A new report has revealed how the high cost of living and unemployment sank millions of Kenyans into poverty, leaving two in five Kenyans poor in 2022, with one in three citizens unable to meet their minimum food requirements.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) poverty report shows that in 2022, 20.16 million Kenyans lived in overall conditions of poverty, 16 million Kenyans could not afford basic food needs and some 3.6 million citizens were in abject poverty.
At least 1.1 million Kenyans sunk into poverty between 2021 and 2022 mainly because of high cost of living and unemployment, the report reveals, a worrying revelation that now creates the possibility that even more Kenyans could have sunk into poverty last year, as inflation ravaged the country through the two years.
Inflation averaged above the Central Bank cap of 7.5 percent from June 2022 to June 2023, and it is during this period when its impact was most felt by households. While the KNBS report does not capture poverty levels last year, the recognition that the high cost of living was key in households falling into poverty points to the fact that more Kenyans could have fallen even last year.
The KNBS survey interviewed close to 17,850 households across the country, classifying three different forms of poverty- overall, food and hardcore poverty.
In computing overall poverty, KNBS considered household’s total monthly spending on consumption of food and basic non-food expenditures such as shelter, clothing, and personal care, which are essential for social participation. It classified an individual whose total monthly consumption was below Sh8,006 (urban) or Sh4,358 (rural) as living in overall/absolute poverty.
“Nationally the overall poverty headcount rate for individuals was at 39.8 percent in 2022, this implies that about 20.2 million individuals were unable to meet the overall poverty line threshold,” KNBS stated. Kenyans living in rural areas account for three-quarters (15 million) of the people living in overall poverty, as urban dwellers account for 5.4 million of the people living in poverty.
In terms of households, 3 million rural households lived in overall poverty in 2022, against 1.3 million urban households.
Four in 10 youths aged 15-24 (44 per cent) and more than a third (37 per cent) of youth aged 18-35, lived in overall poverty.
“This is equivalent to 4.3 million (15-24) and 5.2 million (18-35) youths, respectively. Among the 18- 35 age group, there are more poor youth in rural areas (40 percent) than in urban areas (30 per cent),” KNBS notes.
As a share of the population, overall poverty rates in the country had dropped from 36.1 percent in 2015/16 to 33.6 percent in 2019, then rose to peak at 42.9 percent in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic, before falling to 38.6 of Kenyans in 2021.
“However, the recovery stalled in 2022 as the poverty rate rose slightly to 39.8 per cent in 2022. In summary, these macroeconomic trends — contraction in agriculture, slow employment growth, and rising inflation — has collectively contributed to the slight increase in poverty levels observed in 2022. The annual inflation rate increased between 2021 and 2022, indicating a rise in the cost of living,” KNBS notes.
Inflation averaged 8.12 per cent in 2022 but fell slightly to 7.69 percent last year, though in 2023 it remained above Central Bank cap of 7.5 percent until June (7.9 percent).
Turkana had the highest proportion (82.7 per cent) of its population living in absolute poverty, followed by Mandera (72.9 percent), Samburu (71.9 percent), Garissa (67.8 per cent), Tana River (66.7 percent), Marsabit (66.1 per cent), and Wajir (64.7 per cent). On the other hand, the lowest overall poverty rates were in Nairobi City (16.5 per cent), Kiambu (19.9 per cent), Kirinyaga (23.1 percent) and Embu (24.3 per cent), all with less than a quarter of their populations living in poverty.
The report notes that three in 10 households in the country (about 4.36 million households) are poor. Thirty-eight per cent of rural households live in poverty, compared to a quarter (26 percent) of urban households.
Female-headed households have slightly higher poverty headcount rates (35.3 percent) compared to male-headed households (32.6 per cent), and 38 percent of households with children are poor, compared to 24 percent of households with no children.
“Rural households with children had the highest poverty headcount rate of 41 per cent in this category. Poverty headcount rate increases with household size across all domains of residence, ranging from a low of 20 percent of households with 1 to 3 members to 60 percent among households with 7 or more members,” KNBS notes.
