The government is clearly on tenterhooks ahead of the June 25 protests called to commemorate victims of the massacre that crushed the Gen Z anti-tax uprising of two years ago.
That is why we are seeing the leadership speaking out of both sides of the mouth. President William Ruto is warning of stern action against those who turn to violence or otherwise impede business and free movement, while at the same time affirming the constitutional right of citizens to assemble, march and picket.
It is ironic that just days after receiving the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights report on compensation for victims of the June 2024 Gen Z revolt and other political protests, the government is signaling use of lethal force that will multiply the casualty count.
The warnings echoed by Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen and a whole host of politicians competing to catch the eye with the most rabid threats are based on the presumption that the Gen Z commemoration will turn violent, and therefore, a justification for violent countermeasures.
No one in government can think of framing an alternative strategy, where priority would be on a policing that guides, protects and marshals demonstrators, while also isolating and keeping at bay destructive elements that always take advantage of such situations to loot and plunder.
But as has been evident over the past two years, it serves the political purposes of the regime for protests to get out of hand. That is the best way in which those in power can craft and sell narratives on the violent, destructive, subversive nature of anti-government protests.
Schools are already asking children to stay home on the material day. Businesses will also put up the shutters, while the usual commuter traffic will be reduced to a trickle.
It is in this environment that the president is warning of stern action against those who block roads, prevent children getting to school or interfere with daily movement of people and goods.
His warnings are aimed at protest organisers, but would probably better be targeted at the police. Lessons from the past show that all it takes is the threat of street protests for the security organs to come out in force, erecting barricades to supposedly prevent unauthorised assembly, but in reality impeding normal movement to and from school, work and other daily destinations.
The police thus become, inadvertently or otherwise, the prime enforcers of the shutdowns called by demonstrators.
Apart from the police being encouraged to use live bullets against demonstrators, they are also apparently under orders to look the other way as thugs employed by government allies exploit official sanction to loot, rape and plunder.
The activities planned for Thursday are not just a remembrance of the Gen Z protest victims, but also part of the continuing battle for the heart and soul of the youth ahead of the 2027 elections.
The ‘leaderless, partyless, tribeless’ movement that shook President Ruto to the core is already widely distributing the iconic publicity material, which in 2024 demonstrated the power of the Internet as a tool for mass mobilisation.
The Gen Z revolt showed the effectiveness of organisation outside established political platforms and structures, and also the latent power of a vast youth voter base that hitherto had been indifferent to politics.
Now, everybody recognises the power of Gen Z, and the pivotal role youth will play in determining the outcomes of the 2027 elections.
President Ruto’s campaign machinery has been investing heavily in courting and propping up pliable youth voices, while at the same time moving aggressively to disorganise and scatter those not willing to play ball.
On the other side, leaders from across the opposition spectrum are all angling to position themselves as the youth favourites. The United Alternative Government fronted by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and the two main contenders for the opposition alliance presidential ticket, another ex-Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, is keen to project itself as the champion of youth interests.
Ditto the ODM ‘Refuseniks’ of the Linda Mwananchi movement led by Siaya Governor James Orengo and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who have rejected the drift to the Ruto support choir since the death of party founder and opposition icon Raila Odinga. Even former Chief Justice Maranga David Maraga, who is running a solo presidential campaign, is eyeing the youth vote.
Hence, the import given to the Gen Z commemoration, as evidenced by rather elderly opposition politicians seeking to take the frontlines on Thursday, a hijack of the youth movement which will only attract a political response from the other side.
Mr Gaitho, an independent journalist, is former NMG Managing Editor for Special Projects. [email protected] .
