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Modified rain: Why Kenya abandoned cloud seeding ambitions
A woman jumps over a flooded a section of a road in Nairobi's CBD following heavy rains on February 22, 2026.
What you need to know:
- The process involves introducing artificial nuclei into developing clouds.
- According to meteorologists, cloud seeding does not create rain from nothing.
Kenya’s interest in cloud seeding and weather modification dates back to the mid-1970s, when scientists from the Kenya Meteorological Department conducted early experiments to alter rainfall patterns.
The process involves introducing artificial nuclei into developing clouds, such as cumulus and stratiform clouds, to encourage or enhance rainfall.
The technique relies on materials such as silver iodide, commonly used worldwide in powder form, to trigger the formation of raindrops.
In an exclusive interview with Nation, John Mungai, the Assistant Director at the newly rebranded Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA), explained that the idea was still highly experimental in the early 2000s, when Kenya took a keen interest in the technology.
Between 1998 and 2004, the country experienced repeated La Niña events that triggered severe droughts and massive livestock losses. It was out of this climate pressure that the forecasting body began exploring whether science could offer a way to reduce the impact of such extreme weather.
“The Meteorological Service explored methods of ameliorating the situation by applying scientific methods,” Mungai said.
At the time, according to Mungai, the department also considered other possible uses of weather modification. Under the Vision 2030 framework, weather modification was identified as a potential flagship initiative for the Kenya Meteorological Department.
The long-term ambition included hail suppression in Kericho, snowpack enhancement on Mount Kenya, and fog and frost reduction in the highlands.
However, there was no urgency to roll out an operational programme for cloud seeding.
“The initiative was largely research-based and aimed at assessing the feasibility of the process,” Mungai said, “rather than immediate implementation.”
This led to training efforts abroad for selected staff from the meteorological authority. However, even with renewed interest, implementation remained slow.
Pedestrians shield themselves from the rain using umbrellas in Nairobi's CBD on February 22, 2026.
By the time discussions matured in the 2010s, Kenya was still facing major technical and financial gaps. According to Mungai, there was limited local expertise in the field.
“It is very evident that you cannot do weather modification without a very solid base of scientists who are knowledgeable in that field,” Mungai explained.
According to meteorologists, cloud seeding does not create rain from nothing. Rain formation depends on sufficient moisture within a cloud.
For rainfall to occur, atmospheric moisture must condense around a central particle, known as a cloud nucleus or “seed,” which may occur naturally or be introduced artificially using aircraft or ground-based generators.
“To determine whether these cloud conditions are met,” Mungai said, “special remote-sensing radar is required in the proximity of the clouds under surveillance.”
It targets convective cumulus clouds where water vapour can be encouraged to gather more efficiently.
“Some studies suggest that cloud seeding can increase precipitation by between 10 and 15 percent,” Mungai explained. “However, it is difficult to scientifically prove whether the rain would have fallen naturally or not.”
Weather modification
Mungai explained that the process is far more complex than simply “making it rain,” requiring a coordinated system of aviation, science, and materials.
“You need pilots, trained meteorologists, and experts in that field, such as cloud physicists,” Mungai noted. “You also need the silver iodide itself, which at that time was not being produced in Kenya. It had to be imported.”
Silver iodide is the primary seeding material commonly used in weather modification because its crystalline structure is nearly identical to the natural ice crystals found in convective clouds.
An alternative to silver iodide is potassium iodide. Dry ice is also used, but it interacts differently with the cloud environment by supercooling the air in the cloud.
According to the KMSA assistant director, cloud-seeding salts come with significant cost implications due to their composition and sourcing.
“The idea is that there is silver in it, so it is very expensive, or a bit pricier, because it contains silver iodide.”
Motorists drive through a flooded section of Kenyatta Avenue in Nairobi on March 20, 2026, following heavy rainfall.
Beyond the materials, operational capacity was another major gap. The department, he noted, did not have the aviation infrastructure needed to support such a programme.
“When it came to pilots, at the Meteorological Department we have zero pilots,” Mungai explained. “The whole idea was to get them from another institution. We did not even have aircraft, so getting a pilot was out of the question, you would have to get both the pilots and the aircraft together.”
Ground-based alternatives like cloud-seeding cannons exist, but they are limited to specific terrain and require additional infrastructure and permissions.
“All of that makes it extremely expensive,” Mungai said.
While cloud seeding is designed to enhance rainfall, weather systems are complex and unpredictable.
“There is a possibility that seeded clouds could merge with natural systems and intensify rainfall,” he explained. “But the atmosphere is difficult to control.”
Flood risks remain a theoretical concern, though no clear evidence confirms large-scale extreme weather caused solely by cloud seeding.
Concerns have been raised by some health experts about potential silver toxicity in rainwater from cloud seeding. However, the concentration of silver used in seeding agents is extremely low and generally not considered a significant health risk.
There is also concern over whether long-term repeated seeding could lead to an accumulation of silver in the soil or sediment of sensitive watersheds.
Today, Kenya still does not operate a full cloud-seeding programme.
Under the Meteorology Act (2026), weather modification is regulated, but implementation remains limited by infrastructure, funding, and technical capacity.
“We are still at a research stage,” Mungai says.
Instead, Kenya has shifted focus toward more grounded climate strategies, including large-scale reforestation efforts and broader climate adaptation policies.
For a country where 75 percent of the land is arid or semi-arid, cloud seeding raises a difficult question: Is it the right tool for Kenya’s water crisis?
Mungai is cautious.
A man wades through a flooded section of Moi Avenue in Nairobi on March 20, 2026, following heavy rainfall.
“Cloud seeding cannot create clouds. It can only enhance existing ones,” he noted. “During severe droughts, there may simply not be enough moisture in the atmosphere.”
In that sense, it becomes a tool that works best when it is least needed and is least effective when it is most desired.
Many people mistake the white trails left by aircraft in the sky for cloud seeding, but experts say this is not the case. According to John Mungai, contrail formation is actually a natural reaction in the upper atmosphere and not a deliberate intervention.
“That is an inadvertent form of cloud seeding. It is not deliberate,” he explained, noting that aircraft exhaust releases particles that can act like cloud nuclei. “Those particles could fall within the bracket of the artificial cloud-seeding nuclei that we inject into clouds.”
However, he stressed that this does not result in rainfall.
“It is not going to produce any rain because there’s not enough moisture. The air up there is very dry,” he said.
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