After Gachagua ouster, which way Mt Kenya?

Mt Kenya has historically played a decisive role in presidential elections, the choice of whom the region supports could affect the broader political landscape in the country. 

If Mr Gachagua's ouster leads to significant discontent as it appears to have, it could affect the Kenya Kwanza coalition’s grip on the region, impacting the coalition’s position as the country moves toward the next general election.

Mr Gachagua’s impeachment, political analysts say, brings Mt Kenya to a political crossroads.

Following former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s retirement and Mr Gachagua’s election to the nation’s second-highest office in 2022, the former Mathira MP emerged as Mt Kenya’s political supremo.

But his impeachment has sparked a scramble among regional leaders jostling for control of the region.

Mr Gachagua whose advocates promised to continue battling legal cases in court in a bid to save his post and secure his political future, could be barred from holding public office should the judiciary uphold his ouster, a move that would end his political career.
 
With his political future now being uncertain, a number of leaders from the region are keen on having political control of the region.

Supremacy battle

Some of those involved in the region’s supremacy battle include; five leaders who were part of president William Ruto’s six possible nominees for Mr Gachagua’s replacement.

The Head of State had drawn a list of six nominees, with five from Mt Kenya region as his possible choices for deputy president after Mr Gachagua’s removal from office.

Through Chief of Staff and Head of Public Service Felix Koskei, president Ruto submitted the names to the Registrar of Political Parties (RPP) Anne Nderitu for her action.

The names included Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Prof Kindiki, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah, Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire and her Murang’a counterpart Irungu Kang’ata.
In the letter dated October 17, 2024 seen by Nation, Ms Nderitu was requested to provide details of their membership to a political party, and whether they were officials in any political party.

Article 77 (2) of the constitution prohibits any appointed State officer from holding office in a political party. 
“In consideration of the aforementioned constitutional and statutory requirements regarding filling of the vacancy in the office of the Deputy President.

“In regard to the leadership and integrity, the Registrar of Political Parties is hereby requested to provide the details on the candidates being considered for nomination to the position of Deputy President,” states the letter by Mr Koskei in part.
Prof Kindiki (Tharaka Nithi) who bagged the post and is the deputy president designate after the three-judge bench cleared his way for swearing in now ranks above his colleagues in the battle to have control of the vote-rich region.

Ms Waiguru (Kirinyaga), Mr Ichung’wa (Kiambu) and Mr Kang’ata (Murang’a) may have failed to secure the nomination, but coming from Mt Kenya West which is regarded as the political house of Mt Kenya politics, analysts say, they might still raise their political stars if they play their cards well.

Ms Mbarire (Embu) comes from Mt Kenya East so as Prof Kindiki.

Wanjigi?

Further still, former Safina Party presidential aspirant Jimi Wanjigi who hails from Murang’a county has also been putting his best feet forward in his quest to become the region’s supremo and make a stab at the presidency in 2027 election.

Mr Wanjigi on the other hand has been critical of Dr Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration which he has accused of “running down the economy.”

Coming from the opposition side, and with the feud in Mt Kenya region over claims of political betrayal orchestrated on them by president Ruto, Mr Wanjigi who has been critical of the government could rip from the discontent of the region with the Ruto regime.

Mr Wanjigi argues that president Ruto has not only betrayed the Mt Kenya region but the country at large.
“As we are talking today, he did not pass his Finance Bill, it was rejected. That is synonymous to a vote of no confidence in his government.

“He is now presiding over a bankrupt government – in terms of money and ideas. He should save us anymore further pain and we literary demand a general election,” Mr Wanjigi told Nation. 

Martha Karua

Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua who ran for the presidency alongside Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga as his running mate in the 2022 election is also among the top leaders eying the region’s support.

In the wake of Mr Gachagua’s impeachment, she has come out in his defense, a move that is seen as aimed at winning his supporters to his side.

“Rigathi Gachagua is no angel but like any citizen, he deserves due process not mob lynching. What we must all be painfully aware of is that participating or acquiescing to the violation of another person’s rights, is laying the foundation of the violation of your own rights,” Ms Karua observes.

She believes that parliament “manipulated a constitutional process with impunity,” in Mr Gachagua’s removal from office.

“They sacrificed the spirit and ideals of constitutionalism on the altar of self-preservation,” she said.

Former president Uhuru Kenyatta is also seen as a very influential figure in Mt Kenya politics having remained the party leader of his Jubilee party.

Appearing in public for the first time after several months on Thursday last Week, Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni said Mr Kenyatta was “as fit as a fiddle and will soon make circuits in the Kenya space.”

Mr Kioni told Nation that Mt Kenya is currently in a position where it needs direction than never before.

“Certainly they know they are in need of a direction than never before. They know that William (Ruto) and UDA was a big mistake.

“They also know that the fact that they are not in a political party makes them extremely vulnerable,” Mr Kioni told Nation.
He however, pointed out that there is a growing consensus in the region that “if they front one of their own to run the country, William (Ruto) will find it easy to campaign against that person. So that’s the issue that is on the table and with the guidance of Uhuru without doubt, we will eventually be able to get there,” said Mr Kioni.

He says that the people of Mt Kenya region will agree on which direction they want to go.

“I have been at the forefront saying that we don’t want a Mt Kenya presidential candidate now, it is not that I cannot put my name on the table but there is one narrative that we don’t want one of our own in the front and some of us have picked on Kalonzo (Musyoka) as a possible presidential candidate whom we are trying to sell to the community.”

Ndindi Nyoro

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro has also been mentioned in the Mt Kenya power struggle, even though he has in the recent past kept a low profile.

For Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, he hopes to use his The Service Party (TSP) as a political vehicle to offer an alternative voice for Mt Kenya region.

Political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli argues that Mt Kenya region was already unsettled even before Mr Gachagua’s impeachment. 

“The problem is that the people of Mt Kenya had hopes in UDA after it promised them heaven It promised the son but have not even delivered the moon and this is the cause of unease in the region,” Prof Naituli added.

He argues that the region will definitely make an independent choice regarding its future political prospects and leadership.

In the 2022 election, president Ruto was overwhelmingly voted by the region, both Mt Kenya East, West and its diaspora of Nakuru and Laikipia counties to clinch the top seat.

Mt Kenya East has Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties, where president Ruto secured 398,946, 187,981 and 145,081 votes respectively totaling to 732,008 votes against Azimio candidate MrRaila Odinga’s 103,679, 31,209 and 15,062 votes respectively, a total of 149,950 votes.

In Mt Kenya West which has Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu counties, president Ruto got a total of 1,632,788 votes against Mr Odinga’s 423,295 votes.

Dr Ruto secured 189,519, 272,507, 220,984, 343,349 and 606,429 votes in Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu respectively while Mr Odinga had 49,228, 52,052, 37,909, 73,526 and 210,580 votes in that order.

In Nakuru and Laikipia counties, Dr Ruto managed 455,864 and 119,142 votes respectively against Mr Odinga’s 226,052 and 48,908 votes.

[email protected]