John Kimani, Kitengela town butcher, serving his customers on December 20, 2025.
One month into the ongoing Israel–US conflict with Iran, the global ripple effects of the war, which have hit various sectors in the country, continue to trickle down, affecting the livelihoods of the pastoral community in Kajiado County.
Livestock farmers in the semi-arid county are reporting a sharp decline in small animal sales following the conflict, which has disrupted the meat export market to UAE.
Kajiado County, which boasts an annual livestock turnover of Sh3.2 billion, has been a major cog in the mutton and beef export trade for years.
Mr James Silonka told Saturday Nation that in the last month, middlemen dealing in goats and sheep have reduced after hundreds of export meat orders were cancelled.
John Kimani, Kitengela town butcher, serving his customers on December 20, 2025.
"Over the years, we have been selling goats and sheep to middlemen for export to Middle East countries, which have been a major market for mutton and some beef. Currently, the trucks that used to ferry animals to private slaughterhouses in Nairobi and Kiambu counties in readiness for export are no more, affecting livestock trade," said Silonka.
"A major company within the Export Processing Authority (EPZA) that used to slaughter 6,000 goats and 600 cows daily has since shut down after their cold rooms were reportedly full, shutting a lifeline."
He added: "A sheep that would have fetched Sh20,000, especially now towards Easter, is retailing at Sh15,000. A lamb that is marketable for export meat goes for as little as Sh4,000, down from Sh10,000 in January."
According to county government data, Ilbisil Livestock Sale Yard cum slaughterhouse typically handles sales between Sh10 million and Sh20 million on peak days before the recent downturn that reduced sales of small animals and cattle by at least 40 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.
Agriculture, Livestock and Veterinary Services County Executive Committee Member Francis Sakuda said at least 20 women’s cooperatives had their red meat orders to the Middle East cancelled following the ongoing conflict. Sakuda said the war’s ripple effects have affected the National Value Chain Development Project (NAVCDP) under the World Bank, meant to transform smallholder farming into profit-oriented agriculture. Red meat value addition has been central to the project.
“At least 20 daily cooperatives are almost on their knees. Red meat prices have reduced by 40 per cent following cancellations of orders to Middle East countries. Most of the animals the dejected farmers had fattened to ensure a steady supply of meat have begun losing weight. Let the national government move in earnest to cushion farmers,” said Sakuda, adding that hundreds of individual local farmers who export meat to war-torn countries are also affected.
High air freight costs, reduced cargo flights
Recently, Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture and Livestock Development Mutahi Kagwe said Kenya's meat exports to the Middle East have dropped below five percent of expected levels due to conflicts, causing high air freight costs and reduced cargo flights.
Agriculture and Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe address journalists during the opening of the UN food system summit (UNFSS+4) Africa region preparatory meeting held in Gigiri, Nairobi on May 5, 2025.
Weekly, this impacts at least Sh300 million in sales, particularly affecting sheep, goat, and beef shipments to key markets like the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait.
Ministry of Agriculture data indicates that meat exports from Kenya grew from Sh11.5 billion in 2022 to Sh18.7 billion by late 2024.
The main exports include mutton, goat, and beef, with processed milk and dairy exports also experiencing 92 per cent growth in 2024.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the top destination, accounting for 40 per cent to 60 per cent of meat shipments, followed by Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Losses
Mr James Kispin, 60, from Mashuru Sub-County, said he has been fattening small animals, eyeing the Middle East market through middlemen, but he is now being forced to sell his animals at a loss in the already flooded domestic market.
He said he bought animals during the recent dry spell that had snowballed into a drought before spending a fortune fattening them in anticipation of the foreign market.
In December 2025, the National Drought Management Authority listed Kajiado among Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) drought hotspots, with at least 64,300 households facing food shortages.
"I had spent a fortune to fatten at least 1,000 goats and sheep, eyeing the Middle East countries through a middleman. Each day the war continues spells doom to my enterprises. I will be forced to sell them at a loss as the business now is not tenable,” said Kispin.
He challenged the county government to invest in reefers to cushion farmers from unprecedented calamities. He added the containers are affordable, and each can preserve more than 1,000 carcasses.
Ironically, as the small animal trade plummets, demand for cattle has increased, with prices skyrocketing in the last month. Cattle supply has diminished, considering most farmers are clinging to their animals for fattening after the long dry spells that have ravaged the parched rangelands.
Ulternative
Ms Nancy Marima, a farmer, said she is not willing to sell her few animals at a time when there is plenty of pasture following the ongoing rains.
"Instead of selling the few animals I have, I wish to restock my herd and fatten several aged animals for better prices in months to come," said Marima.
Ilbisil Livestock Market chairman James Ole Nkapapa said the prices of cattle have shot up in the last two months due to low supply, adding that the cattle trade has not been affected by the shrinkage of the Middle East meat export market.
"Sheep and goat farmers are feeling the pinch of the Israel–US conflict with Iran meat export uncertainty, but cattle farmers are reaping a fortune. A mature bull is retailing between Sh150,000 and Sh200,000. We expect prices to increase further towards Easter Day."
The same animal price hike has been reported in other major livestock markets, including Shompole, Namanga, Kiserian, and Sultan Hamud.
He further said the importation of livestock from neighbouring Tanzania has been destabilised by the ongoing rains, making seasonal rivers impassable.
The beef price increase has trickled down to consumers within satellite towns and shopping centres, spelling doom for beef lovers during the Easter festivities.
A spot check at Kitengela slaughterhouse on Wednesday indicated beef wholesale prices had increased from Sh650 to Sh680 per kilogram. Local butcheries are selling a kilogram of beef between Sh850 and Sh900, while mutton is retailing in the same range, down from Sh1,000 per kilogram a month ago. High-end eateries are selling a cooked kilogram of beef between Sh1,000 and Sh1,500.
"Currently, the prices of beef and mutton are at par. The demand for beef is high considering the low supply, while the supply of goats and sheep is steady in the market, owing to the global meat export market decline following the ongoing war. Beef customers have reduced, turning to mutton," said John Kimani, a butcher.
Farmers are now urging the government to resume the Kenya Meat Commission off-take programme to cushion farmers as authorities explore alternative global markets for Kenyan meat.
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