ODM leader Raila Odinga is facing a litmus test as his party gears up for grassroots elections next month amid a raging succession battle.
Mr Odinga’s quest for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) has triggered intense jostling for the top seat, with senior officials scheming to exploit the party elections to plant their allies with an eye on taking over should the former premier succeed in his bid.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna told Nation on Wednesday that the outfit’s planned April elections remain unchanged.
“Nothing has changed in our plan. The party elections will be on from April 1,” said Mr Sifuna.
ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya said he will be seeking to retain his position with plans of succeeding Mr Odinga as the party boss in the event he exits local politics.
“If he succeeds in his AU bid and may not be available to play local politics, I will ask for the party leadership. I know there could be other people who are also interested,” said Mr Oparanya.
He, however, denied the emergence of factions in the party.
Mr Joho, whose absence in the political scene had been conspicuous, recently re-emerged, declaring his bid for the presidency in 2027 on an ODM ticket,.
“I’m done with Mombasa politics. I want to be President. I’ve heard some people say they will also be going for the presidency; I also want to tell them that I’ll be in the race,” Mr Joho declared in the presence of Mr Odinga.
Sources within the party indicated factional fights pitting Mr Joho against Mr Oparanya. National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohammed is said to be in Mr Joho’s camp.
The succession struggle is likely to spill over to the party grassroots elections as each camp would be seeking to install their loyalists in key party positions.
Similarly, there is a vicious power struggle in Luo Nyanza politics as key players jostle to take over the mantle from Mr Odinga.
National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi and ODM National Chairman John Mbadi are some of the top names being mentioned as potential successors to Mr Odinga in the region.
Last week on Thursday, the leaders convened an informal meeting of Luo Nyanza MPs — also known as “Duol” — at Mr Wandayi’s office in Parliament to discuss the welfare of the community as well as the probable exit of Mr Odinga from local politics.
In attendance were Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, who is Mr Odinga’s elder brother, Mr Wandayi, Mr Mbadi, Ruaraka MP TJ Kajwang’ , among others.
Dr Oburu is said to have downplayed the concerns raised on Mr Odinga’s possible exit, assuring the politicians that there will be no leadership vacuum.
Dr Oburu said that Mr Wandayi will continue to lead Opposition troops in Parliament courtesy of his position as the minority leader while Mr Mbadi will focus on strengthening the party courtesy of his position as the chairman.
According to our sources, another meeting was to be held in Parklands, Nairobi, last week but with only Dr Oginga, Mr Wandayi and Mr Mbadi invited.
However, the meeting failed to take place following the pronouncement of Mr Odinga’s wife Ida at a public forum in Suba South Constituency that appeared to endorse Mr Mbadi as the next Luo Nyanza kingpin.
“Mbadi, for all these years that Baba [Mr Odinga] has trained you, do you still need more training? Aren’t you capable? That is where Baba’s heart is.” Ms Ida had said on February 23 in Nyandiwa.
In September last year, Dr Oginga had subtly endorsed Mr Wandayi to take over from Mr Odinga should he exit the political stage.
“Leaders grow like mushrooms. That is how Opiyo Wandayi is growing and nothing will stop him from being the top leader. These are the people who will now lead us and give us direction,” Dr Oginga had said.
“My statements have been misinterpreted,” the senator said, adding that the insinuation “should be disregarded.”
The ongoing membership registration drive has also lifted a lid on the simmering regional power struggle pitting incumbents, especially governors, and other leaders eyeing their jobs.
Mr Odinga witnessed chaotic scenes in Busia in January after Governor Paul Otuoma was heckled over his alleged links to the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance in what was linked to the 2027 contest for the party ticket.
An attempt by Mr Odinga in 2014 to hold party elections at the Kasarani stadium in Nairobi aborted after a group of youths stormed the venue.
It was later claimed that the youths were hired by senior party officials to nip in the bud “attempts by external forces” to take over by planting their lackeys in key positions.
