Both President William Ruto and his ousted Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua were quick to send congratulatory messages on US President-elect Donald Trump’s resounding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris last Tuesday.
They may, on the surface, both have seemed the routine canned texts pulled out by communications aides and sent out with appropriate names inserted into the blanks after electoral contests anywhere around the world. Closer reading of both messages, however, indicates the deep reflection that went into text which was anything but routine. Ruto and Gachagua crafted their messages to reflect their individual hopes, aspirations and inspirations on the dramatic change of guard in the White House.
The President’s extravagant and seemingly over-the-top reference to Trump’s “visionary, bold and innovative leadership” probably reflected keen awareness of the need to build and maintain a close relationship with the new regime following on the period he had emerged as Washington’s favourite African leader.
Ruto must be aware that the power dynamics will change as Trump might have little time for the special status he was seemingly accorded by the outgoing administration of President Joe Biden. The statement was crafted almost as affirmation that he was not beholden to the Democratic Party, and is more than ready to engage with the new regime he might have more in common with in regard to shared values. Gachagua’s message also pandered to the returning American President, but in terms that reflected personal inspiration from overcoming what might be shared tribulations.
Unceremoniously thrown out
“Congratulations President Donald Trump, for one of the greatest political come-backs of our generation. Your victory is clear proof that resilience and a never-say-die attitude will always Trump obstacles on the path to your destiny. God Bless You. God Bless America”. It is not clear if Trump follows Gachagua on social media, but if he comes across the post he might appreciate that Kenya’s ousted Deputy President was in his choice of words reaching out to a kindred spirit and also making a political point out of his own circumstances.
Gachagua was only recently unceremoniously thrown out office after his impeachment by the National Assembly was upheld by the Senate. A series of legal challenges failed to block his removal, as well as appointment of a successor, Prof Kithure Kindiki . If ongoing court battles seeking to nullify the impeachment fail, a matter likely to go all the way to the Supreme Court, Gachagua will be permanently barred from holding public office, dashing his hopes of running for the presidency in 2027 or seeking any other elective position. His message to Trump celebrated the “greatest political come-back” of a twice-impeached former president who defied the odds to reclaim the White House after one term out in the cold. Trump holds the unique record of being the only American President to have twice been impeached, 2019 and 2021, and yet recovered to reclaim the most powerful office in the world.
Elected in 2016, he was impeached by the House of Representatives in December on two charges, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The formal House inquiry found that he had solicited foreign to aid his 2020 re-election bid, and then obstructed the impeachment hearings by instructing government officials to ignore summonses for documents and testimony. He was however acquitted by the Senate and recovered to serve out his first term.
Trump lost his 2020 re-election bid to Joe Biden, but in January 2021 just a week before his term expired, was impeached for the second term on a charge of incitement to insurrection related to the infamous January 6 attack on the US Capitol by supporters protesting his electoral loss. Again, he was acquitted by the Senate in a vote that went largely along party lines with the Republicans outnumbering the Democrats.
Gachagua, impeached by his own party with broad support across the aisle from opposition leader Raila Odinga ’s ODM troops, did not have the advantage of a House majority to save him. He is now depending on the courts to at least spare him the ignominy of being permanently barred from the political house, and there ease his own Trumpian “political come-backs of our generation” and affirmation that “resilience and a never-say-die attitude will always TRUMP obstacles on the path to your destiny”.
How that pans out remains to be seen. For Ruto, however, relationships with the comeback-king are matters for here and now. Ruto revelled in special attention from President Biden, including the honour of a rare State Visit, recognition as a key non-Nato ally, a strategic security partner in the Horn of Africa and even selection of Kenyan police forces to lead the multinational mission in Haiti.
US Ambassador in Nairobi Meg Whitman, although a registered Republican, also lavished him with attention. She facilitated high-profile engagements with top American corporations and potential investors, helping build linkages that made some describe her Ruto’s ambassador to the US rather than the other way round. But she was also harshly criticised here by the political opposition and activist groups for turning a blind eye to regime excesses, including human rights abuses, return of police killer squads, and rampant corruption.
Trump will most likely appoint his own ambassador in Nairobi, and that will call for a reset. Despite the special relationship with the Biden administration, Ruto might actually welcome some change. While Trump might not care too much about the Haiti adventure, Nato status or ongoing plans to strengthen military cooperation within the region, he comes to office with a resume and background that might create another special relationship.
One of them is his close links with the right-wing American Evangelical groups who will be keen to expand their tentacles in Africa. In Ruto, who has already turned his State House into a redoubt for what some see as Christian extremism, the American evangelicals might be looking at their go-to man. And this might be not just about religion, but critical foreign policy issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Kenya Foreign Policy manual recognises both Israel and Palestinian rights to statehood, and has also called for a ceasefire and end to the carnage in Gaza.
Ruto, however, has occasionally gone off script to condemn supposed Palestinian terrorism and voice unflinching support for Israel. That position might be partly out of his own allegiance to the evangelical faith. Ruto, and President Uhuru Kenyatta before him, often had to endure — in meetings with American presidents, Secretaries of State, Ambassadors and other top officials — unwelcome lectures on the protection of gay rights.
That is likely to change under Trump. Pressure on gay rights might well give way to pressure for the removal of all avenues, even medical reasons, for abortion. Beyond proclamations of faith, Ruto and Trump also have something else in common. Both were elected on politics of grievance, putting together powerful movements united by the goal of taking the war to the establishment. Ruto’s 2022 presidential campaign borrowed almost wholesale some of the 2016 Trump rhetoric and fulminations against the ‘Deep State’.
Ruto came to office threatening retribution against police, prosecutors, courts and other agencies in the justice law and order sector who allegedly hounded him and his political allies. His first order of business was to seize control of the justice machinery and ensure all pending cases against his friends and allies were withdrawn.
Trump will be taking office with numerous criminal and civil cases hanging over his head. He is already a convicted felon just awaiting sentencing on at least one case. Over the past year, he has been battling four simultaneous, two related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, one of mishandling of classified documents after leaving office in 2020 and another on hush-money payments following a sexual tryst with pornographic film star Stormy Daniels. He also has numerous pending investigations and both criminal and civil cases related to corruption and sexual assault.
As President, he will benefit from immunity ensuring a halt to all those cases. But he has also threatened once elected to go after the investigators, prosecutors and judges who went after him over the past few years. He has even threatened to use the military against domestic political opponents.
With his resounding electoral victory, majorities in both Congress and Senate, as well as a Supreme Court dominated by his conservative judges from his first term in office, he will be one of the most powerful US presidents in contemporary times. He will enjoy the kind of power Ruto will probably admire and envy. One thing he will immediately appreciate is that Trump, an unapologetic admirer of dictators and strongmen, will not lecture him on human rights and end to police abductions, torture, enforced disappearances and extra-judicial executions.
