Kenya’s foreign minister is visiting Russia this week under pressure back home to convince Moscow to stop recruiting Kenyans into its military, but Nairobi – like other governments in Africa – is unlikely to take too confrontational an approach.
Reports in recent weeks revealed the scope and scale of the recruitment of Africans into Russia's depleted forces, often via third parties offering lucrative civilian jobs, triggering anger in countries like Kenya, Ghana and South Africa.
Families want more action to bring the recruits home but African governments, wary about overtly taking sides during Russia’s war in Ukraine , have avoided angering Moscow, mindful that the recruitment scandal has not yet triggered widespread public outcry or political heat.
"We want Kenyans stopped - they should not be enlisted at all," Musalia Mudavadi, Kenya’s minister for foreign affairs, told Reuters ahead of his trip. “We are getting a lot of pressure from some of the affected families who are now gathering more courage to come forward and speak to the issue.”
However, Mudavadi said he was “pragmatic and realistic” over the issue, describing Russia as a superpower with which Nairobi has had a long relationship.
“It's not a confrontation," he said. “This is about speaking to issues as they are and the distress that they're causing to the Kenyan people, and we need a joint effort to be able to resolve it."
The Russian defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment outside of usual business hours.
In a statement on March 12, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would discuss with Mudavadi the "state and prospects for the development of traditionally friendly Russian-Kenyan relations", including economic and trade partnerships.
Ukraine says that there are over 1,700 Africans fighting on the Russian side, though analysts say that figure is likely higher.
More than 1,000 Kenyans alone have been recruited, according to a report by the country’s intelligence agency. Mudavadi said he could not give a precise figure for Kenyans involved in the conflict.
In February, Ghana said more than 50 Ghanaians had been killed in the Ukraine war after being "lured into battle". Ghana’s foreign minister, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, told Reuters the true figure could be higher.
Ablakwa said Ghana has and would maintain diplomatic relations with Russia. “But let me be clear: where Ghanaian citizens are being harmed, deceived, or drawn into a war they did not understand, we will speak plainly and we will act,” he said.
Still most African governments are likely to take the cautious approach of South Africa, a Russian ally, which has seen dozens of its citizens duped into going to war in Ukraine.
"We're ... investigating the conditions under which people left," Zane Dangor, director general of South Africa's foreign affairs department, told Reuters.
"That investigation will also determine if Wagner has been involved," he said, in reference to the Russian mercenary force that was active in Africa and was succeeded by the Kremlin-controlled Africa Corps. Dangor said evidence so far did not point to involvement of the Russian state.
'Just scratching the surface'
Inpact, a Geneva-based organisation that has investigated the Russian recruitment networks, has verified several lists of recruits it obtained, including one that detailed 1,417 citizens from across the continent.
Cameroon, Egypt and Ghana were among the countries with most recruits, it said in a report published in February.
Inpact said the recruitment of Africans was the core of a deliberate strategy to beef up waves of soldiers meant to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive lines with waves of assaults.
“We think we are just scratching the surface with these numbers,” said Lou Osborn, a member of Inpact. Osborn said over 40 families had contacted the organisation since the report came out, confirming the methods of recruitment.
Ablakwa said he was working with other African countries to try to address the issue as a continental one.
“This is bigger than Ghana," he said. "If Africans are being lured into a foreign war through deception and exploitation, then Africa should respond collectively."
Pier Pigou, senior consultant at the International Crisis Group, said he didn't think the issue would dent relations between Russia and African countries until there was a significant political backlash.
"For the vast majority of people it's a case of 'these dudes are just trying to earn a living. And because their countries don't provide that for them, they're going to ... take opportunities that arise," he said.
