Early Christmas for Kenyan maize sellers, but threat of cheap grain imports looms
Farmers pack dry maize into bags in Nakuru County on September 23, 2024.
What you need to know:
- While the NCPB targets to purchase up to one million bags at Sh3,500 for a 90kg bag, amounting to Sh3.5 billion for the National Strategic Food Reserve, millers and other traders have raised the prices from Sh2,600 to Sh3,850.
It is an early Christmas for maize farmers as the cost of the commodity has skyrocketed as a result of price wars between millers and the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) due to increased demand for the produce in the market.
Maize prices have risen from Sh2,600 to Sh3,800 per 90kg in the past month, pushing up the cost of flour from Sh120 to Sh140 per two kilogramme packet, to the chagrin of consumers who have to dig deeper into their pockets to afford the staple food for most households.
While the NCPB targets to purchase up to one million bags at Sh3,500 for a 90kg bag, amounting to Sh3.5 billion for the National Strategic Food Reserve, millers and other traders have raised the prices from Sh2,600 to Sh3,850 in a cut throat competition with the government agency to bolster their stocks.
The NCPB management has admitted slow pace of maize delivery to its buying centres purchasing about 10,000 bags mainly in the North Rift region, the country’s food basket.
“The delivery of the produce to our buying centres is slow but steady and we urge farmers to continue supplying the crop,” said Titus Maiyo, corporate communications manager.
The government through the NCPB plans to purchase one million bags of maize at Sh3,500 per 90kg for the National Strategic Food Reserve.
According to Agriculture and Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary Andrew Karanja the Sh3,500 per bag is intended to support farmers to maintain profit margins and invest in the next crop.
“We project a bumper harvest compared to last season when we managed between 40 and 60 million bags but about 75 million bags of 50kg will be realised this season,” said Dr Karanja while defending the set maize prices arguing that it will help maintain unga prices at the current Sh130 per 2kg packet.
Maize farmers in the North Rift region have now cast doubt on the predicted bumper crop, saying that the infiltration of fake fertiliser into the government-subsidised scheme, coupled with erratic climatic conditions, has led to a reduced harvest.
“The reality on the ground is that most farmers will realise low maize yield this season due to distribution of sub-standard fertiliser and unreliable weather conditions that affected the growth of the crop,” said James Songok, a large-scale farmer from Cheptiret, Uasin Gishu County.
The county is already experiencing an influx of cheap grains from neighbouring maize-growing countries.
The entry of low-cost grains from Uganda under the East African Common Market (EAC) protocol is likely to complicate issues for maize farmers who have embarked on harvesting the grains.
Some traders are importing maize from Uganda and Tanzania, while others are going as far as Zambia, which is likely to cause a drastic drop in the price of the commodity.
The arrival of cheap grain comes as maize farmers in the North Rift region, the country's food basket, begin harvesting.
Trans Nzoia County is expected to produce an estimated 5.3 million bags of maize, while it consumes about 2 million bags, of which an estimated 3.3 million will be released to the market.
Uasin Gishu County, another maize-producing zone, is projected to harvest about 4.5 million bags of maize this season out of which more than 2.5 million bags will be released to the market.
The Kenya Kwanza administration has pledged to put up measures that will ensure the country does not import maize by 2025.
The country imports food worth Sh500 billion annually but President William Ruto has pledged to prioritise agriculture and help farmers increase productivity to cut down on the imports.
Millers say the arrival of maize from Tanzania and Uganda will help bring down costs.
Tanzania is the major exporter of maize and rice to Kenya and other East and countries, including eastern DR Congo, Burundi and South Sudan.
“The maize prices are expected to plummet further due to the arrival of cheap grains and harvest of short-term crops – potatoes, beans – among other alternative food crops to maize,” said Joshua Kosgei, an Eldoret-based miller.
Maize imports from Uganda increased from 2,629 tonnes to 34,590 tonnes in the 2022/2023, while imports from Zambia increased from 10,728 to 88,050 tonnes in the same period.
The imports from South Africa increased from 2,782 to 64,512 tonnes but the imports from Tanzania declined from 708,978 to 412,755 tonnes due to export constraints.
The millers want the government to harmonise standards for cess and levies across the counties to facilitate a steady flow of maize to sustain operations.
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Kenya has imported an average of 295,092 tonnes of maize annually over the past five years.
Lawmakers from maize growing zones are under pressure from farmers to compel the government to allocate funds under the supplementary budget to buy the crop at attractive prices of above Sh4,000 per 90kg bag.
“The NCPB needs to purchase the crop above Sh4,000 per 90kg bag to enable farmers to break even and earn a profit,” said Prof Phyllis Bartoo, Moiben MP.
