ODM party leader Oburu Oginga (left) with deputy party leaders, Simba Arati and Godfrey Osotsi during the ODM@20 anniversary celebrations at Mama Ngina Waterfront in Mombasa on November 15, 2025.
Factions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are headed for a major political clash after party leader Oburu Oginga announced plans to declare the outfit’s position on President William Ruto’s re-election by June 2026.
The declaration appears to go against the wishes of the late Prime Minister Raila Odinga who – in his last public address in September 2025 – had advised party members to stick to the 10-point agenda negotiated between ODM and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) until 2027.
But Dr Oginga and a host of other ODM top leaders in support of the broad-based government have publicly hinted at backing Dr Ruto for a second term.
Nairobi County Senator Edwin Sifuna during an interview in his office.
Their decision has seen them clash with critics of the deal, led by Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo. The two leaders, on Monday, while in Vihiga at a function hosted by ODM co-deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, claimed a plot by some of the pro-broad-based government politicians to ‘sell ODM’ to President Ruto.
“We have not sent anybody as an ODM party to speak to anyone about positions in the government. We have not sent any broker to negotiate for ODM in the government.”
“As ODM, we say that the party has not decided the direction the party will take in 2027. The direction that ODM will take will be decided by the party members and not a few individuals. Raila himself told us that ODM has the strength to field a presidential candidate in 2027,” said Mr Sifuna.
Governor Orengo said ODM stands to lose if it agrees to enter a political arrangement with Dr Ruto’s UDA.
“I warn ODM against engaging in informal arrangements with the government without thinking, without sitting down properly and analysing the party moves without anyone’s influence. If you do so, in another year, your ODM will be a smaller party than it is today,” said Mr Orengo.
Political alignments
But while speaking at a thanksgiving prayer held at the home of Energy Cabinet Secretary (CS) Opiyo Wandayi on Tuesday, Dr Oginga said ODM would first complete all political alignments before making a definitive announcement.
In his address, Dr Oginga hinted at backing President Ruto’s re-election bid, observing that if faced with a choice between President Ruto and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua , the party would opt for the former.
“We shall complete all the political alignments by June 2026. It won’t go beyond June, I can assure you,” said Senator Oginga, brother of the late ODM leader, Raila Odinga.
Siaya Senator and ODM Party leader Oburu Oginga.
“As the party leader of ODM, I am limited, unlike other leaders. I cannot, for instance, declare one term or two terms. We shall sit and formulate a pre-poll agreement before giving the people direction.”
CS Wandayi criticised leaders opposing the broad-based formation, saying their reckless rhetoric neither builds unity nor honours the cause begun by the late former Prime Minister.
“And let me say this, for the avoidance of doubt. Those who are making noise out there were not present when we were negotiating this broad-based government.
“The noise they are making is not helpful. Baba was a foremost negotiator. Imagine a government where the Cabinet, as stipulated by the Constitution, has no more than 22 members - and a government our party and our people did not vote for - yet he secured six slots,” said the former Ugunja lawmaker.
Mr Wandayi further stated that ODM would enter into a pre-election pact with the ruling Kenya Kwanza administration.
Energy and Petroleum CS Opiyo Wandayi.
“Any time, every time political parties enter coalition agreements, there is naturally some form of negotiation. Such negotiations must be guided by the spirit of give and take. Therefore, those making noise, their noise is premature,” he said.
The 20-year-old is already facing a tough balancing act in keeping intact its strongholds post-Mr Odinga. The recent meeting between Luhya elders and two top ODM officials from the Western region exposed the widening rift within the party as it grapples to remain united.
The meeting, ostensibly to understand the Luhya community’s stand in the party, is just the latest in a series of cold political wars that have rocked the party since the demise of the former premier.
Facing dilemma
Driven by the feeling that other communities within ODM are being overlooked, the party under Dr Oginga is facing an existential dilemma, amid a restless political base complaining of being sidelined.
What started as opposition to the broad-based arrangement is now slowly turning into a political rebellion that could derail efforts to have a united ODM in 2027 and beyond, with tension palpable across its strongholds.
Early this month, Dr Oginga was left to attend a State House meeting for newly-elected broad-based MPs alone as several top ODM officials snubbed the meeting protesting over what they termed as “State House overreach”.
Already, several lawmakers are planning to ditch the party and seek re-election on other outfits in 2027.
Dwindling influence
Some of the legislators have cited the party’s dwindling influence in its strongholds of Gusii and Western in the wake of the emergence of new and attractive regional parties as well as expected political realignments ahead of the next polls.
“The impression that has been created looks like post-Raila, ODM seems not to be giving premium to other communities. (John) Mbadi always talks about us Luos, Raila left us broad-based, yet ODM is composed of other communities too,” said Mr Osotsi.
“That thing is causing some anxiety within the party. The party leaders need to consult widely, not just members but also the communities represented in the party, including Luhyas, Maasai, Kisii, Coasterians, and many more,” he added.
The Vihiga senator went on: “It is important that whatever direction the party takes should not only look at the interests of Luo Nyanza but encompass all other regions that support ODM. If they narrow it to look like a Luo Nyanza affair, then they will lose those regions.”
Mr Osotsi cited recent statements made by the party concerning the party’s political cooperation with the current government, which have been mostly unilateral.
He accused President Ruto of undermining ODM’s structure and instead engaging officials directly, creating rifts within the party.
The second-term lawmaker revealed that some decisions made by the outfit are made by two officials without involving the party’s central committee.
“I am a member of the central committee, and I should ideally be part of such decisions, but you know some decisions are made without going through the structures of the party. That is where the problem is,” said Mr Osostsi.
“I have said it before. Ruto has to engage the party through its structures. He cannot pick two people in the party, engage them, and say he has engaged the party. This habit of engaging people directly is what will create problems. I think it is not strategic.”
President Ruto’s shadow in ODM has created discomfort within the party, with some disgruntled officials accusing the UDA party leader of plotting a “silent coup” or being hell bent on disintegrating the party in a bid to inherit its traditional support bases.
Mr Osotsi said the Luhya elders’ meeting was to update them on the happenings in ODM after raising concerns over the community’s stake in the party post-Raila.
He said the community has contributed quite a lot to the party since 2007, standing with the outfit not only in Western but also in Nairobi.
“ODM has been winning seats in Nairobi because of the unity among communities that support the party. But with the apparent happenings, they felt like Luhya interests are not being catered for in the party. So they wanted to know from us what is happening,” said Mr Osotsi.
The senator said the elders were also concerned by infighting in the party as well as contradictory statements coming from national office over how to handle 2027 polls.
ODM has been issuing ambiguous statements over its support for the Kenya Kwanza government and the future of the political relationship.
Factions have been quietly emerging within the party as leaders seek to upstage each other in the succession battle.
ODM’s top hierarchy consists of the party leader, chairperson Gladys Wanga, her three deputies – Kisii Governor Simba Arati, his Mombasa counterpart Abdulswamad, and Mr Osotsi – and SG Sifuna.
Governors Wanga, Abdulswamad, and Arati have been vocal in their support for President Ruto and the broad-based government, saying ODM will either form the next government or be part of it.
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