Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga addresses the party’s National Governing Council in the past.
Former Prime Minister’s Raila Odinga’s party is facing a major litmus test as competing political ambitions among members threaten to split the outfit ahead of the 2027 elections.
The party has found itself navigating turbulent waters with leaders eyeing the same seats in the coming election involved in fierce political battles that have put to test the unity within the 20-year-old outfit.
At the heart of the political turf wars are party members eyeing gubernatorial seats, which have attracted heavyweights in the party, setting the stage for bruising nomination battles that could leave the outfit in disarray ahead of the 2027 General Election.
In Migori, a political battle has been raging between Governor Ochilo Ayacko and Uriri MP Mark Nyamita who has declared his intention to contest the seat come 2027.
The rivalry between the two politicians has been steadily escalating, spilling over into funerals and public gatherings, with rival supporters clashing during such events.
Migori Governor Ochillo Ayacko at a past event. Photo | File
The latest showdown in the mounting bad blood between the two ODM members was in March 2025, which saw a football match at Migori Stadium turn violent after rival goons stormed the venue, deepening the rift between the two leaders.
In another incident, a burial ceremony in Awendo was cut short after goons allied to the warring factions clashed, leaving mourners scampering for safety.
Chief opposition
Mr Nyamita, serving his second term as MP, has positioned himself as the chief opposition to Governor Ayacko’s regime, believing he has what it takes to dislodge the current governor from the seat, setting the stage for bruising party primaries.
Uriri MP Mark Nyamita.
Despite vying on ODM ticket, Governor Ayacko was given a run for his money by former Migori MP John Pesa, who was contesting on DAP-K ticket.
The county chief garnered 175,226 votes against Mr Pesa’s 126,171 votes, but this was his third attempt at the seat, a slim margin considering the almost-fanatical support ODM enjoys in the region.
In Nairobi, a similar scenario is brewing with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino already signalling his readiness to go independent in a bid to claim Nairobi’s gubernatorial seat, expressing fears that he might not be fairly treated by ODM due to his open criticism of the broad-based government arrangement.
There are already claims that the party has a preferred candidate, which is causing anxiety among supporters of other aspirants.
According to the party’s constitution, ODM employs several methods to select candidates — direct nomination, secret ballot, or delegate-based selection.
However, the outfit’s nomination processes have previously sparked discontent, leading even to defections as was witnessed during the 2022 elections.
The method that the party will use to manage the competing interests could strengthen or weaken the party ahead of the next elections.
“I know that I will not be given the ticket, but it doesn’t matter because I know it’s the citizens who vote. I know ODM may not give me the ticket because Johnson Sakaja was endorsed at the Bomas of Kenya,” said Mr Owino.
“But I love Baba (Raila Odinga). In a family set-up, a father can love one child more than another, but that can’t make me bitter with my father or hate him.”
The two-term MP is facing a fight for the Nairobi governor’s seat from Makadara MP George Aladwa, who also doubles up as ODM Nairobi chairperson.
In what could further complicate the battle are reports that Governor Johnson Sakaja could opt to decamp to ODM in his re-election bid.
A group of newly-elected ODM grassroots officials and a number of delegates in Nairobi have already thrown their weight behind Mr Aladwa’s candidature, creating a headache for Mr Odinga.
Mr Aladwa, who served as the last mayor of Nairobi City Council from 2011 to 2013, had initially expressed interest in running for Vihiga governor, but sources suggest he was persuaded by the party to stay in Nairobi.
The former mayor believes his leadership has been instrumental in ODM’s dominance of Nairobi’s political landscape, evidenced by the party's significant representation in Parliament and the County Assembly.
Makadara MP George Aladwa. Photo | File
However, Mr Owino is considered a strong contender for the seat with his popularity among the youth, a key voting bloc in the capital city.
Nearly one million Luhyas live in Nairobi, making them the second-largest voting bloc after the Kikuyu.
With the raging turf wars within the party, ODM has called for a crisis meeting on Tuesday to iron out issues among members that have played out in public.
