As Kenya enters 2026, the country feels as if it is at a turning point. President William Ruto has given this moment a name: he wants Kenya to follow the “Singapore model”, moving from a developing country to a high-income one within one generation.
In the president’s view, the basics are already in place. Kenya has a young, capable population, a strategic location and a private sector that has shown an ability to innovate. What is missing, he argues, is a change in how development is financed. His Bottom-Up Agenda and the proposed Sh5 trillion National Infrastructure Fund (NIF) are meant to end the reliance on heavy borrowing and instead mobilise domestic savings for long-term growth.
As expected, the Singapore idea has triggered debate. To some, it represents the kind of ambition Kenya has often talked about but struggled to sustain. To others, it sounds unrealistic. Critics note that Singapore’s success rested on strong institutions, a compact geography and a highly disciplined public sector, features that are difficult to replicate in a large, politically noisy country like Kenya.
Singapore is not new to Kenya’s development conversations. Daniel Moi reportedly spoke of it as a model as early as 1980. Mwai Kibaki’s Vision 2030 drew inspiration from the “Asian Tigers”, and Uhuru Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda followed a similar logic. In each case, the ambition was clear, but delivery was uneven, slowed by politics, capacity limits, or lack of funding.
President Ruto’s strategy
In Africa, Rwanda has come closest to following the Singapore (the Little Red Dot) script. Under President Paul Kagame, the country invested heavily in technology and urban planning, frequently drawing on Singaporean expertise. Kigali has built a reputation for cleanliness and efficiency. The results are visible, but Rwanda’s experience also shows how difficult it is to apply a city-state model across an entire country.
The original Singapore story is a striking tale of survival. At independence in 1965, it was a tiny port with no natural resources and a terrifying water crisis. Being entirely dependent on Malaysia for water, it overcame this through “NEWater” (high-grade reclaimed water from treated sewage) and massive desalination. This technological leap turned a vulnerability into a global industry. Then it sustained focus on trade, education and infrastructure.
Today, Singapore manages six million people on a mere 730 square kilometres (smaller than Nyamira County at 897 km²). That geographic compactness gives it an agility that a sprawling Kenya with 55 million people and complex competing ethnic interests cannot easily replicate.
For a more comparable African example, Mauritius is frequently cited. Since its independence in 1968, it has shifted from a sugar-based economy to one anchored in tourism, finance and technology. Its progress rested on political stability, investment in education and consistent respect for the rule of law. Though much smaller than Kenya, it shows the value of sticking to a plan and maintaining credible institutions.
At the centre of President Ruto’s strategy is a rethink of how the state manages money. The proposed NIF and Sovereign Wealth Fund are designed to channel proceeds from State assets into productive investment. Selling minority stakes in companies such as Safaricom and Kenya Pipeline is intended to raise capital without increasing public debt. The Privatisation Act 2025 provides a framework to ensure this money is directed to infrastructure rather than routine government spending. A key test of this approach is the planned completion of the standard gauge railway (SGR) from Naivasha to Malaba.
Singapore’s rise rested on practical choices that Kenya can begin making now. First, merit mattered more than politics. Singapore built a civil service based on competence, not connections. If those managing Kenya’s Sh5 trillion fund are selected for skill and held to clear standards, the money can deliver results. If appointments are driven by loyalty and nepotism, the outcome could be dismal.
Second, the shift towards domestic funding needs to be open and credible. The public must see how funds are raised and spent. If asset sales are transparent and the proceeds are used to finance projects like the SGR extension as promised, confidence will be rebuilt.
Third, attention must be paid to the less visible side of the economy. Infrastructure only works when people have the skills to use it productively. Aligning universities, colleges and technical training with the needs of future industries is as important as building railways and roads.
Singapore’s transformation was the result of steady, sometimes unglamorous choices sustained over decades, without the repeated policy breaks that often accompany Kenya’s election cycles. Kenya does not need to copy Singapore’s politics to gain from its experience. By concentrating on basics such as completing projects, managing public finances carefully, reducing corruption, and appointing capable people, President Ruto can move the country closer to the outcomes he describes.
The author is a journalist, writer and curator of the Wall of Great Africans. X@cobbo3
