Heavy rains expected in late April after slow start

Kenyans across several parts of the country can expect heavy rains in late April, the Weatherman has said.  

The rainfall is likely to be slightly depressed during the first half of the month, before strengthening towards the end of April, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) said in its latest update. This delayed onset is expected to have significant implications for arid areas, where early rains are critical for triggering pasture regeneration.

Arid and semi-arid regions across northern Kenya are staring at a mixed rainfall outlook this April, with some areas likely to receive enhanced rains while others face near- to below-average conditions. Parts of Northeastern Kenya are expected to receive above-average rainfall. They include northern sections of Marsabit, Wajir and Mandera.

However, several areas within the same counties, as well as parts of Garissa and Isiolo, are expected to experience near- to below-average rainfall.

This would delay the recovery of water sources such as rivers, pans and boreholes, raising concerns over water access and pasture regeneration.

The rains expected in parts of Marsabit, Wajir and Mandera are likely to boost underground water reserves and revive seasonal rivers, offering much needed short-term relief to water-stressed communities. However, the downpours also raise the risk of flash floods, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage and settlements along dry riverbeds.

“April marks the peak of the MAM (March-April-May) season, which climatologically characterised by heavy rainfall events,” Kenya Met said.

“During this period, isolated heavy rainfall events may occur nationwide.”

The MAM seasonal rainfall is primarily driven by the northward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This seasonal shift draws in warm, moist air masses from the Indian Ocean and the Congo Basin, creating conditions that favour rainfall over East Africa.

Coast, highlands and Rift Valley 

Beyond the arid and semi-arid lands, the forecast paints a more stable picture in Kenya’s high-potential agricultural zones. The Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and parts of the Rift Valley are expected to receive near-average rainfall during April.

While this is generally favourable for crop production, experts warn that isolated heavy rainfall events could still pose risks.

“After severe flooding in March in several parts of the country where rivers burst banks and drainage systems failed,” Kenya Met said.

Waterlogging, soil erosion and nutrient leaching are among the potential impacts that could undermine agricultural productivity if not properly managed.

At the same time, areas in South-eastern Lowlands and the Coast are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, implying that they may not benefit sufficiently from the season.

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