The Central Committee is one of the top organs of the party, and its meetings are usually chaired by the party leader. It is the organ that mediates internal disputes affecting the party.
According to the former premier, the outcome of the meeting should determine the party’s stance and direction on a number of issues.
“We have a Central Committee meeting on Tuesday where leaders shall share their opinions. From there, we shall have the party’s stand,” said Mr Odinga over the weekend.
In Kisumu, with Governor Nyong’o having served for two terms, the battle for his successor is now wide open with Nyakach MP Aduma Owuor already publicly declaring his interest in the seat.
Nyakach MP Aduma Owuor. Photo | File
Other heavyweights eyeing the seat are area senator Tom Ojienda, Kisumu Central MP Joshua Oron, and Woman Representative Ruth Odinga.
Last week, Senator Ojienda called on Mr Odinga to desist from endorsing his preferred candidates ahead of the 2027 elections and leave the local politics to the contestants to battle out amongst themselves.
The first-term senator argued that any move to endorse a preferred candidate would create unnecessary tensions within the ODM Party.
“We have to recognise that Raila has done a great job in shaping our collective destinies as a people. What he should avoid completely is telling us to vote for individuals he prefers. He should stop the public endorsement of candidates and let the voters elect the best candidate in their own assessment,” said Mr Ojienda.
In Luo Nyanza, an endorsement by the former premier is akin to having one foot on the political seat one is vying for; similarly, contesting on an ODM ticket greatly boosts one’s chances of securing their seat of choice.
Political grandstanding
In Kakamega, political grandstanding threatened to disrupt the party delegates' conference in the county last Friday, forcing the party leader to intervene.
The event is part of the buildup activities for the ODM@20 celebrations set for October 2025 and follows the just concluded party sub-branch and branch grassroots elections held in April.
The supremacy battles in the county pit current Governor Fernandes Barasa and friend-turned-foe Wycliffe Oparanya.
The two leaders have not been seeing eye-to-eye after a bitter fallout which has caused political tension within ODM in the county.
Mr Oparanya, a former ODM deputy party leader, fronted Mr Barasa as his preferred candidate and vigorously campaigned for him during the 2022 general elections.
But the leaders are now at a crossroads with the growing hostilities between the two only intensifying after the governor accused his predecessor of interfering with his administration to frustrate his development agenda.
Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa.
Governor Barasa, Kakamega ODM chairperson, is reported to have fallen out with several key leaders in the party from the county and his predecessor could look to support a different individual for the party's ticket to challenge his successor.
Kakamega is one of the strongholds of ODM and boasts of having the highest number of MPs and MCAs elected on the ODM party ticket.
In Homa Bay, political rivalry could be renewed between Governor Gladys Wanga and National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi.
The two were involved in a heated battle ahead of the 2022 elections, with Mr Mbadi being persuaded to shelve his gubernatorial ambitions in favour of Ms Wanga.
The former ODM chairperson reluctantly withdrew from the race in March 2022, some five months to the elections, admitting it was a difficult decision to make.
As a reward, the ex-National Assembly minority leader was given a nomination slot in the National Assembly before the deadly Gen Z protests gave him a lifeline in the new-look broad-based Cabinet.
Mr Mbadi boasts of 15 years as an MP for Suba South before serving some two years as a nominated MP.
In Siaya, Governor James Orengo is not resting easy with reports indicating that Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi or Budget and Appropriations Chairperson and Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi could challenge him for the gubernatorial seat in the 2027 polls.
National Assembly Chairperson on Budget Committee Samuel Atandi.
ODM has also announced it is embarking on a sweeping rebranding strategy aimed at rejuvenating its image, tightening internal structures, and rallying its support base ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The Central Committee has already set October 2025 as the month for convening the party’s National Delegates Conference.
The planned rebrand is part of a broader strategy to prepare the party for a vigorous campaign ahead of the 2027 polls as well as tackle several challenges that have emerged within the party.
At the heart of this is the rebuilding of the party from the ground up through grassroots elections that began in April and will continue in August in select areas where the process faced irregularities.
