, but the current state of affairs, which is the disillusionment of many Kenyans with his government, may not guarantee him the 70 per cent, especially the youth,” Dr Okoth said.
This, he said, could give birth to a third force that could take a huge chunk of Ruto’s votes as voters look to them for solace rather from an oppressive government.
“If Raila loses, Dr Ruto will be in trouble because the ODM leader will go back to his house. And if Uhuru Kenyatta still wants Raila to be president, we could see a partnership between a Kikuyu-dominated party and the western region,” said Dr Okoth.
He added: “Mr Odinga has a way of wreaking havoc when he is inside rather than outside an organisation; it will not be the first time he destroys a house from within and therefore Ruto should not sit pretty and expect support.”
President Ruto is not alone in courting the vote-rich western region. Mr Gachagua is also trying to form alliances with other Azimio la Umoja One Kenya leaders ahead of the next elections. He is also actively campaigning against Dr Ruto, insisting that he should not be allowed to inherit the vote-rich region.
From left: Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, President William Ruto and Mr Raila Odinga in Bondo, Siaya County on January 2, 2025.
Photo credit: PHOTO | PCS
“I am hearing from some people that if Raila manages to go to the AU, he will hand over his supporters to Dr Ruto. If you allow yourselves to be handed over like a relay baton, many will be shocked. There is no need for political mediation with millions of votes, you do not need anyone to join the government of the day,” Mr Gachagua said in an interview with journalists from the western region.
He urged voters in the region to unite to have bargaining power, saying that if they are fragmented, they may not achieve much.
“The problem is that you continue to trust Raila as a mediator who has used you over the years. What you should do is unite, come and negotiate directly on the table. In the Mountain, we are already collecting our over 10 million votes, if you bring yours and we work with other like-minded regions, we will form the next government,” said Mr Gachagua.
He insisted that he does not have to be the one in office and that his support base has not been affected by the impeachment. He said he is ready to support other like-minded leaders.
