The fate that befell the National Super Alliance (Nasa) and Cord coalitions now appears to be hanging over the Azimio La Umoja - One Kenya coalition, with the outfit on the verge of a messy collapse two years after its formation.
The coalition, which was formed ahead of the August 2022 elections to challenge President William Ruto, is threatening to explode with co-leaders reading from different political scripts.
At the heart of recent sharp divisions among the coalition's co-principals is a dispute over whether the group should be part of President William Ruto's mooted broad-based government.
What began as ODM support for calls for a national dialogue and an all-inclusive government, much to the chagrin of other Azimio members, has now turned into a full-blown split, with the coalition facing a messy split.
While Raila Odinga's ODM party has indicated that it is ready to go it alone and join the long-awaited government, other coalition members are opposed to the idea.
Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper, former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa's DAP-Kenya, and Martha Karua's Narc Kenya and Jubilee - some of the major parties in the 23-party coalition - have been outspoken in their opposition to the idea.
But Wednesday's ugly events, which saw leaders attacked by thugs, could be the final straw.
“We will not be part of the proposed broad-based or any other government with the Kenya Kwanza coalition,” reads in part the resolution read by Mr Musyoka.
To join or not to join appears to be the sticking point with affiliates pushing for a national convention and not dialogue as well as sweeping reforms in the government and justice for victims of the ongoing anti-government demonstrations.
So untidy is the impending divorce that a coalition statement, which was being read by co-principal Kalonzo Musyoka on Wednesday, was aborted midway after goons interrupted the event at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation (Joof) in Nairobi.
Tellingly, the resolution read by the former vice president differed from a prior statement from the ODM parliamentary group meeting.
Interestingly, Mr Odinga left the venue before Mr Musyoka’s statement for an “important meeting” and all of a sudden the Wiper party leader was left flanked by Party of National Unity leader Peter Munya, former Meru governor, Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, who is a Wiper party member and a few other leaders.
Makueni Governor Mutula Kilonzo Junior said the point of departure is the coalition not agreeing on the way forward on whether the dialogue can be while inside the government or outside.
“We have had disagreements before but it has never reached the levels seen on Wednesday. It is the worst form of intolerance,” said Mr Kilonzo Junior.
“As far as I am concerned, it is also a sign that our partners in Azimio are also tired of Kalonzo. I don’t see the future of Azimio. Trust me,” he added.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said they have always pushed for a national convention where everyone has the chance to participate in the process and not an ad hoc arrangement.
“We don’t want Azimio to be destabilised by external forces. It will be too early to say that (Azimio is dead) but we are alert. The country must move together. It is not a club of a few people in a certain corner. If you are not doing that then you are wasting time,” said Mr Maanzo.
Speaking in an interview with a local television, Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai said he believes Azimio has served its purpose and should now be dissolved.
The county legislator argued that the main intention of forming the coalition in the run-up to the 2022 general election was to win the presidential seat but which unluckily did not happen.
“ODM will not accept to be dictated on what should be done. You can’t be in opposition and most of your people are in government,” said Mr Alai.
“We see a situation where we are being led by people who have different interests, we were supposed to win an election and so if this is going to be the end of Azimio, so be it,” he added.
Formed in March 2022 but registered a month later, Azimio coalition political party is composed of 23 parties including the ODM, the Jubilee Party, NARC–Kenya, DAP-Kenya, Kanu, and other parties.
The outfit’s sole purpose was to take on Dr Ruto who had broken ranks with his boss, former President Uhuru Kenyatta who was now backing his political nemesis Mr Odinga.
However, the ODM leader was defeated by Dr Ruto in the hotly contested polls by a paltry 200,000 votes.
Cracks in the coalition soon began emerging in February last year when questions started being raised on whether Kanu party leader Gideon Moi was still part of the coalition.
