President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda.
President Yoweri Museveni’s recent comparison of East Africa to a multi-storey building, where only the ground floor residents claim ownership of the compound, sparked predictable outrage. He argued that it is madness to say the compound belongs only to the flats on the ground floor. While his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s periodic Twitter threats to invade Nairobi make for good political theatre, we must not let the messenger distract us from the message. The underlying grievance deserves serious consideration because it points to a radical truth: both Kenya and Uganda would be economically superior without the border between them.
Let us start with the numbers that matter. Kenya-Uganda bilateral trade is now worth well over Sh160 billion a year, with Uganda firmly established as Kenya’s largest export market in Africa, absorbing about Sh125.9 billion in Kenyan goods in 2024. In the other direction, Uganda ships roughly Sh80 billion worth of goods to Kenya, mostly agro-processed products such as milk, sugar and cereals, along with cement and iron and steel products.
According to UNCTAD, landlocked countries such as Uganda face around 50 per cent higher transport costs than coastal economies. Most of Uganda’s containers to global markets still move through Kenyan territory and the port of Mombasa, which handles about 65.7 per cent of its transit cargo, or 8.8 million tonnes a year. This dependency is not theoretical. In the Idi Amin era, when Kenya briefly cut off fuel supplies and restricted transit through Mombasa, Uganda faced severe shortages and economic strain that nearly toppled the regime.
Unified Kenya-Uganda market
The EU offers a compelling blueprint for what is possible. Research from IMF shows that EU membership increased per capita incomes by more than 30 per cent in countries that joined in 2004. Small countries benefited most, with some gaining up to 40 per cent in GDP growth. When the EU removed internal borders, transaction costs plummeted. We are already seeing a microcosm of this success on the Northern Corridor, where border crossing times at Malaba have dropped from three days to three hours thanks to streamlined procedures. Now, imagine if there was no border at all.
The economic logic is overwhelming. A unified Kenya-Uganda market would create a combined economy of over 100 million people with a GDP exceeding Sh19.4 trillion. This is not just about adding numbers, as it is about creating economies of scale that neither country can achieve alone.
Manufacturing would flourish with a larger, tariff-free domestic market, service industries such as banking and logistics would expand across a broader base, and infrastructure that is currently deemed uneconomical would suddenly make sense. Take the Standard Gauge Railway as Exhibit A. Kenya halted construction at Naivasha partly because the economics did not add up for a foreign country's cargo. In an integrated economy, that calculation changes entirely. The same applies to oil pipelines, electricity grids, and telecommunications. What are currently tense international negotiations would become simple internal planning decisions.
Colonial boundaries
Regional integration would also solve the compound problem regarding sea access. Under UNCLOS, landlocked states have a right to sea access, but in practice, this relies on bilateral goodwill. Full integration eliminates this vulnerability. Mombasa would not be Kenya's port that Uganda uses, but rather our port serving our integrated economy. Admittedly, the political challenges are formidable. Kenya’s democratic system with term limits differs fundamentally from Uganda’s political structure.
Entrenched corruption networks on both sides profit from border inefficiencies and will resist change. Regulatory frameworks, tax systems, and currencies require harmonisation. However, these obstacles are not insurmountable. The East African Community has already made strides with common passports and customs unions. The timing has never been better. In July, both presidents signed agreements covering transport and agriculture, signalling that the political will exists.
Our economies are complementary, not competitive. Our people share languages, cultures, and histories that pre-date colonial boundaries. Both countries are starving for what the other offers. Uganda needs guaranteed sea access while Kenya needs a market multiplier. Both need the jobs that a dynamic, scaled economy would create for a youth population facing 35 per cent unemployment. President Museveni is right that the current borders are irrational. Wars are not the answer, but bold political leadership is. If Kenya and Uganda announced tomorrow that they would eliminate their border within five years to create a single economic entity, it would transform the continent. It is time to stop protecting the ground floor and start building the skyscraper together.
Mr Amenya is a whistleblower, strategy consultant and start-up mentor. www.nelsonamenya.com
