How Orengo presidential ambition opens up Siaya governor race

His declaration to vie for the presidency in 2027 has, however, opened up the race for his successor, with both allies and critics positioning themselves to become the county’s next boss.

The candidates who have declared interest include Siaya Deputy Governor William Oduol, former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo, and Ugenya MP David Ochieng’.

Other names that have been mentioned, though yet to make any formal declaration, include Bondo MP Gideon Ochanda, former Cabinet Secretary Raphael Tuju, Energy and Petroleum CS Opiyo Wandayi, and Siaya Speaker George Okode. None has openly confirmed plans to contest the county’s top seat.

Succession race gains momentum

Intense but quiet lobbying is ongoing in Siaya as aspirants mobilise voters ahead of the 2027 contest. Aspirants such as Mr Gumbo, Mr Ochieng’, and Mr Oduol have already hit the ground running, campaigning on various platforms.

Also Read: Orengo: I have what it takes to be President

When contacted, Mr Gumbo described Mr Orengo’s national political manoeuvres as “shenanigans” and a “smokescreen” meant to conceal what he termed as poor leadership in the county over the past few years.

“Orengo has decided to become a nuisance in the hope that he can be called to the negotiation table with either the President or the opposition. People of Siaya should see him for who he is and understand that he cannot provide leadership at the national level,” said Mr Gumbo.

Mr Gumbo, however, said the unfolding political situation presents an opportunity for Siaya residents to elect a better leader, insisting that his experience and development track record give him an edge.

“What I know is that I work harder than my competitors, I love Siaya more, and the people believe in my programmes. The missing link has always been the choice of party, and that has now been fixed since I am firmly in ODM,” said Mr Gumbo.

Tuju and Orengo’s emerging political alliance

There appears to be a newly formed camaraderie between Governor Orengo and Mr Tuju over the past few weeks.

Before the season of political tribulations that placed him at odds with influential individuals and the machinery of the State, Mr Tuju was not publicly regarded as a close political confidant of Governor Orengo.

Also Read: Inside Orengo, Sifuna silent supremacy battle in Linda Mwananchi

Politically, the two leaders have not always marched under the same banner. It was only after the historic handshake between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga on March 9, 2018, that they found common ground and closed ranks in the spirit of national reconciliation.

Yet in the post-Raila era, political dynamics have continued to shift both nationally and locally, where yesterday’s adversaries are recast as today’s allies and old alliances give way to new calculations.

Among these emerging partnerships, the growing political rapport between Mr Tuju and Governor Orengo has become one of the more closely watched developments as the country steadily moves towards the 2027 General Election.

In recent weeks, as Mr Tuju endured a series of ordeals — from the seizure of his Karen property to his arrest and subsequent hospitalisation — one of the most steadfast voices raised in his defence was Governor Orengo, who publicly condemned the incidents and visited him.

Barely a fortnight later, upon the former CS’s return to his ancestral home in Ralingo for prayers and reflection, he was again received warmly by the Siaya governor at his office in Siaya Town, in a meeting rich in symbolism and not lost on political observers.

Also Read: Why Governor Orengo’s security was withdrawn

“Tuju came home to have a conversation with the ancestors after what he went through recently. When you stand for the truth, you end up being put on trial, but rest assured that we stand in solidarity with you,” said Mr Orengo.

Tuju hints at possible political comeback

Since then, the two leaders have appeared increasingly close, with the bond further cemented when Mr Tuju joined the Governor Orengo-led Linda Mwananchi faction within ODM.

He was among leaders who recently stormed Kisumu City for a mega rally at KaOwuor Grounds, where his presence drew cheers from the crowd.

And when he rose to speak, his remarks were brief but telling: “When you see a crocodile leave the water, it only means that there is something wrong inside the water.”

His less-than-two-minute speech ended with a hearty embrace with Governor Orengo before he resumed his seat.

While Orengo is yet to declare whether he will carry the Linda Mwananchi presidential flag or seek re-election in Siaya, there are already reports that he could be quietly planning his succession in the county. His growing closeness with Mr Tuju is seen by some observers as a counterweight to Dr Oburu Oginga’s perceived leaning towards Mr Gumbo — all of whom hail from Rarieda.

A few weeks ago, when Mr Tuju was asked about his future political plans, he dismissed any immediate chances of seeking an elective seat, saying part of his responsibility is to fight for what is right. He, however, noted that he was observing the political landscape before making a final decision.

“You don’t have to be in the political arena as an MP or Senator to make a difference in somebody’s life. But I am listening to the ground and also talking back to them, and I am starting with my Ralingo village,” said Mr Tuju.

A few days ago, during several stopovers in his home area of Rarieda, he gave the clearest indication yet that he may contest a political seat after locals urged him to choose between serving them as MP or Governor of Siaya.

In response, he sought assurance that they would support him without conditions.

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