The report also notes that households with heads in polygamous marriages are one and a half times more likely to be poor compared to their counterparts with household heads in monogamous marriages, while households headed by a person with no education have a 61 per cent chance of being poor, with the poverty chances higher (71 per cent) in urban areas, compared to 59 percent in rural areas.
The survey classified Kenyans whose total monthly spending on food was below Sh2,668 (rural areas) and Sh3,520 (urban areas), as living in food poverty. Those whose total spending on food, shelter, clothing and other basic needs was below these amounts were classified as living in hardcore poverty.
Of the 16 million Kenyans living in food poverty, 11.4 million are in rural areas and 4.6 million in urban areas.
“The food poor households in rural areas were around 2.2 million and in urban areas they were 1 .2 million,” the report notes.
KNBS observes that at least four counties have more than half of their populations living in food poverty, all based in the Arid and Semi-Arid Areas (ASAL). They are Turkana (64.3 percent), Mandera (60.4 percent), Samburu (56.7 percent), and Marsabit (54.4 percent).
On the other hand, counties with the lowest food poverty rates are Nairobi City (15.8 per cent of its population), Nyeri (18.2 per cent), and Kiambu (18.3 percent).
In terms of counties contributing highest numbers of food poor people- in absolute terms- however, Nairobi (733,000 people), Kilifi (717,000), Turkana (636,000), Bungoma (625,000), Nakuru (605,000), Kakamega (597,000) and Mandera (558,000) top the list, collectively hosting 27.8 percent of food-poor Kenyans.
Of the food-poor Kenyans, 7.5 million are children aged up to 17, 4 million are youth aged between 15 and 24, and 4.4 million belong to the 18-35 years age group, with rural areas always suffering most.
“According to this survey, 31 percent (479,000) of adults aged 70+ were food poor nationally in 2022. Elderly persons living in urban areas are poorer than their rural counterparts (39 percent against 30 percent),” the report notes. Over 3.6 million Kenyans lived in hardcore poverty- the worst form of poverty- with close to 90 percent (3.2 million) being rural dwellers, as urban dwellers accounted for about 387,000 of the Kenyans in abject poverty.
“Rural areas had 10 times more hardcore poor households than urban areas,” the report notes.
Living in hardcore poverty means that an individual’s total spending on necessities such as food, rent, clothing, cleaning and other necessities, falls below a set minimum threshold for a person to spend on food alone. Therefore, even if the person used all the money they spend on these necessities to buy food alone, it would still not be enough for what is set as the least he/she should spend on food, to be able to lead a dignified life. With 42.6 per cent of its population living in hardcore poverty, Turkana County had the highest abject poverty rate in the country, followed by Samburu (36 per cent), Marsabit (26.2 per cent), Mandera (24.8 per cent) and Tana River (22.7 per cent).
The report notes that among children, 6 percent of those aged 0-5 years live in abject poverty, and so are 8 percent of children aged 6-13 and 14-17 years.
“In terms of rural and urban areas of residence, child hardcore poverty is three times higher among children in rural areas compared to urban areas at, 9 and 3 per cent respectively,” KNBS notes
Among the youth, 770,000 of those aged 15-24 and 914,000 of those aged 18-35 are in abject poverty. KNBS revised average national food and non-food spending per month per adult from Sh7,393 in 2021 to Sh8,030, due to the high cost of living that was catalysed by inflation in 2022. A kilo of maize flour, for instance, cost Sh79 in 2022, up from Sh66.5 the previous year. A kilo of sugar also cost Sh138 from Sh115 over the same period, the price of a kilo of Sukuma wiki increased from Sh54.5 to Sh604, and wheat flour cost Sh174 from Sh131 for a 2kg packet. The inflation has, however, since cooled down to average at 4.85 per cent this year, with October marking a low of 2.7 percent.
