Retail sugar prices have stabilised at elevated levels since mid-2025, reflecting a biting shortage of mature cane that has cut production and forced millers to scale down operations.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows the average retail price of sugar since June averaged Sh185.66 per kilogramme, the highest levels in 18 months since March 2024.
The sweetener sold for Sh185.21 per kilogramme in September 2025, slightly below Sh186.53 in August, Sh186.78 in July, and Sh184.13 in June, pointing to a plateau after months of steady increases since falling to Sh150.33 in October 2024.
The elevated prices come amid constraints in supply of cane, which prompted the Kenya Sugar Board (KSB) to direct seven factories in western Kenya to halt milling initially for three months from mid-July to allow the crop to mature.
The regulator said the decision was taken after a stakeholder meeting established that lower and upper western sugarcane catchment areas had a “severe shortage of mature cane”.
A farmer harvesting sugarcane in Mabanga village, Bungoma County.
Photo credit: File| Nation Media Group
“It was, therefore, resolved that milling operations in the region be temporarily stopped to allow cane to mature,” KSB acting chief executive, Jude Chesire, said in a notice to millers in July.
The directive came after the country reported a rare surplus late last year, with factories reportedly milling more than domestic demand.
In September 2024, for example, monthly sugar production stood at 83,500 tonnes, exceeding the country’s average monthly consumption of about 80,000 tonnes.
That temporary boom had prompted President William Ruto, during his State of the Nation Address in November 2024, to hail the revival of the sugar industry.
“For the first time in recent history, Kenya is producing enough sugar to meet local demand,” Dr Ruto said. “This success is attributed to subsidised fertiliser for sugarcane farmers, an additional 500,000 acres of land brought under production, and improved management of the sector. I just signed the new sugar law to provide further policy guidance as we seek to be a sugar-exporting country.”
However, the rebound proved short-lived as erratic weather, harvesting of immature cane, and inadequate replanting quickly eroded gains.
The result has been a renewed supply crunch, leaving consumers grappling with persistently high prices.
KSB data shows that cane deliveries to millers were already falling long before the regulator acted, more than halving to 383,050 metric tonnes in May from 827,482 tonnes in January.
Supply plunged 25.11 percent year-on-year to 4.12 million tonnes between January and July 2025 —the lowest volumes recorded since 2023 when output hit multi-year lows.
Typically, sugarcane takes between 16 and 18 months to reach optimal maturity.
But in recent months, millers have increasingly been crushing cane as young as 10 months old, far below the recommended maturity period.
This has been blamed on poaching, as factories compete to meet crushing targets by harvesting from neighbouring farms, leading to lower sucrose yields and rising production costs.