The former Baringo senator had been missing from participating in any of the outfit’s activities with his silence loud leading to Senator Maanzo saying only Wiper and ODM are still in the coalition after most of Jubilee MPs decamped to work with President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance.
The disagreements have been boiling over within the coalition with Mr Wamalwa at one point openly opposing the national dialogue committee report.
Ms Karua and Jubilee secretary-general Jeremiah Kioni would also read from different scripts on several matters and at one point threatened to form a breakaway outfit dubbed Kamwene.
According to political pundits, Azimio is treading the same path trodden by its precursors including the National Super Alliance (Nasa) and Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord).
“The more things change, the more they remain the same as this is a similar script that has been used before by Raila after losing an election,” said Robert Omosundi, a political commentator.
Cord was an alliance formed in 2012 ahead of the 2013 elections. It comprised at least 12 parties with Mr Odinga as its leader with Mr Musyoka, who was the former’s running mate, and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, with his Ford-Kenya party, as some of the luminaries.
The other parties were Kenya Social Congress, Kadu-Asili, the Peoples Democratic Party, Chama Cha Mzalendo, the Muungano Party, Federal Party of Kenya, United Democratic Movement, Chama Cha Mwananchi and the Mkenya Solidarity Movement.
However, Musalia Mudavadi had been wooed to join the coalition only for him to grow cold feet after he was not assured of being the outfit’s flagbearer.
He at some point came close to signing a deal with the Uhu-Ruto wing but would later go it alone in the polls.
In a stinging response to the failure to get Mr Mudavadi, Mr Odinga said Kenyans know what they want and a few leaders can be bought but not an entire community or country.
“Kenyans are too savvy now to be herded like sheep to alliances that serve nothing but their leaders’ interests,” he said.
The coalition would not stand to see the 2017 election and was dissolved after years of disagreements and squabbling. Enter Nasa.
The coalition was composed of familiar faces with the addition of Mudavadi, who had run for president in 2013 but was now shelving his presidential ambitions in favour of Mr Odinga.
Nasa was a political vehicle for Mr Odinga to try to stop Mr Kenyatta and Dr Ruto from winning a second term.
But cracks would soon emerge in the outfit after the infamous swearing of Mr Odinga in Uhuru Park. The cracks would widen thereafter after the former premier entered into a handshake with Mr Kenyatta in March 2018.
Further, ODM party had been reluctant to share political parties’ funds with his coalition partners while Mr Odinga also reneged on a deal to back one of the principals in the next elections, saying the deal only held if he were to win the 2017 presidential election.
“The statement by Raila Odinga that he’ll not endorse any of his Nasa colleagues because they failed to show up at his illegal swearing-in is unfortunate and reeks of indefensible deceit,” read a statement by Mr Mudavadi’s Spokesman Kibisu Kabatesi.
Just like its predecessor Cord, Nasa would also suffer the same fate as mistrust, betrayal and competing ambitions sent the coalition down its deathbed.
Mr Musyoka, Wetangula and Mudavadi, together with Chama Cha Mashinani of Isaac Ruto, former Bomet governor, would write to the Registrar of Political Parties of their intention to call it quits.
According to Article 15 (1) of the Coalition Agreement, the coalition shall stand dissolved when any three of the coalition parties decide to leave the coalition.
Nasa dissolved once Ms Anne Nderitu gave the go-ahead for the withdrawal of the four parties from the coalition.
“Political party coalitions are built on trust. Once that trust is eroded, the partnership cannot survive. Mindful of this trust deficit, our three parties transparently informed the Kenyan people of their individual decision to leave the NASA Coalition,” ANC, Wiper and Ford Kenya leaders said while announcing their resolve.
Mr Musyoka, Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Mudavadi then joined forces with Kanu’s Gideon Moi to form the One Kenya Alliance, which was touted as the third force in the 2022 elections.
In the end, Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Mudavadi jumped ship to form the Kenya Kwanza alliance while Mr Musyoka and Mr Moi would join Azimio.
