Does a running mate matter in Kenya’s presidential election? Does a running mate help in getting more votes for the presidential ticket?
These are the questions shaping the debate on the August 9 presidential election. The answer to both questions is “no” but a conditional “no” to the second.
There are certain myths and political truths about the number of votes a running mate brings to a presidential ticket.
The debate has intensified because the leading presidential candidates – Raila Odinga of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance and Deputy President William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza – are from two of Kenya’s five most populous communities, Luo and Kalenjin, respectively.
Some people argue that considering the number of votes among other groups – the Kikuyu, Luhya and Kamba – the leading presidential candidates should pick a prospective deputy from these communities.
There is even a specific emphasis on Mt Kenya region of the Kikuyu, Meru and Embu communities.
Others argue that if any of these presidential candidates chooses a female running mate, the person will get more support from women voters.
Then there are those who say voters are interested in the presidential candidate, not prospective deputy presidents. Running mate not a concern for ordinary voters
The arguments in favour of populous groups are crafted to satisfy the interests of elites and not the ordinary voters. Period.
Ordinary voters are interested in how to improve the country’s economy, creating jobs and bringing down the cost of living.
All the same, the three communities without a presidential candidate – the Kikuyu, Luhya and Kamba – are advancing arguments about advantages of their elites and how this can get more votes.
Former Vice-President and Wiper Party chief, Kalonzo Musyoka, from Ukambani says he is the most suited for Azimio la Umoja One Kenya running mate.
He has even suggested that Mr Odinga will lose if the latter does not pick him as running mate in the August presidential election.
Some argue that Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi is the most experienced and more notable in Dr Ruto’s political stable.
They count his experience and courteousness as factors that make him the safest pair of hands and the best bet for a running mate.
There is Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua, former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Governors Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru) and Ndiritu Muriithi (Laikipia) and Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya.
The elites in this region would want any of these, among others, picked as a running mate for Mr Odinga. Those supporting Dr Ruto also have a list.
They have Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, Tharaka Nithi Senator Kithure Kindiki and Mathira MP, Rigathi Gachagua, among others.
Thus far, everyone is made to believe that the choice of a running mate will determine the presidential election outcome.
But the evidence even in the United States where the tradition dates slightly more than two centuries, shows little or no relationship between votes for a president and the choice of a running mate.
Of course, the United States is not Kenya. But there are similar patterns in election results.
To add more votes to the presidential vote, the running mate must satisfy several conditions.
First, the person must have a track record in helping the community. The person must have articulated the grievances, hopes and fears of the community.
It is not everyone chosen, therefore, who can get more votes for the party or coalition’s presidential candidate in the home region of the running mate.
Second, one must have acquired the stature of a community “kingpin” or political gatekeeper.
To take the position of an ethnic kingpin, one must appear as the only person who can solve problems bedevilling the community.
One must clearly demonstrate how he or she has used public position to benefit the community or region.
Very few, if any, political elites in Mt Kenya qualify as kingpins. Only President Uhuru Kenyatta can act as a kingpin because his stature grew from the 2007/8 post-election violence.
Others partially qualify. These include Ms Karua who fought off dictatorship in the 1990s as a national course.
There is also Mr Munya, who has been reforming agriculture with the aim of improving farmers’ incomes.
Some argue that Mr Musyoka stands for himself alone. They say he has not stood up to represent Ukambani grievances, hopes and fears but has done well for himself.
Western Kenya has Mr Mudavadi but the region is so fragmented that some areas have their own kingpins.
Running mate is not a sufficient condition to boost votes of presidential candidates in any region. Also, not all running mates can boost numbers.
One must satisfy several conditions. One must be so loved in the region that residents will be swayed to vote for the presidential candidate or party once he or she is made a running mate.
Secondly, one must have been associated with the region’s problems, and proved capable of articulating them at different levels and times.
Three, one must appear presidential.
The Constitution clearly provides for the deputy to serve as president in the event of death, incapacitation, or resignation.
To look presidential means the person must be acceptable in as many parts of the country as possible.
This means it is a bad idea to pick a running in response to pressure from populous regions if the individual is not capable of serving as a president or is not widely acceptable by the other regions.
In other words, the naming of such a person as running mate can erode support in other regions.
Four, a running mate must be someone the president can work with.
It must be an individual to complement the president. The person should fill gaps in what the public may see as possible shortcomings of a president when in office running the government.
In fact, in presidential campaigns, the concern of supporters is how to get votes, not how to govern.
And because citizens fail to focus on how to govern, they bring up all manner of names including of people who cannot complement or balance the character of the president.
The running mate has become an issue of debate in the 2022 elections because President Kenyatta and Dr Ruto campaigned in 2013 as candidates who would share power.
After elections, they presented an image of “two presidents in one” government.
But what would happen if Mr Odinga and DP Ruto picked running mates from the less populous communities?
Nothing will happen. Residents of populous regions will still go to polling stations and vote for them in the manner they had intended to.
It will show that inclusive politics means working even with the numerically small groups to build a cohesive society. Unfortunately, that will not happen.
Professor Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, [email protected] , @karutikk
