ODM Party Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna (right) campaigns for the Magarini ODM candidate Harrison Kombe ahead of the November 27 by-election. Mr Sifuna alleges a plot by President Ruto to have him dismissed as ODM secretary general.
The broad-based government fashioned by President William Ruto and former PM Raila Odinga is shaken by disagreements, clashing ambitions, contradictory messages and warnings from top figures on both sides.
What began as an attempt to stabilise the country following Gen-Z protests in June last year is being tested by hardline positions, clashing expectations and a widening gap between public assurances and behind-the-scenes manoeuvres.
From the Kasipul by-election drama to demands for top seats in 2027; United Democratic Alliance (UDA) hardliners drawing red lines to Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leaders reviving the language of mass action; to ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna alleging a plot to kick him from his position, the broad-based arrangement is struggling to hold together.
During the recent ODM@20 celebrations in Mombasa, Mr Sifuna said the President’s camp has hatched a scheme “to deal with me”.
Abductions
He added that he is ready to work with any leader who is opposed to Dr Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid.
“I was at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre when ODM signed an agreement with UDA – the 10-point agenda – but abductions and killing of youths are still happening,” he said.
Each camp is speaking loudly – sometimes against its allies – prompting questions on what direction the government and the country will take.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei (UDA) fired a salvo to ODM, saying though UDA remains committed to the broad-based partnership, there are conditions, especially when it comes to succession and power-sharing.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei.
“Two seats are not negotiable – the presidency and the deputy presidency,” he said.
The senator added that as coalition alignments for 2027–32 emerge, only one running mate is acceptable in UDA.
“The deputy of President William Ruto is Prof Abraham Kithure Kindiki,” Mr Cherargei said.
“I tell our colleagues in the broad-based government and those aspiring to work with us that the two top seats are taken. You can ask for others.”
His remarks were interpreted as a pre-emptive strike against ODM’s agitation for the deputy presidency in 2027 – an idea championed by ODM leader Oburu Oginga.
“If we have to go for a lower position in any formation, it must be the number two. We should not take anything less than that,” the Siaya senator said.
But it is the messy Kasipul by-election that has openly revealed the contradictions in the broad-based pact.
ODM leaders say their partners are undermining the unity that the broad-based arrangement is supposed to symbolise.
Homa Bay Town MP Peter Opondo Kaluma voiced frustration over “confusing signals” from UDA politicians campaigning against Kasipul ODM candidate Boyd Were ahead of tomorrow’s by-election.
“Some of our colleagues in the broad-based government are campaigning for the independent candidate Philip Aroko. It is confusing our people,” Mr Kaluma said.
He accused former Migori governor Okoth Obado – now UDA Nyanza coordinator – of “coming all the way from Migori to campaign with Aroko”.
Mr Kaluma listed other “troubling” incidents.
“UDA activist Odoyo Owidi is campaigning for the independent candidate and insulting us. Former Nairobi governor Evans Kidero has also met Aroko. What are they showing our people?” the Homa Bay Town MP asked.
He described the independent candidate as “a prime suspect in the murder of Kasipul MP Ong’ondo Were”, adding that the situation is intimidating Kasipul voters and undermining ODM.
President William Ruto shares a light moment with Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga when he visited Siaya County on January 14, 2023.
“We cannot be in the broad-based government with a UDA team that is campaigning for an ODM opponent,” Mr Kaluma said and demanded President William Ruto’s intervention.
“They are intimidating people. They fired shots at Ong’ondo Were’s home the other day. This manipulation of the election must stop.”
Cool the tempers
Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot, however, has attempted to cool the tempers.
“Our candidate in Kasipul is Boyd Were of ODM,” Mr Cheruiyot said.
“Anybody operating to the contrary is defying President Ruto, who is our party leader. You cannot claim to be our friend when you undermine the people working with us.”
He accused unnamed individuals of political duplicity.
“Conmen have infiltrated our politics. At night, they do things that are different from what they say during the day,” he said.
The Kericho senator defended the broad-based arrangement.
“It is important to us all. ODM and Nyanza never made any mistake in joining the government,” Mr Cheruiyot said.
“If there are issues, let us address them internally. Every house has challenges.”
If Mr Cheruiyot was attempting to extinguish fires, Siaya Governor James Orengo was doing the opposite.
During the ODM@20 celebrations, Mr Orengo said ODM would neither be intimidated nor blindly absorbed into government.
“There are those who are comfortable and roaring everywhere that we are in the broad-based government,” he said.
“They forget that the leading opposition party in the National Assembly and Senate is ODM.”
The Siaya governor said ODM must keep its identity, organisational strength and capacity to confront the government when necessary.
“If ODM is strong and you stand for what Raila Odinga wanted – a strong and free country – we must be ready to fight.”
Remain vigilant
Mr Orengo then delivered his most stinging line: “Ruto needs ODM. It’s not ODM that needs Ruto.”
Calling on young people to remain vigilant, he said ODM risks being reduced to a party of cowards.
“You cannot go around saying we will either be in government or part of the government. A strong party like ODM must be sure of what it wants,” he said.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino also challenged the party leaders. He said he is ready for a higher office and demanded to be told why ODM sidelined him in recent appointments.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino speaks during the World Teachers Day Celebrations at Kenya Science Campus in Nairobi on October 5, 2025.
Mr Owino renewed his call for mass action.
“Should the cost of living continue shooting up, we will return to the streets, whether they like it or not,” he said.
Another ideological current has emerged from the Ramogi Professional Caucus (RPC) – urging Nyanza to work with the government.
RPC chairman Joshua Nyamorim said the region must choose “strategy over confrontation.”
“There is evidence that confrontation only leads to our isolation,” he said.
He praised President Ruto’s “respectful and magnanimous engagement” with the region, citing the government’s role in Odinga’s funeral and the many projects in Nyanza.
UDA insiders, especially from Mt Kenya East, say dropping Prof Kindiki as DP would be political suicide.
“Our loyalty is tied to Kindiki’s place in the leadership structure,” Buuri MP Mugambi Rindikiri said.
UDA Deputy Secretary-General Omboko Milemba.
However, UDA Deputy Secretary-General Omboko Milemba downplayed the rifts, saying ODM is free to express its ambitions and that coalition discussions would require compromise.
Kasipul has exposed fractures, while the deputy presidency has triggered friction. Speeches during the ODM event in Mombasa revealed deepening ideological differences.
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