Heightened temperatures, air pollution, could kill 30 million globally people by 2100

Scientists say that as temperature levels hit their highest peak in 2024, approximately 30 million people are projected to perish yearly by 2100 owing to extreme temperatures and air pollution.

The number of annual deaths attributed to escalated global warming could shoot up by seven times exceeding pollution-linked deaths which are set to surge by five times, as demonstrated by a team of international researchers.

The 2024 study published in the Nature Communications Journal comes at a time when scientists have raised the alarm over escalating mortality linked to extreme climate change and air pollution.

Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, based their calculations on projections analysed every 10 years between 2000 – 2090.

To estimate the rate of mortality associated with extreme temperatures and pollution, the researchers used advanced numerical simulations.
“Around 1.6 million people died every year in 2,000 as a result of heightened temperatures; both heat and cold,” explains the lead researcher at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Dr. Andrea Pozzer.

“In the most probable scenario, by the end of the century, this number rises by about seven times increase (10.8 million people). Annual deaths linked to air pollution reached around 4.1 million in 2,000,” states Dr Pozzer who is also an adjunct associate professor at the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus.

“This figure climbs to 19.5 million people, a five times increase by the end of the century.”

The study predicts a major shift where extreme temperatures are gradually surpassing air pollution posing significant health risks in several countries led by South America and Eastern Europe.

The health risks associated with temperature levels are set to outweigh the health risks of air pollution for a fifth of the population globally by 2100, the analysis indicates. Other than harming the world’s ecosystems and climate, pollutant also impact significantly impact public health, according to the World Health Organization.

Climate change affects how air moves, which in turn changes how pollution travels. As air becomes more stagnant in a warmer future, pollution stays closer to the ground in higher amounts.  

Ground-level ozone forms when chemicals from things like car exhaust or factory emissions mix with sunlight. As the climate gets hotter and drier, more ozone will be produced.

Fine particles, like black carbon, soot, smoke, and dust, are tiny bits of solids and liquids floating in the air. These particles, which can cause lung problems, come from sources like factories, cars, and homes. Less rain means these particles stay in the air longer.

While both fine particles and ozone occur naturally, human activities have greatly increased their levels.

This, experts say, underscores the urgency to put in place intervention measures for mitigating the growing risk to public health and the overall climate change.

“Climate change, other than being an environmental concern, is also a direct threat to public health,” researchers say.

Cyprus Institute Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) director, Jean Sciare, opines that the findings, “highlight the critical importance of implementing decisive measures to prevent loss of life in the future by mitigating now.”

Further, the findings suggest a likelihood of significant regional differences in climate change-related deaths in the years to come. In high-income countries such as North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Australasia, extreme temperatures linked to deaths are set to exceed deaths related to air pollution.

Countries with the highest ageing population alongside heightened air pollution such as South and East Asia are projected to be the hardest hit. According to experts, this shift is already happening in countries like America, England, New Zealand, Japan and France.

The study published in November comes hot on the heels of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report which confirmed that 2024 was officially the warmest year breaking the record initially set by 2023.

2024 was the first year on record that the average global temperature levels temporarily surpassed the set pre-industrial levels at 1.5 degrees Celsius with global data on temperature levels dating back to 1850 showing alarming trends in escalating heat.

From January – September 2024, the average temperatures globally were above pre-industrial levels, stated WMO based on the six international datasets used to estimate the warmest year on record.

WMO further indicated that “The last 10 years have been the warmest forecasting that the average temperatures worldwide will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius for at least one year in the next five years.”

“Dozens of countries have been devastated by intense heat with temperatures going above 50 degrees Celsius on multiple occasions. Worldwide, forest fires have wreaked havoc,” stated WMO Secretary General, Celeste Saulo.

In his New Year address, the United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres stated, “I can officially report today that we have just endured a decade of deadly heat. The last decade including 2024 had the ten hottest years on record.”

“We are facing a real-time climate breakdown. We have no time to lose. We must get off this road to ruin,” he affirmed.
According to Global Adaptation Center, no part of the world was spared the crippling disasters occasioned by climate change in 2024 which impacted communities, ecosystems and economies.

Hitting the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark can result in aggravated weather events like floods and drought spells that ravaged several African countries including Kenya last year, as well as severe heat waves which impacted regions in Central America and Mexico.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) in its latest report disclosed that 2024 had an extra 41 days of dangerous heat which caused significant harm to human health and ecosystems.

The report shows that 26 of the 29 weather events in 2024 were intensified by climate change with the aftermaths being loss of life (around 3,700) and millions displaced.

The Paris Climate Agreement tasks 196 member nations with limiting the levels of global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius to mitigate the repercussions of climate disasters.

This threshold, however, is calculated over decades as opposed to years.

In limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, countries are required to significantly reduce emissions to achieve net zero carbon dioxide by 2050.
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