Expensive vegetables continued to put pressure on the Kenyan food basket in February, defying an overall slight decline in the cost of other key commodities.
Fresh data by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that the impact of the poor short rains continues to grip the food markets, piling pressure on the country’s overall inflation.
Kenya's inflation rate dipped slightly to 4.3percent in February, from 4.4percent in January, though the food and non-alcoholic beverages segment, which accounts for nearly a third of the household shopping basket, rose by 7.3 percent over the 12 months to February.
Between January and February 2026, the category recorded a monthly increase of 0.6 percent, driven by contrasting price movements across different food categories.
Some commodities, such as sugar, mangoes, and wheat flour recorded notable price declines during the month, providing reprieve to consumers who have endured elevated food costs since last year.
However, the gains were offset by significant increases in prices of key vegetables, including Sukuma wiki, cabbage, and potatoes that feature prominently in daily diets across the country.
“Between January 2026 and February 2026, prices of sugar, mangoes, and wheat flour-white recorded a decrease in prices which went down by 4.4 percent, 3.2 percent, and 0.8 percent, respectively,” KNBS said.
“In the same period, prices of sukuma wiki went up by 2.4 percent while prices of cabbage and potatoes increased by four percent each.”
The mixed movements come after one of the driest October–December short-rain seasons in decades, which disrupted crop production and reduced market supply for fresh produce.
The Kenya Meteorological Department had predicted below-average rainfall in most parts of the northeast, southeastern lowlands, and the coastal region during the 2025 short rains season.
The forecast materialised, with government and humanitarian agencies warning that weak rains disrupted crop production, reduced pasture availability, and strained food supply chains nationwide.
Food's dominant role in driving the cost of living remains critical, with the division accounting for 32.9 percent of the total weight across all 13 major expenditure categories tracked by KNBS.
The food and non-alcoholic beverages category contributed 2.15 points to the overall inflation of 4.33 points recorded in February 2026, according to the KNBS’ breakdown.
Freshly harvested vegetables from the kitchen garden of a resident of Karen in Nairobi on January 18, 2025.
Photo credit: Billy Ogada | Nation Media Group
Non-core inflation, which includes volatile food and energy items, stood at 10.1 percent in February, significantly higher than core inflation of 2.1 percent during the same period.
The impact of weather shocks has been most visible in fresh produce prices, which tend to respond quickly to growing cycle disruptions and limited storage capacity in markets.
The rise in vegetable prices has kept non-core inflation elevated, highlighting the continued supremacy of volatile food items in household spending patterns across the country.
In February, prices of traditional vegetables rose by 2.0 percent, fortified maize flour increased by 1.3 percent, and beef with bones went up by 0.4 percent.
Freshly packed cow milk remained relatively stable at Sh56.80 for a 500 millilitre packet, while cooking oil rose marginally from Sh342.50 to Sh345.83 per litre.
In contrast, transport prices declined by 0.7 percent during the month, supported by lower petrol and diesel prices, which dropped by 2.3 percent each in the review period.
Electricity costs also decreased, with 50 kWh reducing from Sh1,304.29 to Sh1,265.96, while 200 kWh went down from Sh5,718.08 to Sh5,564.78 in February.
Some of vegetables grown at Lilian Chepngetich Farm in Nyalenda slums, Kisumu in this photo taken on August 24, 2025
Photo credit: Fridah Okachi | Nation
Kenya's headline inflation has remained below five percent since mid-2025, supported by a stable shilling and easing imported inflation for fuel and manufactured goods.
The stable currency has helped cushion consumers from external price shocks, even as domestic food supply challenges persist due to irregular weather patterns.
