Emerging economies walking into health time bomb

Based on this, many developing nations have emulated their policies and structures over the years, which have worked well in advancing them.

However, as these economies rapidly transition from low to high income status, a crisis blooms unnoticed.

Behind all the success metrics lies a stealthily creeping health crisis.

Reports show that emerging economies increasingly report cases of non-communicable diseases including chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, cancer, and obesity.

Could the rising incomes and rapid urbanisation in these economies communicate the promise of affordability and convenience, incentivising individuals to embrace ultra-processed foods readily?

Is this advancement and lifestyle shift a facade, considering such countries still lack adequate infrastructure to handle the health challenges that accompany development? Are emerging economies, especially in Africa, rashly walking into public health crises akin to the West in the name of development?

Among non-communicable diseases, obesity causes the highest number of deaths globally.

The WHO reported in 2021 that the disease had achieved epidemic status, with about 3 million deaths every year.

The impact in the emerging nations is staggering, highlighting a situational irony where these countries are not only susceptible to diseases of want as might be expected, but also those of excess.

A study by Global Burden of Disease (2025) projects that by 2050, over 3.8 billion adults and 746 million children and adolescents will be obese.

This represents more than 50 per cent of the world's population, putting the affected at risk of other NCDs.

This situation is encouraged by the current sedentary jobs, aggressive marketing tactics by the processed food industry, and convenience consumerism, and reveals the dark side of globalisation these economies strive to achieve.

When a new issue overtakes a prevalent one, it indicates that the new issue demands serious attention.

This is the case for South Africa, which came out strongly to fight against HIV/AIDS as a hindrance to development, only to fuel obesity.

According to WHO (2025), over half of the country's population are currently either overweight or living with obesity, with women making up two-thirds of this number. Parallel to its past issue with HIV, obesity is considered the new epidemic in the country.

In just under a century, UAE has symbolised the rise of a phoenix, boasting technological and innovative advancements and high living standards. Behind the success, however, is a rise in lifestyle diseases.

Obesity is at an all-time high, with the latest projection by Lancet stating that the rates might reach 95 per cent among male and female adults and 81 per cent among children by 2050. This is concerning, especially for a country that has been on a stellar growth trend.

What is happening in these two cases, and many more, is that just like in companies, rapid expansion only thrives when accompanied by the capacity to manage all aspects of the growth.

Scaling too fast can introduce the classic growth trap problem, whereby a country can be thriving on paper but simultaneously have deep issues in the background, case in point, a health crisis.

This is usually associated with an interplay of environmental factors, including social and political hurdles, poor social and institutional structures and global shocks that hinder sustainable development.

Put differently, the environment created because of development fuels systems that make unhealthy lifestyle choices the default, from work environments to food and diet choices.

The tragedy is that explicitly created and organically formed market systems end up harming the country's well-being by failing to address the negative externalities of productivity and development.

This means if not addressed, the projected $4 trillion global economic impact of obesity and overweight cases, according to the World Obesity Federation, threatens to reverse the progress made by countries, subjecting them to the vicious cycles of poverty and ill health.

While there is a recognition of the depth of this health crisis, there is a need for more targeted actions by the governments of emerging nations to ensure their systems will not crack under the pressure of the obesity.

It is no secret that most of these countries' health systems are largely designed to cater to infectious diseases and not NCDs.

The burden of NCDs evidently calls for a systematic shift through policy changes, structural changes, and infrastructural investments.

There is a need to implement effective policies, such as regulations on food advertising, taxes on unhealthy food options, and clear and informative labelling systems.

Also, governments need to create a supportive environment to reduce the impacts of a sedentary lifestyle and encourage healthy lifestyles.

Developing countries are at a crossroads. "The world is moving so fast these days that the man who says it can't be done is generally interrupted by someone doing it." - Elbert Hubbard. We need all hands on deck.

It would be a shame for efforts of individuals, organisations, and governments to amount to anything other than the prosperity strived for.

Dr Olila lectures at the University of Nairobi and is a Postdoctoral Researcher at Mines Paris - PSL University, France